Value chains & chokepoints
Half of Europe’s seaborne diesel imports from other regions now come from the US, up from a quarter a year ago. Russian diesel exports have been largely absent since July, and drone strikes have taken out a large share of Russian refining capacity. India supplied roughly 60% of the diesel/gasoil transits through Bab-el-Mandeb in August, but its crude/condensate exports have fallen for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy security, as Europe’s diesel supply is increasingly dependent on a narrow set of unstable sources.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime
Anas Al-Hajji, an energy economics expert and consulting editor at Attaqa, said the Strait of Hormuz crisis could last for years, citing shipping company and government movements that reflect declining confidence in the speed of political solutions. He linked Iran's war in the Strait of Hormuz to the concept of a proxy war, questioning whether the current confrontation represents an indirect conflict between the United States and China. He noted that China's COSCO shipping company decided not to send its ships to the Gulf or through the Red Sea, rerouting them via the Cape of Good Hope, while Saudi Arabia and Japan took steps to re-insure and alter tanker routes.
Why it matters: This analysis touches on the theme of energy security and geopolitical competition, as it examines the potential for a prolonged conflict in the Strait of Hormuz affecting global energy supplies and the strategic responses of major powers.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The article argues that modern warfare is defined by large salvos of missiles and drones, making industrial capacity central to defense planning. It highlights that Russia is on track to launch 840 ballistic missiles at Ukraine this year, a 47 percent increase from 2025, and that Ukraine's interception rates for ballistic missiles have dropped from 24 percent to 10.2 percent due to declining stocks of interceptors. The article uses the expansion of production lines for IRIS-T and AMRAAM missiles as case studies, noting that Diehl Defence expanded its workforce and facilities, while RTX used digital manufacturing techniques, and calls for policy alignment to facilitate transatlantic industrial investment.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of defense industrial capacity, as it underscores the need to scale production to meet the demands of modern salvo warfare.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Asian refiners, including those in Japan, South Korea, and China, have increased purchases of Argentina's Medanito crude amid the Iran war disrupting Middle East supply. Japan's Eneos Holdings and Taiyo Oil bought the grade for the first time, while Hyundai Oilbank, PetroChina, and Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum were other buyers. Exports to Asia averaged a record 35,000 barrels a day this year, more than five times the 2025 average.
Why it matters: This diversification of crude supply sources addresses the theme of energy security, as refiners seek alternatives to Middle Eastern barrels during the Iran war.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Selon une analyse d'Ember, l'Afrique pourrait installer 17 GW de capacités solaires en 2026, soit 45 % de plus qu'en 2025, grâce à une nouvelle méthodologie incluant les données d'exportation chinoises. L'analyse estime que 12 GW ont été installés en 2025, contre 6,2 GW et 4,6 GW selon l'AIE et l'Irena, car près des trois quarts des nouvelles capacités entre 2023 et 2025 étaient dédiées au solaire décentralisé. En Sierra Leone, les nouvelles capacités de 2026 pourraient doubler la production nationale d'électricité, tandis qu'en Afrique du Sud et en Égypte, l'impact serait plus faible.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of energy transition and the reliability of statistical data in assessing renewable energy adoption in emerging markets.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore form a critical trio for the assembly, testing, and advanced packaging of semiconductors, each specializing in a specific part of the value chain. The Philippines leverages its English-speaking technical workforce, with electronics accounting for almost 60% of its goods exports, about three-quarters attributable to semiconductors. Malaysia commands a 13% share of the global assembly, testing, and packaging market, while Singapore positions itself as a high-value center with advanced packaging and chiplet integration.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of supply chain resilience, showing how Southeast Asia's back-end semiconductor strengths offer a low-risk diversification option for Western allies.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Oil supertankers are earning record rates for voyages from the Persian Gulf, with a Saudi Arabia-to-China route reaching $656,000 a day, over ten times the rate a year earlier. The surge is driven by Iranian attacks and Houthi assaults on Saudi tankers, which have reduced the number of ships willing to enter the region and increased journey times. Sinokor Group, the world's largest supertanker player, has profited by hiring out ships at elevated rates after buying dozens of vessels before the war.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of geopolitical risk and its impact on global shipping and energy markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Vietnam's government expressed opposition to 'illegal' reclamation and construction in the Paracel Islands after reports of new Chinese activities. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that all foreign activities in the Paracels are 'completely illegal and null and void' and demanded their immediate cessation. Vietnam claims sovereignty over the archipelago, which has been under Chinese control since 1974.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of territorial disputes in the South China Sea, highlighting ongoing tensions between Vietnam and China over island construction.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Japan's Updated FOIP, announced in May 2026, adds a focus on AI, data infrastructure, supply chains, and security cooperation. The article proposes three concrete cooperation areas: joint preservation of maritime routes, critical minerals supply chains, and energy mutual aid. It emphasizes a functional approach with varying membership by issue, avoiding exclusive blocs.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of regional resilience, as it outlines practical steps for Japan and ASEAN to collectively address vulnerabilities in sea lanes, energy, and supply chains.
