Geostrategic Daily

Foreign Affairs · 23 September 2026

The Stalemate With Iran Is Not Sustainable

The war with Iran has expanded to critical energy infrastructure. The Houthis now control the Bab el Mandeb Strait, and a drone struck Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline, temporarily disabling it. Oil prices rose from the mid-$70s in August to $110 per barrel in September.

Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security because the expansion of attacks on energy infrastructure threatens global supply and could push oil prices to $150 or $200 a barrel, risking a recession.

chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry

Record

Source
Foreign Affairs (tier 1)
Published
23 September 2026
Link
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stalemate-iran-not-sustainable
Content depth
full
Regions
americas, europe-eurasia-mena
Subregions
gulf, levant, us
Actors
United States, Iran, Houthis
Edition
2026-09-24

Grounding

Verbatim spans from the source text that support the summary above.

the Bab el Mandeb Strait—a maritime chokepoint along the Red Sea route that is the main alternative to shipping oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz—is under the control of the Houthis
a drone launched by an Iranian-affiliated militia operating out of Iraq struck the East–West pipeline in Saudi Arabia
the price of oil jumped from the mid $70s in August to $110 per barrel in September