Value chains & chokepoints
Global wheat prices hit record highs as escalating tensions in the Black Sea pushed buyers to seek alternative origins to offset supply disruptions from Russia and Ukraine. Platts assessed the Milling Wheat Marker at $214/mt on Sept. 1, while Australian ASW1 rose $35/mt to $301/mt FOB Kwinana, and APW rose $40/mt to $312/mt. Canadian CWRS 13.5% FOB Vancouver was assessed at $331.34/mt, the highest since August 2023, with demand shifting to North America.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of supply-chain disruption and commodity price volatility, as Black Sea export constraints redirect global wheat demand to alternative origins.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
US Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that the Chinese are ready to cooperate in economically isolating Iran, amid rising economic and security pressures on Tehran. He stated that Washington has many options and tools to continue pressuring the Iranian regime, and that the US will not enter talks with Tehran unless it stops firing on ships. Vance also said that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to previous levels, with about 15 million barrels passing through yesterday.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of economic statecraft and the use of sanctions and pressure tools in US foreign policy.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Equinor has received its first LNG cargo under long-term supply agreements with Cheniere, loaded at the Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and bound for Europe. The 15-year agreements, signed in 2022 and 2023, will ultimately provide Equinor with about 3.5 million tons of LNG annually, enabling it to double its global LNG portfolio by 2030.
Why it matters: This delivery illustrates the theme of energy security through diversified long-term supply arrangements, as Equinor connects US supply to European and Asian markets.
supply chain risk
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation urged Congress to enact a ban on Chinese vehicles. The article also discusses Africa as a new front in the U.S.-China trade war, noting that conventional wisdom holds that a worsening trade war will hurt African countries caught in the middle.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of US-China trade tensions and their global repercussions, including impacts on third parties such as African nations.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The article argues that the U.S. homeland is more vulnerable to attack than ever before, citing threats from China, Russia, and North Korea in conventional, nuclear, space, and cyber domains. It notes that U.S. air and missile defenses are insufficient, and that domestic laws hinder coordination against drone attacks.
Why it matters: This analysis directly addresses the theme of homeland security, emphasizing the erosion of the United States' traditional geographic and military advantages.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
David Feith testified before the US House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, arguing that the United States needs a new counterintelligence approach for the AI age. He highlighted risks from Chinese drones, compromised equipment, and AI-enabled hacking, and identified five key ecosystems requiring greater attention. He also referenced the Ukraine Operation Spiderweb and drone incursions at US Air Force bases as examples of emerging threats.
Why it matters: This testimony addresses the theme of technology and national security, specifically the need to adapt counterintelligence to protect commercial AI and critical infrastructure from Chinese espionage.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing · supply chain risk
Gulf oil prices rose as Asian refineries, particularly in India and China, increased spot purchases of Middle Eastern crude amid competition for cargoes and supply disruption fears. Dubai crude futures approached $100 per barrel, and the UAE's Murban crude traded at a premium of over $30 per barrel above Dubai. Saudi exports fell to their lowest levels since early 2017, adding to supply pressures.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy markets and geopolitical risk, as supply disruptions and Asian demand drive oil price volatility.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Saudi Arabia has priced its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers at its widest discount since June 2020, at $2 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai benchmark for September. This comes as the UAE exits OPEC, Iraq seeks more capacity, Venezuela tilts toward Washington, and the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired. The discount suggests Riyadh is unwilling to surrender Asian customers while the immediate disruption at Hormuz obscures a looser underlying supply outlook.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of energy geopolitics, as internal divisions within OPEC and Saudi Arabia's defensive pricing signal a weakening of the cartel's ability to manage the market collectively.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Ugandan authorities announced the start of oil extraction by the end of 2026 during a ceremony at the Kingfisher site, operated by Chinese company CNOOC. Initial output is expected at 28,000 barrels per day, rising to 40,000 at full capacity. The oil has been named 'Pearl Sweet', and the project has faced criticism from environmental and civil society groups over displacement and environmental impacts.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of energy geopolitics, as the project involves Chinese and French companies and raises questions about resource extraction and its social and environmental costs.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Russia shipped over 10 million barrels of oil via the Northern Sea Route this year. China is preparing a second import terminal to handle LNG cargoes from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. PetroChina and Indian Oil Corp failed to secure very large crude carriers to lift Iraqi Basrah crude in late June.
Why it matters: This relates to energy security and supply diversification, as China seeks alternative supplies amid sanctions and shipping constraints.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
War risk claims have reached about $2 billion since the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East, with over 70 claims to date, according to maritime insurance experts. This is the second-biggest payout for marine underwriters in more than a decade, exceeded only by payouts on the container ship that brought down the bridge in Baltimore in 2024. War risk insurance premiums for the Strait of Hormuz have surged to between 40 and 60 times pre-crisis levels, adding roughly $7 or $8 to the price of a barrel of crude oil.
Why it matters: This development underscores the theme of maritime chokepoint disruption, as attacks on shipping and rising insurance costs reshape global oil trade routes and increase energy prices.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Shipping stocks have reached their highest levels in over a decade, with a basket of 35 U.S.- and European-listed shipping stocks climbing about 68% this year. The rally is driven by a months-long crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which has forced tankers onto longer routes and increased insurance costs. Some investors warn that a significant portion of the premium is 'fear pricing' that could deflate quickly if the situation normalizes.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of geopolitical risk and its impact on global trade and commodity supply chains.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
President Vladimir Putin visited the Zvezda shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen on September 2, where he inspected the Arc7 Class icebreaking LNG carrier Pyotr Stolypin. The tanker is one of five being built at the yard to service the Arctic LNG 2 project, which has been scaled down due to sanctions. The lead tanker, Aleksey Kosygin, is already OFAC-sanctioned and was last spotted offloading in China.
Why it matters: This visit underscores the theme of sanctions and their impact on Russian energy infrastructure, as the Arctic LNG 2 project has been curtailed by foreign partner withdrawal and equipment export halts.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Norway seized the Russian ship Professor Molchanov in the Arctic to enforce a $4.2 billion compensation claim won by Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz over Moscow's seizure of its assets after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. The vessel was seized off Svalbard after a standoff with the Norwegian Coast Guard, and the Svalbard governor's office confirmed the seizure, stating it would care for the crew and passengers. Russia's ambassador said Moscow would pursue the ship's release through legal channels, while Naftogaz has been coordinating enforcement measures across multiple jurisdictions.
Why it matters: This seizure illustrates the theme of sanctions and asset freezes as a mechanism for enforcing international arbitration awards against Russian state assets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kenya is negotiating with Dangote Industries to double the planned capacity of an LNG power plant at the proposed Lamu refinery, potentially increasing it to 1,000 MW. The deal could open a major new market for Tanzanian gas.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of energy infrastructure and regional gas trade.
green tech supply chain
A UN fact-finding report found that the Sudanese Armed Forces used foreign-supplied drones in attacks on civilian areas, including at least four waves of drone strikes on hospitals, markets, and other civilian locations. The report said there are reasonable grounds to believe these attacks may amount to a serious violation of international humanitarian law and a war crime. The UAE, which engaged with the fact-finding mission, reiterated that it is not involved in the civil war and has not provided arms to any party.
Why it matters: This report highlights the theme of conflict and state fragility, showing how foreign-supplied weapons are used in attacks on civilians, deepening the humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Kenyan President William Ruto said the government had directed Tata Chemicals to halt operations in Kenya, citing insufficient value delivered. Two new companies will take over the operations, with expectations to build large-scale processing facilities locally. The directive follows an earlier suspension request from Kenya's mining ministry citing unpaid royalties and non-compliance.
Why it matters: This relates to resource nationalism and foreign investment terms in critical minerals supply chains.
supply chain risk
A UN-backed investigation reported that foreign fighters and support networks are intensifying the conflict in Sudan, strengthening the military capabilities of the warring parties and worsening violence against civilians. The probe documented the recruitment and deployment of up to 2,000 ex-military Colombian contractors who operated drones and advanced weapons alongside the RSF, as well as fighters from South Sudan, Chad, and Ethiopia. It also found reasonable grounds to believe that the army and RSF attacks may amount to war crimes.
Why it matters: This report highlights the theme of external intervention in regional conflicts, showing how foreign support exacerbates violence and civilian harm.
geostrategy military basing · supply chain risk
The International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan stated that the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces committed serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law during their drone operations, with some practices amounting to war crimes. The mission noted that the expansion and diversity of drone capabilities changed the geographical scope of hostilities and their impact on civilians. It called for expanding the arms embargo to all of Sudan and for states to enforce the existing embargo on Darfur and track drone and weapons transfers.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of conflict and civilian protection, highlighting the evolving nature of warfare and the international response to atrocities.
sanctions export controls · geostrategy military basing
Dozens of people died in southern Nigeria after inhaling toxic fumes while attempting to steal fuel from a pipeline in the oil-rich Niger Delta, according to a local NGO. The Centre for Youth and Environment Advocacy confirmed at least 37 deaths in the Okrika area of Rivers State, where the victims, known as oil thieves, had connected a hose to a pipeline carrying crude oil from Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals to export vessels. Many remain missing, and some bodies were seen floating in the river but not yet recovered. The Rivers State police confirmed the incident but gave no official death toll.
Why it matters: This incident highlights the persistent issue of oil theft and its human and environmental costs, a recurring theme in the briefing on energy security and governance in resource-rich regions.
supply chain risk
Americas
Six months into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict has settled into a mutual blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with neither side able to achieve a clear victory. The United States can sustain the blockade at relatively low cost, while Iran's oil exports and hard currency are largely cut off, weakening Tehran over time. Washington aims to avoid Iranian escalation and maintain the blockade indefinitely to pressure Iran into negotiations.
Why it matters: This analysis addresses the theme of geopolitical conflict and economic warfare, specifically the strategic calculus of maintaining a blockade to erode an adversary's position without escalating to full-scale war.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US Vice President JD Vance said he would not categorize the conflict with Iran as a war, citing the absence of active shooting. He noted that major combat operations lasted six weeks after the war started on February 28, and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are nearly back to pre-war levels. Vance also said the United States would not reopen talks with Iran until it ends attacks on commercial shipping.
Why it matters: This statement reflects the administration's effort to manage the political fallout of a prolonged conflict, a key concern in the briefing's theme of geopolitical risk and energy markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: The Straits Times
US President Donald Trump imposed up to 100% tariffs on drones, targeting Chinese-made models over national security concerns. China's DJI holds more than 70% of the global market, and US law enforcement uses its devices for tasks like tracking wildfires and finding missing persons. Regulators had effectively barred the sale of new models in December over similar concerns.
Why it matters: This tariff reflects the ongoing theme of US-China economic decoupling in strategic technology sectors.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk