Sub-Saharan Africa’s off-grid solar market to grow 450% by 2035
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa's off-grid solar capacity will increase by 450% by 2035, describing off-grid solar as the region's primary electrification engine. The outlook models ten markets in depth, with growth in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo driven largely by commercial, industrial and mining loads displacing diesel, while Kenya's market moves from first-time access toward cost optimisation. Gwalani identifies financing as the biggest barrier to the forecast, citing the cost and availability of capital, currency depreciation and borrowing costs that can exceed 30%.
Why it matters: The forecast links the region's energy transition to the cost and availability of capital, making financing structures rather than subsidies the central variable in whether the projected capacity is built.