green tech supply chain · chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Valterra Platinum, the world’s largest platinum group metals miner, expects China’s push into hydrogen-powered freight trucks to increase demand for platinum and sister metals. The company projects it could add 6 million ounces a year in demand, based on capturing a fifth of the global heavy-duty truck market for fuel cell vehicles. South Africa, which supplies over 80% of the world’s platinum, ties its export earnings and job creation to Beijing’s industrial policy.
Why it matters: This ties into the theme of energy transition and supply chains, as China's hydrogen strategy could reshape global demand for critical metals and affect South Africa's export economy.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of the year, oil supplies are likely to tighten and bunker fuel prices to rise. Global oil flows are down about 7% and LNG trade down about 4% in the first half of the year, while energy inventories are drawing down significantly. European gas inventories are lagging 19% compared to 2025 levels and 25% compared to the five-year average.
Why it matters: This directly affects the energy security theme, as prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would tighten oil and gas supplies, raise prices, and potentially lead to higher inflation and interest rates.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in over a month, with US forces striking Iranian launchers on Larak Island and Iran responding with missile and drone attacks. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed an unidentified tanker struck two naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, though the incident is unconfirmed. Several tankers have been hit in the area in recent days, and up to 400 ships with around 6,000 seafarers remain unable to leave the Gulf safely.
Why it matters: This escalation directly threatens the security of maritime trade routes, a core concern of the geoeconomics briefing's theme on supply-chain resilience.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
President Donald Trump said on Monday that sanctions against Iran were 'kicking in really strongly' and pledged to respond to Iran's attack on American forces in Jordan. The US and Iran traded fire for the first time in more than a month, with Jordan intercepting eight missiles. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that those engaging with Tehran risked being cut off from the dollar-based financial system.
Why it matters: This escalation underscores the theme of economic statecraft, as the US leverages sanctions and financial isolation to counter Iranian military actions.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged G20 finance ministers to join US efforts to cut off Iran's financial lifelines, unveiling a new sanctions campaign called 'Operation Economic Outcast' that broadens secondary sanctions. The EU expressed support for US economic pressure on Iran, while some countries noted risks to the global economy. The UAE halted trade and financial ties with Iran after missile attacks, and the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of economic statecraft, as the US leverages financial sanctions and G20 coordination to pressure Iran amid ongoing conflict.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
A European naval mission boarded the Russia-linked oil tanker MV SUN in the Mediterranean for flag verification, according to EU diplomat Kaja Kallas. This was the sixth suspected shadow fleet vessel boarded by EU operations in recent months. EU defense ministers plan to discuss actions against the shadow fleet at a meeting in Ireland.
Why it matters: This incident highlights the ongoing enforcement of Western sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet, a key theme in the briefing on sanctions and energy security.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
In early April, a convoy of 299 Iraqi fuel tankers crossed into Syria, marking the first legal Iraqi oil transit through Syria since 2003. By late July, over 2.1 million metric tons of Iraqi fuel had moved to the Syrian coast, and by August 2025, up to 327,000 trucks carrying over seven million tons of cargo crossed into Syria. The World Bank estimated Syria's reconstruction would cost $216 billion, nearly ten times its projected 2024 GDP.
Why it matters: This shift positions Syria as a transit hub amid regional turmoil, aligning with the theme of 'geoeconomic realignment' as countries seek alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Frank Garcia will visit Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya this week to strengthen bilateral relationships and advance economic and security partnerships. The US House of Representatives will vote on spending legislation that extends AGOA through 2028, and hold hearings on Houthi terrorism and critical minerals. Senior officials from African electric grid institutions are visiting the US, and France takes over the UN Security Council presidency.
Why it matters: This briefing covers US-Africa relations, trade policy, and regional security, themes central to the geoeconomics briefing.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The Central Bank of Madagascar announced the upcoming opening of gold collection points in four regions with high gold potential. The institution aims to increase its gold reserves and formalize a sector largely controlled by traffickers. The bank currently holds one tonne of gold and wants to strengthen the ariary's stability.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of commodity governance and illicit financial flows, as the central bank seeks to curb smuggling and formalize artisanal mining.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
The Congolese government is preparing a voluntary civilian disarmament operation from September 22 to December 22 in areas presented as strategic. The goal is to recover and destroy weapons illegally held by civilians, as part of the African Union's 'Silencing the Guns' initiative. To encourage voluntary surrender, the government offers total anonymity, judicial amnesty, and material compensation under the formula 'weapon for development object'.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of security and conflict, as the operation aims to reduce the proliferation of small arms in the DRC, though recovering existing weapons may not prevent new inflows.
geostrategy military basing
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, rising copper prices and restrictions on cobalt exports are leading major mining groups to shift toward copper, whose global demand far exceeds that of cobalt. In the first half of 2026, Glencore's copper production rose 15% to 397,000 tonnes, including 138,400 tonnes from its African assets, up 66%, while its cobalt output fell 46% to 10,200 tonnes.
Why it matters: This shift illustrates the theme of critical minerals supply chains, as market dynamics and policy constraints reshape production priorities in resource-rich countries.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Eskom reported a group profit after tax of R30.3bn ($1.8bn) for the financial year ended 31 March 2026, more than double the restated R14bn reported in FY2025. This marks the second straight year of profitability for the South African power utility.
Why it matters: This development bears on the theme of energy security and the financial sustainability of state-owned enterprises in emerging markets.
supply chain risk
Americas
The Panama Canal has temporarily relaxed parts of its booking system to make transit capacity more flexible amid worsening water conditions. From September 13, neopanamax customers can secure multiple reservations for the same date and obtain slots on consecutive days. The canal will offer 63 neopanamax reservation slots weekly, with minimum allocations for various vessel types, and unused capacity can be redistributed between sectors.
Why it matters: This adjustment reflects the theme of supply-chain resilience as the canal manages capacity constraints from drought, affecting global shipping routes and costs.
chokepoint maritime · water
Also reported by: Bing News: "Panama Canal" transit
Axios reported, citing US officials, that President Donald Trump and senior aides are considering a plan for limited strikes aimed at deterring Iran. The White House had leaned against approving strikes last week to avoid escalation, but Iranian ballistic missile attacks on US bases in Jordan on Sunday may push Trump to change his stance. The plan, developed by CENTCOM, has support from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth but awaits Trump's approval after the weekend exchange of fire.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of US-Iran military escalation and the risk of broader conflict in the Gulf.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
At this year's Jackson Hole symposium, US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a policy reset, stating that inflation remains too high and that the era of forward guidance is over. The article argues that the Fed's price environment is fundamentally shaped by the Gulf conflict and its effects on energy markets, citing 3.7 per cent PCE inflation and Brent crude at $105 a barrel. It also discusses the implications for Gulf economies, including the UAE's exit from Opec, the G20 agenda on cross-border payments and global imbalances, and the impact of the Fed's policy shift on Gulf sovereign wealth funds and capital allocators.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of global monetary policy and its transmission to regional economies, as it highlights how Gulf energy dynamics and financial strategies are now central to the global rate debate.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry