Sahel Jihadist Rivalry Becomes a Regional War in 2026
The rivalry between al-Qaeda's JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province has grown into a regional war that now reaches western Niger and northwestern Nigeria, according to Africanews. Fighting between the two groups has intensified since September 2026 in the borderlands where Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger meet, with ISSP casualty claims not independently verified. JNIM remains the stronger group, with an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 fighters against about 2,000 for Islamic State, Africanews reports.
Why it matters: The conflict bears on energy security and counter-terrorism policy, as the text states that it threatens uranium and gold supply chains and the security of Gulf of Guinea states that host American investment.