Energy security is the day's common thread, and it runs through sanctions relief as much as through chokepoints. Washington's diesel arrangement with Moscow eases restrictions on Russian fuel while Ukrainian strikes have cut Russian diesel output by about 30 per cent, and Trump's announced energy truce drew no confirmation from Kyiv or Moscow. In Europe, Russian strikes hit Ukrainian power plants even as the EU and China halved Chinese hybrid vehicle shipments. In Asia-Pacific, Qatar extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Pakistan, while India's solar cell imports from China fell more than 98 per cent. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern African coal exports reached a ten-year high, feeding off Hormuz disruption.
Value chains & chokepoints
A diesel supply deal between Presidents Trump and Putin overturns a Russian export ban introduced on July 8, at a time when Russia faces domestic diesel shortages. Ukrainian long-range drone and cruise missile strikes have hit the six primary diesel production sites, and diesel production is estimated to have fallen by nearly 30 per cent. Reduced volumes reaching export ports face further disruption, with Tuapse having gone months without loading a cargo and little flowing through Novorossiysk.
Why it matters: The targeting of refineries and export terminals makes energy security a central constraint on Russia's diesel exports.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Compared with China and the US, Europe's upstream and downstream footprint in the global battery supply chain is small. No major critical mineral used in the sector is mined or processed primarily on the continent, and cathode, anode or cell development and installation are not centred there. A package of policies under the EU's Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) aims to boost Europe's manufacturing presence in the industry, which the text states is required if Europe is to meet more of its own demand for electric vehicles and battery energy stationary storage, both anticipated to grow significantly through to 2040.
Why it matters: The IAA package sits within the briefing's industrial policy theme, since Europe's capacity to serve its own EV and storage demand depends on building mineral processing and cell manufacturing that the text says is currently absent from the continent.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Chinese electric-vehicle makers are developing their own batteries in order to cut costs and restore profit margins, a trend referred to as “de-CATLization”. Government support for the battery industry resulted in overcapacity, overproduction and price wars, and the move away from CATL's batteries has contributed to a 40 percent fall in the company's share price since May. The text notes that CATL's profits exceed those of China's top ten EV makers combined.
Why it matters: The episode illustrates how industrial policy can generate the overcapacity and price wars that then reshape the industry it originally created.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Finance officials from around the world will gather in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, with a widening Middle East war, the biggest-ever energy supply shock and rising interest rates posing risks to already-sluggish global economic growth. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 18,000 people were registered to attend, 4,000 more than the last off-site meetings in Morocco in October 2023, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be absent and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh will attend. World Bank President Ajay Banga said global growth had held up better than feared when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, but pressures were building again, and the IMF says public debt is at the highest level since World War Two and will exceed 100% of GDP before 2030.
Why it matters: The meetings put the briefing's debt theme at the centre, as public debt at its highest since World War Two and $400 billion in external payments due in 2026 constrain emerging-market growth.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Clarksons Research reported that crude tanker markets reached fresh all-time highs, with VLCCs averaging $805,000/day globally and freight rates now $20-45/bbl. Its weekly recap recorded further attacks on vessels, with at least 10 ships of 1.0m GT damaged in the Middle East in October so far, and said about 10m bpd of Middle Eastern crude appears to have crossed Hormuz in recent days, roughly 80% of it shuttled across via ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Oman. It estimated that a cumulative ~2 billion bbl of crude have not transited Hormuz, with mitigating factors such as higher Atlantic supply and Yanbu exports limiting the net loss to about 1 billion bbl.
Why it matters: The record tanker earnings and the continued reliance on ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman place the energy security theme at the centre of the disruption, since Middle Eastern crude and LPG flows remain below normal levels.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The programme asks whether France is still a player or has become a playing field in the three-way contest among Washington, Beijing and Moscow, which compete without waging direct war. It cites Trump received in Beijing in May, Xi and Putin displaying their entente at the Bichkek summit in late August, a possible three-way summit in Shenzhen in November, no remaining treaty limiting American and Russian nuclear arsenals, and Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb almost closed. The guests are vice-admiral Pascal Ausseur, director general of FMES and former maritime prefect of the Channel and North Sea, Céline Bayou of INALCO, and Valérie Niquet of the Fondation pour la recherche stratégique; the programme was recorded in Toulon alongside the Mediterranean Strategic Meetings organised by FMES.
Why it matters: The discussion places France's room for manoeuvre inside great-power competition, the theme the briefing tracks through the alignment of Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime
Asia-Pacific
CENTCOM forces disabled the Panama-flagged cargo vessel Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on October 10, striking its stern with a precision munition after the crew ignored warnings and attempted to run the naval blockade against Iran, with the ship's propulsion disabled and the crew unharmed. The command resumed the blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14, and reports that four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships turned around during three months of enforcement. Ocean Molica is a 70,000 dwt bulker built in 1996, owned and operated out of China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and had previously departed an Iranian port.
Why it matters: The use of military force against a Chinese-owned vessel for blockade-running places maritime chokepoint enforcement and sanctions compliance at the centre of the briefing's trade-and-security theme.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
China's exports of photovoltaic modules fell to 15.26 GW in August from 30.82 GW a year earlier, and India's imports from China dropped to 0.07 GW from 2.68 GW in August 2025. Imports of solar cells from China fell to about 0.04 GW in August, down more than 98 per cent from 2.56 GW in April, after the second Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM List-II) took effect on June 1. The ninth revision of List-II brought listed domestic cell capacity to about 39.4 GW, against 217 GW of module capacity under List-I.
Why it matters: It shows how industrial policy and trade flows interact: domestic content rules can cut imports of cells and modules while dependence on China persists in upstream segments such as polysilicon, ingots and wafers.
green tech supply chain · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Kurt Campbell, a veteran US diplomat and strategist, served as White House coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs from 2021 to 2024 and as deputy secretary of state from 2024 to 2025, having earlier been assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2009 to 2013. He was a key architect of the Obama administration's pivot to Asia and helped develop the Quad and the "small yard, high fence" approach to technology competition, and is now chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group. In the interview he says containing China is impossible but urges Washington to shore up its regional partnerships.
Why it matters: The interview bears on the theme of US-China strategic competition, setting out a former official's view that containment is unachievable and that Washington's Indo-Pacific partnerships are the instrument of deterrence.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · geostrategy military basing
The EU and China reached a deal on Friday to reduce China's shipments of hybrid vehicles to Europe by half, cutting Chinese imports by millions of cars over four years according to the EU's trade commissioner, who called it "only a first step." The agreement leaves untouched the vast majority of Brussels' $1 billion-a-day trade deficit with Beijing. Chinese brands accounted for one in four European hybrid sales in August.
Why it matters: The deal shows EU-China trade negotiations producing a narrow concession on one product category while the structural drivers of the bilateral trade deficit remain unaddressed.
green tech supply chain · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Qatar has extended force majeure notices on LNG deliveries to Pakistan until Nov. 5, after QatarEnergy halted production and declared force majeure in March following attacks on its facilities during the United States-Iran conflict. Pakistan is seeking alternative cargoes and preparing to curtail supplies to some sectors, with the Ministry of Petroleum asking state-owned Pakistan LNG Limited to explore supplies from the US, the Middle East and Azerbaijan and a government threshold of $27 per MMBtu for spot cargoes. Last winter the country imported 36 LNG cargoes, of which 35 came from Qatar.
Why it matters: The suspension of Qatari deliveries and the search for replacement cargoes place energy security at the centre of the briefing, since the passage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and winter load management determine Pakistan's gas supply.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Kutch Copper Ltd, part of Adani Enterprises Ltd, plans to integrate 115 megawatts of renewable energy into its copper refinery operations in Mundra, Gujarat, according to its maiden sustainability report. The company operates a copper smelter with a capacity of 5,00,000 tonnes per annum and plans to expand it to 1 million tonnes. It states that it operates on nearly 100 per cent desalinated water, follows a zero-liquid-discharge approach and treats 99.8 per cent of sulphur emissions.
Why it matters: The expansion and decarbonisation plans illustrate how energy transition demand for copper is shaping Indian smelting capacity and corporate environmental commitments.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said the United States' response to Iran's seven conditions in a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was "insufficient". Iran presented the proposal during the UN General Assembly, under which the waterway could be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days if the conditions were met, and the US replied via Qatari intermediaries. Rezaei said Washington had accepted some of the conditions while others remain unclear, and that Iran is "no longer in the process of responding to the Americans".
Why it matters: The exchange bears on energy security, since the Strait of Hormuz was the conduit for a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bing News: "Strait of Hormuz", Middle East Eye, The National (UAE)
Russian strikes hit multiple Ukrainian power plants on Oct 11, including a plant in Kyiv and the CHP-5 plant in Kharkiv, according to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. The strikes followed US President Donald Trump's announcement that morning of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which Zelensky said surprised him and which Russia has yet to confirm. The announcement came two days after Trump announced a temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian diesel.
Why it matters: The episode ties the war's course to energy security, as strikes on power plants and US sanctions relief on Russian diesel shape both fuel markets and the cohesion of Ukraine's allies.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: South China Morning Post, The Kyiv Independent
Two more tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, while US forces disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. According to UK Maritime Trade Operations, both outbound tankers were hit on their port side by unidentified projectiles, with crews reported safe and no environmental impact reported, and the agency did not attribute responsibility for the attacks. US Central Command said an American fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged cargo vessel Ocean Molica, also known as Arika Sun, after its crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to violate the US naval blockade against Iran.
Why it matters: The incidents bear directly on the briefing's maritime security theme, since attacks on commercial shipping inside and beyond the Strait of Hormuz, alongside US disabling strikes, raise the risk and cost of trade through a key chokepoint.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: gCaptain
The Trump administration threatened to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to end its long-range attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, according to the Financial Times. European officials said Washington was pressuring European capitals and Kyiv, and that the message included threats to halt intelligence sharing and to suspend the mechanism listing priority requirements for Ukraine, used to purchase American weapons. Trump then said on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed a truce in the energy sector, while Zelensky's office said it was not aware of such an agreement and it was not immediately clear whether Russia had accepted it.
Why it matters: The reported linkage of arms, intelligence and the energy truce puts energy security at the centre of the bargaining over continued Western support for Ukraine.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Russian strikes hit multiple Ukrainian power plants on Oct 11, after US President Donald Trump said both sides had agreed to stop hitting each other's energy infrastructure; Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said a drone hit a Kyiv power plant and that there had been a strike on the CHP-5 plant in Kharkiv. A fresh Houthi strike hit Riyadh's international airport on Oct 11, a day after an attack claimed by the group killed at least a dozen people and forced the authorities to suspend operations there. Pakistan's president declared a state of emergency and suspended the provincial government of Imran Khan's party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit vote.
Why it matters: The reported strikes test the claimed energy ceasefire and bear on the briefing's energy security theme, while Houthi attacks on Saudi transit hubs raise risks to Gulf infrastructure.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Coal exports from Southern Africa have risen sharply in recent months, with South African and Mozambican shipments exceeding 60 million metric tonnes over the first eight months of the year, the highest level in ten years and a growth rate of 11%. Analysts attribute the increase to Indonesian export quotas and to the absence of LNG exports following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In Tanzania, a new coal terminal is under construction and the company Sichuan Hongda has signed a three-billion-dollar agreement for a new coal mining project.
Why it matters: The reorientation of coal trade towards Southern Africa shows how energy security disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are feeding fossil-fuel investment and export growth in the region.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on what he described as a truce in the energy sector, which he said takes effect immediately. Trump gave no further details on the agreement, and no immediate confirmation came from Kyiv or Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the US news site Axios that he knew nothing about Trump's announcement of a ceasefire in the energy sector, and said Kyiv would agree if the Russians agreed to a ceasefire in the energy sector.
Why it matters: The announcement bears on energy security, because the proposed truce concerns strikes on oil refineries and energy infrastructure and follows a US decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian fuel.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (Arabic)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Burkina Faso's government has banned exports of millet, maize and sorghum flours and their derivatives until further notice, and suspended special export authorisations for those products. The minister of commerce, Serge Poda, says the aim is to guarantee availability of the products in the country and make them more accessible to consumers, with sanctions for offenders. An emergency plan for the agricultural campaign provides for 750 boreholes at subsidised prices, after a campaign marked by unsatisfactory rainfall and pockets of drought.
Why it matters: The ban places food security at the centre of the briefing's trade-policy coverage, as a Sahelian government restricts exports to protect domestic supply.
supply chain risk · water
The World Meteorological Organization reports that 13 million people in Africa have been affected by climate extremes, while the United Nations puts the number facing food insecurity at more than 300 million of the continent's roughly 1.8 billion inhabitants. Floods in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo killed hundreds of people and damaged housing, roads and crops, while drought affects large parts of East and West Africa. Climate projections cited in the article point to above-normal rainfall in parts of Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Ethiopia and South Sudan in the last quarter of the year, and to below-normal rainfall and extended dry spells in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Madagascar.
Why it matters: The article ties climate extremes to the briefing's food security theme, showing how floods and drought cut crop and livestock output and are expected to drive higher assistance needs in 2027.
water
Americas
Trump announced over the weekend an agreement to release 1.8 million tonnes of diesel to the American and global marketplace, an arrangement energy experts believe is too small and too late to have any meaningful effect on cost of living in the United States. The side effect, the text states, is cash flowing into the Russian war machine. It adds that continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure now risk upsetting Trump directly, leaving Kyiv to choose between a successful military campaign and the chance at a closer relationship with the United States.
Why it matters: The arrangement shows how energy security and the domestic political incentives of Washington now shape the course of the war in Ukraine.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The New York Times reported on October 10 that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner put three incentives to Moscow in late September — access to frozen state assets, a sale of Lukoil's foreign business and freer Belarusian potash exports — in return for a limited ceasefire covering energy infrastructure or the sea. The package was pitched as an upfront inducement to accept a partial halt to the fighting before winter, and Ukrainian officials were surprised by how far the Americans had gone. Kyiv did not reject the proposals outright but demanded dollar-for-dollar releases from the frozen assets to fund Ukraine's defence and reconstruction and firm guarantees of faster military aid if Russian forces broke a truce, while Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said after an October 9 phone call between Trump and Putin that Moscow would continue hostilities until it achieved all stated goals.
Why it matters: The offer makes sanctions relief the currency of ceasefire diplomacy, tying the briefing's sanctions theme directly to the trajectory of the war.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Trump said Russia would supply the United States with up to 4.8 million tonnes of diesel, about 35.8 million barrels, in tranches beginning with more than 300,000 tonnes, following a telephone call with Putin. Russian diesel exports have averaged around 550,000 barrels per day since July, down from about 1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, and the IEA says Russian diesel output has fallen by about 30%. The US Treasury issued a temporary licence under which sanctions will not apply until April 2027 to deliveries of Russian diesel loaded onto tankers as of Friday.
Why it matters: The arrangement tests the sanctions theme directly, since Washington is easing restrictions on Russian fuel to address domestic diesel prices while Moscow gains an outlet for supplies its refineries still produce.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Republican US Senator Thom Tillis said on Sunday that President Donald Trump's diesel supply deal with Russia may be illegal and will put American lives at risk. Trump said on Friday that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, and his administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel that were designed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war on Ukraine. Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina who is retiring from the Senate at the end of his term in January, said there was a legitimate case for saying the president is not following the law.
Why it matters: The dispute turns on the use of sanctions relief as an instrument of energy supply policy, a central theme of this briefing.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Elon Musk backed Donald Trump's call for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, deepening a row over Russian diesel after Trump said it was time for Ukraine to get a new president over Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Zelenskiy responded that Trump has no power to remove him from office, while Ukraine's foreign minister said the government supported the president. The dispute has left Kyiv more isolated from Washington, which has threatened to cut satellite intelligence and is easing sanctions on Moscow, as Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.
Why it matters: The row illustrates the briefing's geoeconomics theme, as diesel supplies, sanctions relief and Starlink access are used as instruments of leverage in the Ukraine war.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
China has built an ecosystem dedicated to orbital data centers in just over a year, according to The Wire China. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said in an interview in late August that data centers could be placed in Earth's orbit to take advantage of the sun's energy and to help win the AI race. His comments came at a time when US public favourability towards data centers is rapidly dimming and demand for computing capacity is rising.
Why it matters: It places orbital data-center infrastructure within the AI and compute competition, as China builds an ecosystem for orbital data centers while a US official frames the same infrastructure as a means of winning the AI race.
great power rivalry
India is not inclined to extend special treatment or relax regulatory requirements for Elon Musk's Starlink, maintaining that American businesses must follow the same rules and security procedures as other companies in the country. The Communications Ministry rejected Musk's allegation that "oligarchs" were blocking Starlink, calling the suggestion of unfair or discriminatory treatment baseless and misconceived. Sources said India-US relations have "nose-dived" and that friction is spilling over into the bilateral trade agreement negotiations, with New Delhi seeing little prospect of progress on an interim deal before the US mid-term elections.
Why it matters: The dispute sits within the briefing's trade theme, since India's refusal of regulatory concessions to US firms is tied to stalled bilateral trade agreement talks and to US curbs on Indian IT companies, professionals and visa categories.
great power rivalry