Trade and energy security converge: Asia-Pacific's lithium expansion and US-China RISC-V work sit alongside G20 divisions over tariffs and forced-labour supply chains. In Europe, Eurasia & MENA, IEA/G-7 reserve releases, Ukraine's planned refinery strikes and US-Iran escalation near the Strait of Hormuz meet Iran's preparations for a major round of fighting. Sub-Saharan Africa shows Sudan's war rerouting arms via Malawi and Niger's uranium terms, while the Americas feature Alaska LNG. The common thread is chokepoints—supply chains, straits, reserves—where tariff measures, military deployments and reserve releases pull against cross-border cooperation.
Value chains & chokepoints
A "handful" of Group of 20 trade ministers rejected US calls to curb excess industrial capacity and "non-market" policies, the US Trade Representative's office said, a day after a trade meeting in Milwaukee. Only two countries, Mexico and Argentina, signed on to a US-led statement calling for more work and cooperation to eliminate goods produced with forced labor from supply chains. The US, this year's G20 chair, has imposed tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on goods from 59 countries and the European Union over allegations of inadequate enforcement of forced labor bans, and is conducting a second "Section 301" tariff investigation into 16 trading partners showing signs of excess industrial capacity.
Why it matters: The rejection by most G20 members, alongside the US tariff measures and the Section 301 probe, makes trade and industrial policy the central axis of this round of G20 ministerial meetings.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The United States, this year's G20 chair, issued a statement a day after a trade meeting in Milwaukee that drew support from only Mexico and Argentina. The statement called for more work and cooperation to eliminate goods produced with forced labour from supply chains. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs of 10 per cent or 12.5 per cent on goods from 59 countries and the European Union over allegations of inadequate enforcement of forced labour bans, and USTR is conducting a second "Section 301" tariff investigation into 16 trading partners showing signs of excess industrial capacity.
Why it matters: It shows how far trade and industrial policy has become a source of division among G20 members, with tariff measures and investigations pursued by the chairing state against a background of near-universal non-endorsement.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US intellectual property provider MIPS, acquired by chipmaker GlobalFoundries last year, is collaborating with Chinese firms at an unprecedented level, according to a senior executive. Chief technology officer Yankin Tanurhan said at a media briefing in Shanghai in September that MIPS was driving RISC-V standardisation very closely with China, as part of initiatives under RISC-V International involving US, European and Chinese entities and academia. RISC-V chipmakers are expanding beyond automotive, industrial and Internet of Things applications into physical AI and data centres.
Why it matters: It indicates that US-China tech rivalry in semiconductors is accompanied by continued cross-border work on open chip standards.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Asia-Pacific
Reuters visited the aircraft carrier USS George Washington in September, three days after the US military blew up five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for Iran targeting a US Navy warship. The carrier is operating near the Strait of Hormuz on a mission with no defined end date, having been deployed from Japan at the end of August to relieve another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln. The war began in February with joint strikes on Iranian targets by the US and Israel.
Why it matters: The open-ended carrier deployment near the Strait of Hormuz places the story within the briefing's energy security theme, since the strait is a route for global oil shipments.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor
The Russian oil and gas sector is reorganising itself under sustained geopolitical pressure rather than collapsing, through coordinated adjustments across oil, gas, finance and information. A new US law authorises tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas, designed to remain in force for five years, with the president empowered to grant exemptions on national security grounds. India imports roughly 45% of its oil needs from Russia, and the analyst cited expects China and India to demand larger discounts rather than stop buying.
Why it matters: The shift from supply-side sanctions to demand-side tariffs on buyers reconfigures energy security for Asian importers and Gulf producers, since each moving part of the system transmits shocks to the others.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime
China has announced an expansion of about 70 per cent in the resource base of a major lithium deposit in the southwestern province of Sichuan. State news agency Xinhua reported that the Jiada Lithium Mine registered about 1.05 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, bringing its total resources to 2.53 million tonnes. Developer Dazhong Mining said in a filing that the additional resources passed review and registration by the Ministry of Natural Resources, comprising 33.52 million tonnes of ore containing about 423,800 tonnes of lithium oxide at an average grade of 1.26 per cent.
Why it matters: The registration enlarges China's domestic resource base for a metal used in electric-vehicle batteries and energy storage, bearing on the briefing's themes of critical minerals and supply chains.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The International Energy Agency said on Oct 3 that member countries had so far released 325 million barrels of oil and oil-derivative products from strategic reserves, out of 400 million barrels pledged in March. The update came a day after G-7 countries, coordinating with the IEA, agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil. The G-7 did not say whether the 100 million barrels included the outstanding 75 million barrels from the March IEA commitment.
Why it matters: The drawdown bears on energy security, as IEA and G-7 members release strategic reserves to ease supply concerns arising from the US-Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Taipei Times
The New York Times reported that the Trump administration's talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine have expanded to include a multibillion-dollar oil deal involving Lukoil oil fields, refineries and gas stations. The deal is contingent on approval from the US government and the Kremlin and would benefit Middle Eastern business executives with ties to US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The group pursuing it includes US investor Todd Boehly, two Middle Eastern groups that have done business with Kushner or Witkoff's family, and an arm of the US government, and Putin raised the deal at a September 5 Kremlin meeting with Witkoff and Kushner.
