Today's items show a global realignment of energy and technology supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis and US-China chip competition reshaping alliances. In Asia-Pacific, Malaysia's Huawei chip consideration and Japan's expanded defence ties signal a shift away from US dominance, while in Europe, the Yemen Coast Guard's interception of a sanctioned tanker and Russia's drone campaign highlight ongoing chokepoint vulnerabilities. The Americas face trade retaliation from Canada and potential oil price spikes, and Sub-Saharan Africa's critical mineral export restrictions and Dangote refinery listing reflect a push for local value capture amid global demand.
Value chains & chokepoints
Malaysia is considering using Huawei chips for its sovereign AI efforts, which would be the first known instance of a foreign government choosing Chinese accelerators over American ones. Washington has warned that using Chinese chips could violate export restrictions, but Huawei's steep discounts offer cheaper compute amid a global memory shortage that could persist through 2030.
Why it matters: This development touches on the theme of technology competition and export controls, as it illustrates how US restrictions on China's access to advanced chips are being challenged by other countries' adoption of Chinese alternatives.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
HUMAIN, a state-backed AI company under Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, aims to become a global AI superpower by leveraging cheap energy, vast land, and sovereign wealth. CEO Tareq Amin plans to expand with offices in the US, France, and the UK, reduce reliance on the sovereign wealth fund, and position the company as a neutral marketplace for open models. The company has secured a $3 billion commitment from Blackstone and is building towards 3 gigawatts of data center capacity.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of global AI competition and the strategic positioning of sovereign wealth in the race for AI dominance.
great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Mexican Foreign Affairs Secretary Roberto Velasco met Wang Yi and will open a new consulate during his visit to China. The visit is part of ongoing diplomatic engagement between Mexico and China.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of diplomatic engagement in the China-Global South relationship.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow has not ruled out a trilateral meeting of the presidents of Russia, the U.S. and China, but insisted on clarifying the agenda and expected outcomes before preparations. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov floated the possibility of such a meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, noting that its organisation is the prerogative of the summit's hosts. The Kremlin also plans bilateral meetings for Putin with Xi Jinping and possibly Trump.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of great-power diplomacy, as Moscow seeks to manage its relations with Washington and Beijing amid shifting geopolitical alignments.
great power rivalry
TotalEnergies announced it will sell a 9.1% stake in the Papua LNG project to its partners, retaining a 20% share. Santos acquired an additional 3.3% for $189 million, raising its total to 21%. ExxonMobil will operate the project, and the partners' shares are now ExxonMobil 34.1%, Kumul Petroleum and MRDC 22.5%, Santos 21.0%, TotalEnergies 20%, and ENEOS Xplora 2.4%.
Why it matters: This transaction affects global LNG supply dynamics and investment decisions in the energy sector.
supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
China has deployed on average two Coast Guard cutters per month east of Taiwan since June, after Japan and the Philippines announced plans to define their overlapping maritime border. The patrols covered 27,100 square nautical miles, more than twice the size of Taiwan, and ships stayed 30 nautical miles from the island's eastern coast. The operations included questioning foreign commercial ships and inspecting 198 passing vessels.
Why it matters: This escalation in the Taiwan Strait and Pacific coast patrols directly affects maritime security and regional stability, key themes in the geoeconomics briefing.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said China could exploit scaled-back U.S.-South Korean military exercises to reassert itself in the Indo-Pacific. He noted that Washington assured Manila its commitments remain unchanged, with no indication the changes affect the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Teodoro also said the Philippines is broadening security ties with other partners and strengthening legislation against Chinese influence operations.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of great-power competition and alliance credibility in the Indo-Pacific.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said the nuclear reactor under construction in Syria during Bashar Assad's rule was configured to produce fissile material for possible use in nuclear weapons. Inspectors confirmed the cooling infrastructure is consistent with a nuclear reactor and found around 73 tonnes of natural uranium metal at a previously undeclared site. The material is now under IAEA safeguards, and its future removal or retention is for the Syrian government to decide.
Why it matters: This concerns nuclear proliferation and the verification of former weapons programs, a key theme in the briefing.
great power rivalry
Since 2023, 14 African countries have introduced export restrictions on unprocessed critical minerals, requiring local beneficiation. Western governments and development banks are promoting this model, but it pushes African countries into debt, allows wealth to flow out through tax avoidance, and imposes policy changes that undermine environmental and human rights. The promises of prosperity are based on faulty assumptions, including infinite demand for critical minerals and the ability to fund social services through mining income.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of global financial architecture and its impact on development, highlighting how debt and tax systems undermine public financing for development in Africa.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Japan is strengthening partnerships across the Indo-Pacific and beyond to bolster its ability to withstand a prolonged armed conflict, with the risk of a conflict over Taiwan shaping its defence planning. Tokyo is deepening cooperation with Australia, including defence planning, advanced weapons development, and warship construction, while also connecting regional military ties with defence-industrial and technological partnerships in North America and Europe. The United States remains Japan's only treaty ally, and Tokyo is looking to other countries to complement that relationship.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of strategic competition, as Japan's expanding defence network is aimed at complicating Beijing's calculus regarding Taiwan.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The Yemen Coast Guard, operating for the internationally recognized government, stopped a product tanker after it delivered cargo at the Houthi-controlled port of Ras Isa. The tanker, identified as Nereida, had been under U.S. OFAC sanctions since February 2025 and was reported to be transiting without AIS transmissions. After entering the Gulf of Aden, the tanker initially failed to stop and guards aboard fired at Coast Guard vessels, but it eventually complied and was escorted to anchorage off Aden.
