Shipping: The El Niño Effect
Intermodal analyst Vasilis Fousekis said the Panama Canal Authority cut daily transits to 32 in September and eased restrictions after late-September rain, but Panama's meteorological institute expects the dry season to begin as early as the second half of November, and the Authority projects an average of 29.5 crossings a day over the coming fiscal year. He said El Niño drought in Southeast Asia reduces hydropower output and raises coal burn in India and Vietnam, while India and China are expected to import less thermal coal as they draw on high domestic stocks. In grains, he said irregular rainfall in central and northern Brazil risks soybean yields between November and January, and the United States is well placed to fill the gap but faces Panama Canal logistics constraints.
Why it matters: The report shows how El Niño reshapes trade flows and shipping logistics, with the Panama Canal the clearest dry-bulk channel likely to tighten into early 2027.