Today's items converge on energy security and supply-chain disruption across Asia-Pacific and the Americas. The U.S. naval blockade has cut Iran's Hormuz crude flows to China, while U.S. strikes on IRGC targets and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz drive record charter rates. In the Americas, a U.S.-Venezuela deal would give Washington control over 65 billion barrels, displacing Chinese and Russian interests, and LG Energy Solution's lithium contract localises North American sourcing. These moves reflect a broader reordering of energy and critical-mineral supply chains amid geopolitical rivalry.
Value chains & chokepoints
Korean shipyards are receiving a surge of Suezmax tanker inquiries as the U.S.-Iran conflict reroutes Middle East crude away from the Strait of Hormuz. Tracked flows through Hormuz fell to about 2 million barrels per day as of Aug. 18, down about 89 percent from 18 million before the war. Saudi shippers are using a northern Red Sea route from Yanbu to Egypt's Ain Sukhna terminal, where crude crosses Egypt via the Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir, and Suezmaxes fit within Suez Canal draft limits even fully loaded, making them more valuable.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy security and supply chain disruption, as the rerouting of crude due to the Hormuz shutdown drives demand for Suezmax tankers and affects shipbuilding markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
A US official said a new oil production agreement between the US and Venezuela is a geopolitical opportunity for Washington to secure access to oilfields largely under Chinese and Russian influence. The deal, to be signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, will see Chevron expand operations and give a US-backed venture control of 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. The agreement comes as the Iran war has disrupted global oil flows and raised energy prices.
Why it matters: This deal reflects the theme of energy security, as the US seeks reliable oil supplies amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Oil tanker charter rates have recently reached record levels and may rise further after US President Donald Trump threatened renewed strikes on Iran. Rates for shipping from the Gulf to China hit a record, with earnings for VLCCs on the Saudi-China route reaching $656,000 per day on August 28, 2026, more than ten times the level a year earlier. The cost of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has risen, with TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné citing costs up to $20 million per transit.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of geopolitical risk and energy markets, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz directly impact global oil shipping costs and supply chains.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
In late October 2025, Honda shut a Mexican plant and halved Canadian Civic production due to a parts shortage caused by China's ban on Nexperia semiconductor exports, a retaliation against U.S. and Dutch actions. The episode revealed the deep integration of North American supply chains and their exposure to Chinese coercion, yet the three governments are focused on internal disputes. The USMCA renegotiation should prioritize countering China's growing monopoly power rather than internal trade terms.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of supply-chain resilience, showing how Chinese export controls can disrupt integrated North American production and necessitate coordinated policy responses.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Energy Fuels is shifting its focus from uranium to rare earths, expecting most of its earnings to come from the rare earth value chain in about five years, with uranium contributing only 10-15%. The company is receiving up to $725 million in conditional U.S. government support to expand rare earth separation at its White Mesa mill and is acquiring Australian Strategic Materials and Vacuumschmelze to build an integrated mine-to-magnet business. The strategy depends on completing these deals and meeting federal loan conditions.
Why it matters: This shift underscores the critical minerals theme, as Energy Fuels positions itself within Washington's push to secure rare earth supply chains outside China.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · sanctions export controls
Asia-Pacific
For the first time on record, Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz due to a U.S. naval blockade. The blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Iran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Iran loaded about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August, down from roughly 740,000 bpd in July and about 2 million bpd in March.
Why it matters: This development directly affects the theme of energy security and supply chains, as the blockade disrupts a critical oil transit chokepoint and alters global crude flows.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Drones in the Russia-Ukraine war account for an estimated 4% of global germanium demand, adding pressure to a small critical minerals market dominated by China, according to BMO Capital Markets. Governments and military alliances have pledged about $150 billion for drone and counter-drone capabilities since 2025. China produced 98% of the world’s primary refined gallium, 77% of refined germanium and 68% of mined rare earths in 2023, according to a U.S. Geological Survey study.
Why it matters: This highlights the strategic competition over critical minerals, a key theme in the briefing, as Western governments seek to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains for advanced technologies.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Reports that the US Navy is seeking alternative ports for the Fifth Fleet have highlighted Diego Garcia's strategic value, with recent sightings of military aircraft and ships on the island. The lease-back deal between the UK and Mauritius is suspended due to failed UK legislation and lack of US consent. Chagossians have re-established a settlement on Île du Coin, with their right to remain endorsed by the British Indian Ocean Territory Supreme Court.
Why it matters: This relates to geopolitical competition and the strategic positioning of military assets in the Indian Ocean region.
geostrategy military basing
The defence ministry's '2026 China Military Power Report' states that recent PLA exercises are increasingly focused on the 'joint blockade and control' of Taiwan's external air and sea routes. The exercises aim to strengthen the PLA's ability to target Taiwan and conduct anti-access and area-denial operations to counter potential foreign intervention.
Why it matters: This report highlights the theme of cross-strait military escalation, as Beijing continues to prepare for potential blockade operations against Taiwan.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Two supertankers carrying Saudi oil were struck by unknown projectiles within minutes of each other while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz late on Monday. The tankers each loaded 2 million barrels of Saudi crude at the Juaymah terminal last week. All crew aboard were reported safe.
Why it matters: This incident underscores the ongoing disruption to global energy trade routes, a key theme in the briefing on geopolitical risks to supply chains.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Russia's federal budget collected 4.6 trillion rubles ($55.2 billion) in oil and gas taxes in the first seven months of the year, only 127.6 billion rubles ($1.52 billion) above original projections. Energy revenues were down 20% year-on-year and 35% compared to 2022. The shortfall is attributed to faster market stabilization, a stronger ruble, and Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy markets and fiscal stability, showing that geopolitical shocks do not automatically translate into sustained budget windfalls for Russia.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
France announced that the UN Security Council will vote in September on renewing the mandate of a panel monitoring sanctions on Iran, with the vote expected on Sept 17. Russia and China oppose the sanctions regime and may veto the renewal, arguing the Security Council no longer has a mandate to consider the Iranian nuclear issue. The dispute stems from a 2025 'snapback' mechanism triggered by Britain, France, and Germany, which restored sanctions after concluding Iran was not complying with the 2015 nuclear deal.
