Rebounding oil exports through Strait of Hormuz are vulnerable to stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks
Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, coming under attack over the past month while sailing through Hormuz, the Persian Gulf or off the coast of Oman, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. Crude shipments through Hormuz averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day for the week ended Saturday, about 23% below a prewar baseline of 13.5 million bpd, according to Kpler data, while Windward estimates flows at 9-10 million bpd against a prewar baseline of 14.5 million bpd. Shippers are moving crude at high cost in freight and insurance rates, with the cost of shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to China reaching $1 million per day for each tanker, and at least nine sailors have died since July, according to the International Maritime Organization.
Why it matters: The attacks bear on energy security, since crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below prewar levels and now depend on a US military commitment to protect tankers along a southern route.