Why it matters: This incident underscores the ongoing conflict and maritime security challenges in the Red Sea region, relevant to the theme of regional geopolitics and sanctions enforcement.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Zelenskiy said on September 6 that the war will continue, after US envoys left without a deal. Russia shut airports from Cheboksary to Perm overnight as Ukrainian drones flew deeper inland, but no regional governor confirmed a single industrial site damaged. The Russian defence ministry said air defences destroyed 306 drones between 20:00 on September 6 and 08:00 on September 7.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of 'war economy' as the campaign now denies Russian airspace and costs money even without hitting targets.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
The Dangote mega-refinery will be listed on the Lagos stock exchange, with the Nigerian regulator approving the listing on September 4 and the listing expected on September 14. Aliko Dangote aims to raise $1.6 billion by selling over 4 billion shares at 525 nairas each, valuing the refinery at about $49 billion. The funds will finance a near-doubling of the plant's capacity from its current 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, which would make it the world's largest refinery.
Why it matters: This listing tests whether African capital markets can finance large industrial projects, a key theme in the briefing on African economic development and infrastructure financing.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has exposed African economies' vulnerability to energy shocks, with fuel prices surging and supplies disrupted. African governments are urged to build resilient energy systems by improving efficiency, diversifying sources, and pricing volatility into investments, rather than treating disruptions as emergencies.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of energy security and economic resilience, highlighting the need for African policymakers to integrate volatility into national planning.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The Sudan Coalition called on the UN Human Rights Council to publicly name countries and entities supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces in the civil war and to renew the mandate of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan. The coalition criticized the mission's methodology and the early publication of its report on external support, urging it to address all states and entities providing support without selectivity. The UN fact-finding mission had warned that foreign arms and technology are strengthening both sides and enabling attacks on civilians.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of external intervention in civil conflicts, as the coalition demands transparency on foreign support to the SAF and the renewal of the UN investigation mandate.
geostrategy military basing · supply chain risk
At a national workshop in Yamoussoukro on September 6, Ivorian authorities announced ten priority actions to combat illegal gold mining, including intelligence measures, creation of special security squads, and draft laws to increase penalties. Interior Minister Diomandé Vagondo stated the goal of eradicating illegal gold mining within six months. The National Security Council noted the phenomenon is progressing despite the dismantling of over 8,500 clandestine sites in the past five years.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of state capacity and governance, as the government's response to illegal gold mining involves security and legislative measures.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
A mutiny that nearly toppled General Abdourahamane Tiani has revealed deep fractures within the Nigerien army, with arrests multiplying in Niamey. The authorities describe it as a 'mood movement' fueled by foreign backers, but young officers and special forces soldiers from Tillabéri feel abandoned by their hierarchy. The mutiny marked the first time Nigerien army members attacked each other and targeted the presidency and national television.
Why it matters: This event underscores the theme of political stability in the Sahel, as internal military dissent threatens the junta's hold on power.
geostrategy military basing
On 18 August 2026, a landslide at the Zamboï mine, on the border between Cameroon and the Central African Republic, killed dozens of people. The town, which has gold deposits, lacks basic infrastructure, and its approximately 20,000 residents live in isolation. The road to Zamboï is in poor condition, and there is no public mobile phone or internet service.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of resource wealth failing to translate into local development, a key concern in the political economy of fragile states.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure
Americas
The Panama Canal may further reduce daily ship transits due to drought from El Nino, according to its new administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta. The canal has already cut the maximum daily transits from 36 to 32 by mid-September, and further reductions to around 29 are possible in February or March. The restrictions come as canal usage has risen because shippers seek an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked.
Why it matters: This development affects global trade and energy shipping routes, a key theme in the briefing on geopolitical disruptions and their economic consequences.
chokepoint maritime · water · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bing News: "Panama Canal" transit, South China Morning Post
Goldman Sachs and Rystad Energy see potential for Brent crude to reach $120 per barrel if the U.S.-Iran conflict persists. Brent futures traded around $97 on Monday, up $10 from early last month. Rystad estimates tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 4-5 million barrels per day from an average of 8 million barrels per day.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of energy security and supply disruptions, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil flows.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Canada is poised to impose tariffs of 15 to 50 percent on hundreds of US products, including increasing the import tax on many US steel items to 50 percent from 25 percent and applying tariffs to consumer items such as motorcycles, cosmetics, and cheese. The measure is a calculated risk by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who a year ago removed many counter-tariffs implemented by his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. US officials have declined to specify how or when Trump may respond with fresh measures.
Why it matters: This escalation in trade retaliation directly affects the theme of trade policy and economic statecraft, as it risks a wider trade war between the US and Canada.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said oil may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase. The bank recommended bets on natural gas and diesel to capture gains, citing larger supply shocks in those markets. Brent last traded near $97, and industrial fuel diesel has more than doubled this year.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of energy-market risk and geopolitical supply disruptions.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
President Donald Trump said on Sept 7 that Bombardier, a Canada-based airplane maker, would no longer be allowed to sell in the United States unless it started manufacturing in the country. Trump's post on Truth Social came amid a trade dispute between Washington and Ottawa, with Canada set to introduce counter tariffs on Sept 8. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on enforcement, and US aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia doubted that business jet customers would cancel orders.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of trade policy and tariffs, as Trump's threat targets a major Canadian manufacturer amid a broader tariff war.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry