Value chains & chokepoints
The Iran war has reached a costly stalemate six months after U.S. and Israeli forces attacked Iran, killing its supreme leader and maiming his successor. The U.S. has shifted to economic warfare, imposing sanctions and a naval blockade to cut off Iran's oil revenues and financial lifelines, but Tehran believes it can outlast the pressure.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of economic statecraft, showing how sanctions and blockades are being used as tools of coercion in a prolonged geopolitical confrontation.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Piracy attacks off Somalia have reached their highest levels since 2013, with at least 15 attacks reported since the start of 2026, according to an AFP analysis of IMO data. Eight attacks have occurred in the Gulf of Aden since May, and the largest attack targeted the oil tanker Honour 25 on April 21, taking 17 crew members hostage. The figures remain far below the peak of around 200 attacks recorded in 2011.
Why it matters: This surge in piracy highlights the theme of maritime security disruptions affecting global shipping routes.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Six months into the Iran war, OPEC+ has lost its ability to influence oil prices as the conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz and damaged infrastructure, reducing its market share. China's oil imports have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels since the war began, making it the new swing demand center and capping global prices.
Why it matters: This shift highlights the theme of energy security and the changing balance of power in global oil markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Iran blacklisted 12 VLCCs involved in shuttle tanker trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 900,000 barrels per day, or 16% of Middle East Gulf crude lifted since early July. The vessels accounted for 24% of crude transferred ship-to-ship outside Hormuz. Iran threatened blacklisted vessels with fines, detention, and cargo confiscation, and warned that ships conducting STS operations with them could be added to the list. At least three Indian refiners and a global energy major planned to stop using blacklisted vessels due to security concerns.
Why it matters: This threatens the resilience of the shuttle tanker system, a key workaround for Gulf exporters during the crisis, and could tighten Hormuz flows further, impacting global energy supply chains.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The United States imposed sweeping sanctions on nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, including more than a dozen Hong Kong- and mainland-based entities and individuals, for helping procure sensitive goods or shipping Iranian oil. Washington also signaled readiness to deploy secondary sanctions on countries that refuse to cut economic ties with Iran.
Why it matters: This escalation tests the recent bilateral detente between Washington and Beijing, threatening trade, payments, and supply chains, which are central to the briefing's theme of US-China economic decoupling.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iran's top diplomat met Qatar's foreign minister in Tehran for talks on the Strait of Hormuz, amid a US naval blockade that has prevented Iran from importing enough petrol to cover a domestic shortfall. The talks focused on de-escalation and freedom of navigation, and followed separate meetings with Oman and Pakistan. Iran has been in talks with Oman over a framework for a temporary shipping corridor, but insists the strait will not reopen unless Washington lifts its blockade and sanctions.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of maritime chokepoint security and the economic impact of sanctions on regional states.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Kazakhstan has declined to export oil and gas products to Russia from some of its largest refineries despite approved shipments, partly due to concerns about secondary sanctions and record domestic demand. However, a small refinery in West Kazakhstan will process Russian crude and return most products to Russia. Analysts estimate Russian refinery output will be 30 percent lower in late 2026 compared to seasonal averages.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy security and geopolitical leverage, as Kazakhstan balances Russian pressure with sanctions risks.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Ukraine has struck Russian oil refineries and warehouses of online retailers Wildberries and Ozon, causing significant losses and fuel price increases. Russia has targeted Ukraine's power system and retail infrastructure, including shopping centers, resulting in civilian deaths and power outages. Both sides are attacking economic targets to undermine each other's foreign currency generation, with neither campaign proving decisive.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of economic warfare, where both sides target infrastructure to degrade the other's economic capacity and foreign currency earnings.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Electric vehicle sales in Africa have surged, with electric car sales rising from 4,000 units in 2023 to 25,000 in 2025, and electric motorbikes being adopted fastest. Local assembly of EVs from Chinese components is lowering costs, and countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have implemented policies such as banning combustion vehicle imports and conventional moto-taxi registrations. Off-grid solar and battery swapping stations are seen as ways to overcome weak power grids.
Why it matters: This trend illustrates the theme of technological leapfrogging, as Africa may bypass traditional infrastructure and import patterns to adopt EVs and solar charging.
green tech supply chain
DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi called for the Lobito Corridor to be transformed into a tool for economic sovereignty during a signing ceremony with Angolan President João Lourenço. The rail and logistics project, over 1,000 kilometers, connects the Port of Lobito to mineral-rich regions and Zambia, with an indicative investment of nearly US$1.258 billion. Tshisekedi stressed the need to move from intentions to achievements.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of infrastructure as a lever for economic sovereignty and regional integration, a key focus of the briefing.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Americas
Iran's floating oil storage has declined from 192 million barrels in mid-April to about 80 million barrels at the end of August, according to Kpler. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is 100% effective, preventing tankers from exiting the Gulf and limiting loading at Kharg Island. At current discharge rates, Iran's export reserve afloat will dry up early in the New Year.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of economic warfare, as the blockade and sanctions are exerting decisive pressure on Iran's oil exports and financial resources.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Maglut Heavy Industries has publicly launched its chromatography-based platform for processing and refining rare earth elements in the US, unveiling its ARC-1 separation system. The water-based process, inspired by biotechnology, is intended as an alternative to solvent extraction and has been tested at pilot scale, achieving purities of 99.9% and above. The launch coincides with new regulations effective January 2027 requiring US defence contractors to remove Chinese sources from their rare earth magnet supply chains.
Why it matters: This development directly addresses the briefing's theme of critical minerals supply chain security, highlighting efforts to rebuild domestic rare earth processing capacity in the US.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · sanctions export controls
MSTA Canada is urging federal and provincial governments to provide more support to small and medium-sized mining suppliers amid tariff escalation, citing that over 75% of its members report trade friction compromising their operations. The association supports retaliatory tariffs but requests targeted financing tools, growth capital, and direct market-entry assistance to help SMEs diversify and grow. It also seeks direct inclusion in trade policy discussions.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of trade policy impacts on supply chains and the need for government support to maintain competitiveness.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The US State Department posted a video in early August detailing the Monroe Doctrine, which the Trump administration cites to assert dominance over Latin America. China has become the region's second-largest trading partner and top creditor, with investments in lithium mines, megaports, and a proposed transcontinental railway. The US has pressured Latin American countries, including threatening visa revocations in Argentina and influencing Chile to scrap an undersea cable project, while China's ambassador to Chile accused the US of 'coercive diplomacy'.
Why it matters: This dynamic illustrates the theme of great-power competition over critical minerals and infrastructure in the energy transition.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain