Trump's quest for control of critical minerals and oil abroad: History predicts failure
Writing for the Peterson Institute, Monica de Bolle argues that Trump's efforts to control foreign oil and critical minerals through equity stakes and trade agreements rest on shaky legal foundations in the United States and target countries. She cites the 'obsolescing bargain' concept and historical cases such as Mexico in 1938, Iran in 1951, Peru in 1968-69, Chile in 1971, and Venezuela in 2007 to predict that such deals will be undone by successor governments.
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme because it suggests US equity stakes abroad are vulnerable to reversal by host governments.