The US needs its own grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea
The article argues that US patrols, joint statements and expressions of concern have imposed few costs on Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and drone activity in the South China Sea, and that Beijing is not being deterred. It proposes adapting the US military's F3EAD targeting cycle into F2RED, replacing the kinetic 'finish' step with calibrated non-kinetic responses such as jamming or downing Chinese drones, offensive cyber operations, partner coast guard enforcement against illegal fishing, and financial measures. It cites the 2022 Treasury sanctions on Chinese distant-water fishing companies, which added more than 150 vessels to the Specially Designated Nationals list, as a precedent that could be extended to illegal fishing and militia activity in the region.
Why it matters: The piece frames the South China Sea as a test of US–China strategic competition below the threshold of armed conflict, where the argument is that demonstrating resolve through lawful, partner-backed costs is more likely to produce de-escalation than passivity.