Today's items converge on the theme of strategic dependencies and realignments. China's dominance in critical mineral refining, highlighted in the value chains section, intersects with Africa's surging solar imports, mainly from China, reshaping energy governance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, in Europe, US assurances to NATO allies are questioned amid conflicting intelligence, while Iran's economic strain—foreign trade down 35% and inflation at 66%—reflects the toll of sanctions and war, prompting Gulf states to seek new defensive partners in Asia-Pacific. These threads underscore how economic and security pressures are redrawing alliances and supply chains across regions.
Value chains & chokepoints
China controls an average 70% market share of refining for 19 of 20 strategic energy-related minerals, and leads in refined copper, lithium, cobalt, and manganese. In 2025, China produced about 13 million tons of refined copper (47% of global output), 235,000 tons of refined lithium chemicals (74%), 180,000 tons of refined cobalt (76%), and 2.14 million tons of refined natural graphite (95%). Indonesia leads in refined nickel with 45% of global output, while China is second with over 31%.
Why it matters: This concentration of refining capacity underscores the theme of critical mineral supply chain dependencies, a key concern for energy transition geopolitics.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
The war has forced Gulf leaders to recognize that neither the United States nor China can protect them from Iranian attacks. Iran warned that a future war with the US could spread and target regional infrastructure. Gulf states are seeking new defensive partners, with Kuwait signing a military cooperation agreement with Pakistan.
Why it matters: This reflects the shifting balance of power in the Middle East, a key theme in the briefing on geopolitical realignments.
great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
US President Donald Trump said Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, citing his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His comments followed CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Moscow, which US media reported was an attempt to dissuade Russia from attacking NATO members. A senior EU official said European intelligence agencies see no sign of a Russian attack on European NATO countries.
Why it matters: This statement touches on the theme of transatlantic security and the credibility of US assurances to NATO allies amid conflicting intelligence assessments.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
After six months of war with the US and Israel, Iran's foreign trade has fallen by about 35 percent and annual inflation reached 66 percent last month, according to President Masoud Pezeshkian. The government has made countering the economic effects of sanctions and war a priority, including curbing inflation and reducing dollar dependence. Meanwhile, the US is intensifying financial pressure, urging countries to cut trade ties with Iran, though it has avoided direct sanctions on China and India. Oil sales provided temporary relief during a brief truce, but the end of that arrangement has renewed pressure.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of economic statecraft, showing how sanctions and conflict reshape a state's economic priorities and external trade relations.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Solar energy imports, mainly from China, are surging in Africa in 2026, with an estimated 17 gigawatts of additional capacity to be installed, a 45% increase from last year. This growth is largely decentralized, as three-quarters of the new energy is 'distributed'—rooftop panels feeding households directly without national grids. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and Egypt are seeing particularly high growth rates.
Why it matters: This trend complicates state management of energy policy, a key concern for the theme of energy governance and state capacity.
green tech supply chain
Mutinous soldiers in Niger attacked the airport and the presidency in Niamey, triggering hours of gunfire and explosions. The defence ministry said armed forces were gradually retaking sites, but security sources reported mutineers still at the airport in the afternoon. The attack posed the latest threat to Abdourahamane Tiani, who seized power in a 2023 coup.
Why it matters: This event underscores the theme of political instability in the Sahel, where internal military unrest diverts resources from counter-jihadist efforts, potentially benefiting extremist groups.
supply chain risk · critical minerals
Americas
Iranian leaders acknowledged the economic toll of war with the US, with the supreme leader urging the government to address hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to American sanctions and blockade. Tehran signalled no retreat, vowing to withstand US pressure, pursue diplomacy, and maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. The US imposed sanctions on Egypt’s Banque Misr and an entity in Hong Kong linked to Iran’s Bank Melli, while annual inflation hit 66 per cent in July.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of economic statecraft, as sanctions and war compound Iran's economic pressures, affecting global energy markets and international trade.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Asharq Al-Awsat (English)