Value chains & chokepoints
President Donald Trump signed a bill imposing new sanctions on Russia and locking in punitive economic measures against Iran for five years. The bill, named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, allows tariffs of up to 100 per cent on major importers of Russian energy and targets Russia's shadow fleet. Its Iran provision extends the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, which was set to expire this year.
Why it matters: This matters for the sanctions theme because it demonstrates the US using economic measures to pressure both Russia and Iran.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Middle East Eye
On September 16, the House passed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which now awaits presidential approval and would allow tariffs on top purchasers of Russian oil. India, the second largest buyer of Russian oil, responded with a statement that dropped the phrase 'national interest' and focused on trade and economic interests. Preliminary data show Indian imports of Russian crude fell about 30 percent from August amid the tariff threat.
Why it matters: This tests India's energy security as it balances Russian oil imports against the threat of United States tariffs.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sept 18 to discuss Seoul’s role in Middle East security and delayed South Korean investments in the United States. Cho expressed Seoul’s willingness to contribute to restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Rubio stressed swift execution of the investment commitments.
Why it matters: This matters for the geoeconomics theme because the delayed US$350 billion investment package ties alliance diplomacy to commercial viability and tariff concessions.
chokepoint maritime · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
The article argues that the next phase of U.S.-China competition will likely center on the Eurasian landmass rather than the Indo-Pacific, as China builds overland energy corridors to reduce its vulnerability to maritime disruption. It cites Chinese scholar Zhang Jie, who linked China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca to its freedom of action on Taiwan, and notes that recent Hormuz disruptions have underscored the urgency of this effort. China has since built pipelines such as the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, and in the second quarter of 2026 it reduced seaborne crude imports by 32 percent while drawing down strategic reserves only modestly.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security because China's growing overland energy resilience could embolden Beijing to take greater risks over Taiwan.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Hudson Institute
Since June 6, China has conducted special maritime operations east of Taiwan, inspecting 198 passing vessels and deploying research vessels suspected of military reconnaissance. Chinese state media described the patrols as entering a new phase toward a more systematic, institutionalized, and long-term framework. The operations may serve as testing grounds for a potential quarantine of Taiwan.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of coercion at sea, as the operations indicate a more intrusive form of coercion taking shape.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Ajit Manocha, President and CEO of SEMI, said the global semiconductor industry is the third-most profitable major industrial sector. Speaking at Semicon India 2026, he said India has become a more interesting destination for semiconductor stakeholders since the India Semiconductor Mission was launched, as firms seek to de-risk supply chains. He also noted double-digit growth in traditional sectors such as industrial, automotive, and IoT, with AI as a tailwind.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of supply chain de-risking, as India positions itself as an alternative hub for semiconductor production amid global efforts to reduce vulnerabilities.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Houthi forces seized Mokha, the Hanish Islands, and Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb by September 11. A pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was attacked and shut down on September 10. VLCC spot rates for transiting Hormuz crossed $1 million per day.
Why it matters: This development directly affects the maritime chokepoints theme, as Houthi control of Perim Island gives them effective control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
chokepoint maritime · chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
During the seventh month of the Iran war, new attacks damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and Houthi forces advanced near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, pushing crude oil to $109 per barrel. Iran attacked 10 tankers, the United States destroyed five Iranian tankers, and Iran targeted U.S. military assets in Jordan and Kuwait. Repairs to damaged pumping stations could take up to six weeks, while Saudi crude production fell to 6.2 million barrels per day and Qatar shipped only 18 LNG cargoes in six months.
Why it matters: This matters for energy market resilience, as the damage to Saudi infrastructure and shipping constraints threaten global crude supply and price stability.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refining customers they will receive no crude next month under term contracts after an attack on the kingdom's East-West pipeline. The company has offered spot cargoes to Asian buyers via the Persian Gulf, while European buyers face higher prices and the need to find replacements.
Why it matters: This disruption to Saudi crude deliveries highlights the vulnerability of European energy security to Middle East infrastructure attacks.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Plans for a permanent US military base in Poland are placing European security before a more sensitive equation. Poland views the US presence as a security guarantee and a deterrent message, while Moscow warns of military consequences from US forces and missiles near its borders, particularly shorter missile flight times to the Russian capital.
Why it matters: The dispute over the base tests the limits of deterrence on NATO's eastern flank, a core issue in European security.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
The DRC is the world's second-largest copper producer and the largest source of cobalt, with mining output growing by 10.1% in 2025 and helping real GDP expand by an estimated 5.5%. Infrastructure is becoming the main constraint, as unreliable electricity and poor roads and railways raise costs. The mining sector faces a power deficit of around 1 GW, and Chinese investment dominates mining and processing capacity.
Why it matters: This illustrates the infrastructure bottlenecks shaping competition over critical mineral supply chains.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Dead fish were found on Monday 14 September in the Lubumbashi River. Local residents suspect pollution from mining activities and blame the Société de traitement du terril de Lubumbashi (STL), a germanium producer. The company denies any discharge and says it complies with environmental standards; no independent analysis has been published.
Why it matters: This bears on the critical minerals theme, showing how environmental disputes can affect the reputational standing of strategic mineral producers in the DRC.
critical minerals · water
Africa has vast solar resources but slow solar deployment, with development now accelerating beyond the 20 GW installed by end-2025. In Madagascar, a series of hybrid solar projects has been developed.
Why it matters: This illustrates how the energy transition in Africa is shaped by financing constraints and the need to displace diesel generation.
green tech supply chain
Food prices have risen sharply in Sudan as the pound depreciates against foreign currencies, eroding purchasing power. A kilo of sugar reached 10,000 pounds, veal 44,000 pounds and lamb 70,000 pounds, while some customers now buy only small quantities. The pound fell from about 570 to 2,550 against the dollar by end-December 2023 and later exceeded 7,000, and Khartoum authorities opened fixed and mobile sale points in the seven localities to sell goods at reduced prices.
Why it matters: This illustrates how the war economy and the collapse of the pound reshape household consumption and market activity in Sudan.
supply chain risk
Americas
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned BitBank, an Iranian bitcoin exchange used by Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority to process payments for the IRGC's Strait of Hormuz transit-fee scheme. It also sanctioned Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company, the developer of BitBank's software, and three executives of Zanjani's digital finance empire. According to OFAC, BitBank moved hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to the IRGC at Zanjani's instruction.
Why it matters: This action illustrates the theme of sanctions evasion through cryptocurrency and maritime front companies.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: gCaptain
Expectations for the September 24 Trump-Xi summit are low, with continuity expected in trade and geopolitics. The trade truce from Busan is likely to be extended, while no breakthroughs are expected on Russia, Iran, Taiwan, or environmental issues. The main possible area of cooperation is bilateral safeguards on artificial intelligence.
Why it matters: This matters for the US-China relations theme because it identifies AI safeguards as the sole area where the two rivals might make limited progress.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
President Donald Trump signed a law imposing broad sanctions on Russian officials and key sectors of the Russian economy, aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. The law targets Russia's financial resources used to fund the war, including banks, energy and defense sectors, and shadow fleet ships. It also grants Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on the five largest importers of Russian oil or gas.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of sanctions, showing how the US uses economic restrictions to shape Russia's war calculus.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry