What if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen this year?
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of the year, oil supplies are likely to tighten and bunker fuel prices to rise. Global oil flows are down about 7% and LNG trade down about 4% in the first half of the year, while energy inventories are drawing down significantly. European gas inventories are lagging 19% compared to 2025 levels and 25% compared to the five-year average.
Why it matters: This directly affects the energy security theme, as prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would tighten oil and gas supplies, raise prices, and potentially lead to higher inflation and interest rates.