Value chains & chokepoints
The United States is backing the Ampasindava rare earths project in Madagascar and will help Kenya develop a critical minerals processing industry, according to the reports. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is preparing a one-stop agency for major mining investments as part of reforms linked to its minerals partnership with the U.S. Chinese media warned that emerging mineral deals between the United States and the DRC pose direct challenges to China's mineral domination in Africa.
Why it matters: The reported deals place African critical minerals within the wider competition between the United States and China over supply chains and mineral dominance on the continent.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
The UK is considering aligning with the EU on tariffs for electric vehicles made in China, while EV imports from China into the UK have continued to face a standard 10% import duty. The EU introduced tariffs on China-made BEVs in 2024; such vehicles accounted for 17% of EV sales in the bloc in 2023 and 22% over the first eight months of 2026. In the UK, China-made EVs accounted for 19% of EV sales in 2023, rising to 33% so far in 2026.
Why it matters: The move bears on the trade-policy theme, since aligning with the EU would end the UK's 10% duty-only treatment of China-made EVs at a point when they take 33% of UK EV sales.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Türkiye's crude oil exports rebounded by +31.4% y-o-y to 24.1 mln t in Jan-Sep 2026, according to shipbroker Banchero Costa. Of the 24.1 mln tonnes loaded in Türkiye, 18.7 mln tonnes were Azeri BTC grade, while Kirkuk grade from Northern Iraq accounted for 4.9 mln tonnes, against nil in the same period of 2025. The EU27 was the top destination, taking 19.1 mln t, or 79.3% of Turkish crude oil volumes, up +26.0% y-o-y.
Why it matters: The rebound bears on energy security, as Ceyhan terminal flows of Azeri and Iraqi crude to the EU27 rise while Arabian Gulf loadings fall.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
China's independent teapot refineries have closed deals for October and November for up to 20 million barrels of oil, replacing sanctioned Iranian crude with supplies from Iraq and Qatar, according to Reuters, citing three major oil-trading houses. The US returned to blockading Iran in mid-July, with the blockade covering Iran's entire coastline and all its ports and oil terminals, and CENTCOM says as many as 270 ships have been redirected by the US Navy. For several years, roughly 90 percent of Iranian oil exports have gone to China, about 1.4 million barrels a day in 2025, a flow that had slowed to about a third of that by September.
Why it matters: The substitution of Iraqi and Qatari barrels for Iranian crude shows how sanctions and maritime enforcement are reshaping energy trade flows in the Gulf.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
China's share of battery manufacturing ranges from roughly 70% to 95% across the value chain and is not expected to change materially in the short term, according to EUPD Research analyst Ali Arfa. The Chinese export tax rebate for battery products is set to fall from 9% to 6% before being eliminated in January 2027, which Arfa expects to bring forward shipments to Europe. EUPD Research estimates European residential energy storage installations at approximately 15 GWh to 17 GWh in 2026, and Arfa expects oversupply concerns in the residential and C&I segments in the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027, while utility-scale prices remain comparatively stable.
Why it matters: The segment-level divergence in storage pricing shows how a change in Chinese trade policy transmits through supply chains into European distribution channels, with inventory risk concentrated in residential and C&I sales rather than utility-scale projects.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The European Parliament voted by a large majority for a significantly tougher position on China, despite long-standing lobbying by Beijing. The report labels China a "decisive enabler" of Russia, calls for a continuous European naval presence and joint exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, and describes Beijing's industrial policy as an existential threat to the EU. The vote followed a joint paper and letter from France and Germany to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demanding a new trade instrument that would allow the Commission to cut off access to the EU market when third countries cause severe distortions.
Why it matters: The measures described mark a further hardening of EU-China relations, with trade and security instruments now directed at Beijing.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · geostrategy military basing
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Black Sea wheat loadings fell to 1.6m tonnes in September, 77.8% below the 7.3m tonnes recorded a year earlier and the lowest September level since 2017, per AXSMarine data published by shipbroker Ursa. Attacks in Romania's and Bulgaria's exclusive economic zones sank the Royad Mammadov and the Alfa Watan and set the wheat-carrying Able on fire; Ambrey assessed it highly likely Russian forces carried out the attacks, while Bulgarian authorities have not established responsibility. Ukraine exported 2.4m tonnes of agricultural products in September, 46% of its potential volume, and agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi said alternative routes could handle no more than 45% to 50% of potential exports without the main Black Sea ports.
Why it matters: The strikes move the maritime security theme beyond the immediate approaches to Russian and Ukrainian ports, putting alternative grain corridors under threat and constraining both countries' export capacity.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
European Union gas storage was 72.4% full on 3 October 2026, the lowest seasonal level recorded since 2011. A report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimates that the EU may have to cut gas demand by 7% year on year compared with last winter, and that covering the shortfall with additional imports could cost 3 billion euros. The report adds that the full ban on Russian LNG imports enters into force at the start of 2027.
Why it matters: The combination of record-low seasonal storage and a recommended demand cut rather than added storage capacity places energy security at the centre of EU winter planning.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
From a pool of 102 applications, the European Commission selected 46 projects to receive accelerated permitting procedures and improved access to financing, spanning 16 member states and covering extraction, processing and recycling. Germany obtained eight projects, more than any other member state, four of which are in the recycling sector. According to the Commission, the projects could fully cover the extraction targets for lithium and nickel and the lithium processing target.
Why it matters: The selection bears directly on the critical raw materials theme, since the Critical Raw Materials Act's 2030 benchmarks for domestic extraction, processing and recycling, and its limit on single-third-country supply, frame European supply-chain policy.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Togo invited citizens to contribute texts, recordings and translations to help AI models understand the country's 50 local languages. The World Bank's biannual Economic Update argues that most African economies should adopt and adapt AI rather than build frontier models from scratch. Africa holds 18% of the world's population but only 0.6% of global data-center capacity, and the African Development Bank estimates inclusive AI adoption could add up to $1 trillion to Africa's GDP by 2035.
Why it matters: The item sits within the technology theme, framing Africa's AI gap as a question of infrastructure, energy and adoption rather than of building frontier models.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
The Trump administration has failed for a second time to persuade the UN Security Council to extend the Darfur arms embargo across Sudan. The outcome exposes divisions over how to stop the foreign weapons supplies fuelling the country's civil war.
Why it matters: It illustrates how disagreements among Security Council members constrain the use of sanctions as a conflict-management tool.
geostrategy military basing · chokepoint maritime
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company's revenue from petroleum products fell by 77.58% in 2025 to ₦2.17trn, according to data compiled by The Africa Report. The report states this is the company's lowest level in at least four years, and links the decline to a Dangote-led price war.
Why it matters: The fall in NNPC's petroleum revenue bears directly on the briefing's fiscal strain theme, since lower state oil income constrains public finances.
supply chain risk
Forces belonging to Erik Prince's company Vectus Global were ambushed in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in mid-September, with at least 20 people killed and wounded, according to sources close to the Congolese government and his company. Two sources working with Congo's government said the attack in South Kivu on September 17 left about 20 dead and wounded, among them at least seven Congolese and a former member of New Zealand's Special Forces. Former UFC fighter Tim Kennedy survived with three gunshot wounds to the leg and is being treated at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, three sources said.
Why it matters: The ambush bears on the briefing's conflict theme, placing a US-linked private security contractor inside a mineral-rich eastern Congo war in which the United Nations and Western powers say Rwanda backs the M23 rebels.
geostrategy military basing
Americas
President Donald Trump said Russia agreed to release millions of tons of diesel into US and global markets after a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department issued General License 135 authorizing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7 2027. Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons immediately, another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons shortly thereafter, with an additional 3 million tons possible depending on the condition of Russian refineries. The announcement came as diesel prices have climbed to near-record levels, driven by disruptions to global oil supplies from the war with Iran and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.
Why it matters: The authorization marks a change in US sanctions policy on Russian energy and links two sources of energy security disruption, Russia's war in Ukraine and the conflict involving Iran, though delivery timing, destinations and market effects remain unestablished.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
On August 21, 2026, U.S. Coast Guard law enforcement, a USCG Cyber Protection Team, a vessel inspector and an FBI Cyber Action Team boarded a 333-meter crude oil tanker in the Atlantic that was later identified through Iranian and open-source reporting as the VL Prosperity, three weeks out from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal and headed for Galveston with roughly 2.3 million barrels of crude. A second 227-meter liquefied petroleum gas tanker, the Kohaku, was boarded three days later in the Gulf of Mexico after a suspected related attack; both vessels were Texas-bound and had earlier transited the Strait of Gibraltar. USCG and FBI found malicious cyber activity and performed incident response, noting no physical damage, environment impacts or crew injuries at the time, while claims that the attacker reached propulsion, navigation and cargo systems came only from Iranian state media.
Why it matters: The incident illustrates the maritime security theme, since United States cybersecurity rules already require measures for vessels and ports.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The text states that the global energy map is being redrawn while the Middle East crisis is still unfolding, and warns that emerging narratives could harden into an investment hierarchy before the physical energy system changes. It argues that for the Middle East the crisis is an opportunity to move beyond energy exports toward a broader role in mineral and industrial supply chains, AI, and data centers, using affordable energy to support energy-intensive industry. For the United States, it says a more industrialized Middle East could strengthen energy and supply-chain security by adding mineral processing and other strategic capacity, with a broader minerals partnership linking US technology, capital, and demand to the region’s mineral and affordable energy sources.
Why it matters: The piece frames the Middle East crisis as a test of energy security, arguing that investment and supply-chain decisions should add capacity across regions rather than replace one source with another.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Reuters reported that the Trump administration has begun direct talks with Myanmar's military-installed government, the first such engagement since the 2021 coup. The report, citing seven current and former officials, said Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Michael Vance joined talks with Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on September 15-16, nominally aimed at securing the release of detained American businessman Adam Castillo. It also described June meetings in Tokyo that included the Treasury Department, the Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon, and said officials discussed online scam operations and access to Myanmar's heavy rare earth deposits.
Why it matters: The engagement indicates that access to critical minerals, particularly heavy rare earths, is now part of US policy toward Myanmar as Washington seeks to reduce its reliance on China.
critical minerals · great power rivalry