Geostrategic Daily

Lowy Institute — The Interpreter · 24 September 2026

China’s Gwadar gamble isn’t paying off

Local Baloch residents have been excluded from the port's economic benefits, and prolonged protests have repeatedly shut down Gwadar. The city lacks drinking water and electricity, while the fishing community has been displaced by Chinese trawlers and security zones. Under the 40-year lease, 91% of port revenues are supposed to go to Beijing, but the port generates little revenue and China is likely to downscale its operations.

Why it matters: This matters because it shows that Belt and Road projects can become strategic liabilities when local opposition and economic returns are misaligned.

chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · water · great power rivalry

Record

Source
Lowy Institute — The Interpreter (tier 1)
Published
24 September 2026
Link
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-s-gwadar-gamble-isn-t-paying-off
Content depth
full
Regions
asia-pacific, europe-eurasia-mena
Subregions
indian-ocean, caucasus-central-asia
Actors
China, Pakistan, IMF
Edition
2026-09-25

Grounding

Verbatim spans from the source text that support the summary above.

The local Baloch population has been excluded from the economic benefits of the port.
91% of the port’s revenues are supposed (Opens in new window) to go to Beijing
Beijing is highly likely to downscale its operational footprint