The Saudi economy can hold out through year’s end—even if oil exports drop to zero
Recent attacks on Saudi Arabia's East–West oil pipeline and a Houthi surge raise the possibility of further declines in Saudi oil exports. A stress test assuming zero oil exports for the remainder of 2026 estimates a loss of $75 billion in oil exports, but finds the Saudi economy resilient enough to withstand it. The global economy may feel the loss of supply more keenly than the kingdom.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security because the global economy may reach its pain threshold before Saudi Arabia reaches its financial one, increasing incentives to restore, reroute, replace, or conserve lost supply.