Why it matters: It bears on the theme of energy security, because negotiations over ending the war in Ukraine are being conducted alongside the proposed transfer of Russian oil assets.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Also reported by: The Straits Times
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will increase attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to a Russian "new doctrine" of airstrikes on a broader range of civilian targets, but will not target civilians. He said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained documents showing Vladimir Putin issued the doctrine ahead of this winter. Zelensky also said a Ukrainian counteroffensive code-named "Vivaldi" had recaptured around 140 sq km of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
Why it matters: The stated intention to strike Russian refineries in return for Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy assets makes energy security a central axis of the war's winter phase.
great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
Also reported by: The Moscow Times
Pakistani Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar said the Strategic Political and Defense Committee of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye will hold an emergency meeting in Riyadh next week to discuss Houthi attacks on the Kingdom. Dar said the committee would determine the next steps, and that more than six countries had expressed interest in joining the alliance. Pakistan's military said its senior commanders condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, expressed solidarity with the Kingdom and reaffirmed their commitment to the security of Islam's holy sites.
Why it matters: The emergency session tests whether the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement's collective-defence clause produces coordinated action, placing the pact within the briefing's regional security theme.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Iman Ahmed has published her first book, titled "Abdallah Superstar", which is set in Djibouti in the 1990s and describes a musical, nocturnal city. Her father, a sound engineer, took part in the emergence of a musical current and collaborated with groups including Dinkara, in which Abdallah Lee, known as "Abdallah superstar", sang. Iman Ahmed is the guest on RFI's Afrique programme, answering questions from Guillaume Thibault.
Why it matters: The interview contributes to the briefing's coverage of culture and society by documenting the musical history of Djibouti through a family account.
supply chain risk
Mohammed VI named Fatima-Ezzahra El Mansouri, mayor of Marrakech, as head of the Moroccan government, the first woman to hold the post, six days after the PAM won 97 seats in the legislative elections. The foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger met in New York on 21 September to harmonise their positions before the 81st UN General Assembly, and held a side event there on 25 September. Niger has relaunched uranium investment, with the Madaouela project reassigned to Australia's Atomic Eagle and the Dasa project backed by 414 million dollars in financing, while arbitration with the French company Orano over Imouraren and the nationalised Somaïr continues.
Why it matters: The uranium file shows how energy security and resource nationalism now structure Niger's dealings with foreign mining investors.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
The Tigrayan militia Forces de paix du Tigré (TPF), allied with the Ethiopian federal government, said on X that it had taken full control of Alula Aba Nega airport, about ten kilometres from the centre of Mekele. The airport had been taken on 23 September by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) at the start of an offensive by a new opposition alliance. The TPF said it was liberating the city, after retaking several localities in southern Tigray, including Alamata, earlier in the week.
Why it matters: The claim bears on the briefing's conflict theme, since control of the airport and the expected capture of the regional capital would indicate the extent of the federal army's advance on the Tigray front.
chokepoint infrastructure · geostrategy military basing
Paul Valentino Phiri, a former chief of the Malawian army, was arrested and questioned on Thursday 1 October by Malawi's Anti-Corruption Bureau on five charges and released on bail of 10 million kwacha. He is accused of using his position to facilitate the transit through Lilongwe of an arms shipment presented as destined for the Malawian army but in fact delivered to "rebel forces in Sudan". According to the Anti-Corruption Bureau, the cargo was flown in from Kenya, hidden in a warehouse in the capital and then transferred to Chad before reaching Sudan.
Why it matters: The case illustrates how the war in Sudan is reorganising arms-trafficking routes on the continent, the briefing's conflict and security theme.
geostrategy military basing
Americas
US President Donald Trump said he did not "jump the gun" in announcing a South Korean investment in Alaska LNG, a project that has been planned for decades but still lacks binding commitments. Trump had unveiled plans for South Korea to invest $200 billion in US projects, while Seoul suggested that a $54 billion pipeline for the Alaska LNG project was not yet set in stone. Trump also said the US trade deal with South Korea includes $8.4 billion for a project to push out crude from an aging oilfield, a claim an official from Seoul's industry ministry was reported to have been surprised by.
Why it matters: The episode shows how energy security announcements made at the political level can precede the binding commercial commitments that would give them effect.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
A source in Tehran said Iran is preparing for a "major round of fighting" with the US, as diplomatic efforts falter and the US administration considers its next steps. Talks held in New York last month produced no breakthrough, and a third US aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is en route to Central Command's area of operations. Iran has also proposed transferring its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent to a third party, and conveyed to Washington through Qatar a seven-day plan to resolve the stand-off over the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: The stand-off bears directly on the briefing's energy security theme, because the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb are the waterways through which Gulf oil and freight move.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran will have no oil shipments at sea this week and will earn no revenue from them, describing what he called an "unprecedented" US economic isolation. He said Washington moved from direct military operations to imposing a blockade and then to economic isolation, and that oil supplies will improve and become more abundant, lowering prices. President Donald Trump said Iran "is not in a good state", expected the war to end soon and oil prices to return to pre-conflict levels, while G7 leaders agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from their reserves over the next four months.
Why it matters: The statements present sanctions and economic statecraft, rather than direct military operations, as the instrument now determining the conflict's effect on energy markets.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
The United States is sending about 9,000 troops on a naval flotilla to the Middle East, a build-up that could put three aircraft carriers in the region by late October or November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego on September 27 with Carrier Strike Group 9, which carries more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, while the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington are already in the region. In an interview with Time published on October 1, President Donald Trump said it was "possible" he would escalate bombing of Iran after the November 3 midterms, and the US Treasury sanctioned Iran's rail and automotive sectors and their foreign suppliers on October 1.
Why it matters: The deployment and the sanctions bear on the briefing's military-escalation theme, since they extend US force posture and economic pressure against Iran while the war that began on February 28 remains deadlocked.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime