Lost in tabulation: Diverging US-China trade data point to tariff evasion
From January through July 2026, the US Census Bureau recorded $158.3 billion in merchandise imports from China including Hong Kong, while China reported $258.1 billion in merchandise exports to the United States. The $99.8 billion difference was equivalent to 63 percent of reported US imports from China, nearly five times its 2021–24 average. The text states that evasion of US tariffs appears to be an important contributor to the gap and that US bilateral import data for China have become less reliable.
Why it matters: This matters for the trade theme because the reported decline in US imports from China should not be treated as a clean measure of economic decoupling or tariff effectiveness.