What the Hormuz crisis has cost fossil fuel importers — March to August 2026
Fossil fuel importers paid a gross extra cost of USD 330 billion for seaborne crude oil, oil products, and LNG in the six months following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, compared with pre-war futures market expectations. The US–Iran war caused the largest sustained oil price shock since the 1990 Gulf War, with Asian LNG prices averaging 75% above pre-war expectations, European LNG 60% above, diesel 59% above, and crude oil 35% above. The highest gross extra costs were faced by the EU (USD 78 bn), China (USD 35 bn), and India (USD 22 bn).
Why it matters: This quantifies the economic impact of a geopolitical conflict on global energy markets, a key theme in the briefing on energy security and trade.