Why it matters: This vote tests the Security Council's authority on nuclear non-proliferation amid great-power rivalry, a core theme of the briefing.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor
IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued a statement on August 26 condemning a series of attacks over the past week against civilian merchant ships in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. He called for an end to all unwarranted attacks on international shipping arising from geopolitical conflicts, emphasizing that such acts endanger seafarers, threaten navigation safety, and disrupt global supply chains. He urged all parties to respect international law and protect seafarers.
Why it matters: This statement underscores the theme of maritime security and geopolitical risk, highlighting ongoing threats to commercial shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Ukraine launched one of its largest attacks of the war, targeting areas across Russia, including the Ust-Luga oil terminal. The regional governor reported damage and a fire in the port area, which was later extinguished. Russia retaliated with widespread attacks, including on Odesa and Kyiv regions, and Ukraine said it intercepted or suppressed 199 aerial targets.
Why it matters: This escalation reflects the ongoing theme of energy infrastructure targeting in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, affecting global energy markets and export routes.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
In the first half of 2026, major mining operators in the DRC saw copper production rise while cobalt output fell. Glencore produced 397,000 tonnes of copper, up 15%, with 138,400 tonnes from its African assets, up 66%. Its cobalt output fell 46% to 10,200 tonnes.
Why it matters: This shift underscores the changing dynamics in the critical minerals market, a key theme in the briefing.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Ghana has banned the export of unrefined artisanal gold as of September 1, 2026, requiring licensed buyers to process the mineral through one of four authorized local refineries. The artisanal gold sector earned nearly $11 billion in 2025 and produced 104 tonnes, surpassing large-scale mines for the first time. However, no Ghanaian refinery holds LBMA certification, and researcher Bright Simons argues that local refining lacks economic logic due to low margins and past failures.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of commodity value chains and resource nationalism in Africa.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Stakeholders at a national workshop in Lusaka urged Zambia and Southern African countries to accelerate green and inclusive industrialisation by ensuring natural resource exploitation results in productive industries, quality jobs, and increased local economic value. The workshop reviewed regional studies on green industrial policy, industrial upgrading, green energy transition, and the private sector's role in the circular economy. Participants called for turning findings into practical policy options, with proposals including a regional 'Lusaka Compact on Green Industrialisation'.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of green industrialisation and regional value chains, highlighting the need for African economies to move beyond exporting unprocessed resources and capture more value locally.
green tech supply chain
Sasol reported a sharp rebound in underlying profitability for the financial year ended 30 June 2026. The gains were driven by operational improvements at its domestic coal-to-liquids complex and higher refining margins, which cushioned structural headwinds.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of energy and commodity markets, showing how refining margins and operational gains can offset structural challenges.
supply chain risk
Lusaka Airport is now served by dedicated freighter capacity from Emirates and TAAG Angola Airlines. Emirates added a weekly B777F service, while TAAG introduced a weekly B737-800F operation. These moves suggest carriers are seeing new potential in the Zambian air cargo market.
Why it matters: This shift in air cargo capacity signals a change in trade routes, a key theme in the briefing on global supply chains.
supply chain risk
Americas
US forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran at midday Eastern time on September 1, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). The strikes follow recent attempted IRGC attacks on commercial shipping and US service members, and come after a breakdown of the June memorandum of understanding. Iranian state media reported explosions in several southern cities and ports, but the reports could not be independently verified.
Why it matters: This escalation underscores the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, and its impact on global energy security and regional stability.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Also reported by: Mint (Livemint)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Oman's Sultan Haitham met in Jeddah to discuss regional developments and security amid the US-Iran war. The meeting follows recent strikes between Iran and the US, including attacks on the Iranian island of Larak and US bases in Jordan. Oil prices rose after reports of two tankers being hit near the Strait of Hormuz, including the Saudi-owned Sidr.
Why it matters: This meeting underscores the theme of Gulf security and the economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global energy supplies.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
North American Blue Energy Partners will take over several Venezuelan oilfields formerly run by Chinese and Russian firms under a new production agreement. NABEP, now controlled by Alejandro Betancourt, was granted 14 new projects and will control 17 projects to develop oil for U.S. markets. The arrangement gives the United States direct influence over Venezuela's oil, displacing foreign interests and securing access to an estimated 64 billion barrels.
Why it matters: This shift in control of Venezuelan oil assets directly affects the global energy supply chain and the balance of influence among major powers, a core concern of the geoeconomics briefing.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The US government announced a deal with Venezuela that would grant a 100-year concession for 17 major oil fields with an estimated 65 billion barrels of reserves, giving the US control over more than 7 percent of global proven reserves. The agreement, reportedly headed by Alejandro Betancourt, would give the US government 55 percent of output, including an equity stake and purchase rights at cost, to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The article raises questions about the deal's viability, including legal challenges under Venezuela's constitution and the reluctance of oil companies to invest due to political uncertainty and infrastructure decay.
Why it matters: This deal touches on the theme of energy security and geopolitics, as it involves strategic control of oil reserves and the refilling of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid global market tensions.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Brazil's presidential election on October 4 is increasingly tied to the US geopolitical struggle to keep Latin America within its zone of influence. The US has imposed tariffs on Brazilian products, and Brazil refused visas to two US State Department officials, leading to retaliation. The election pits Flávio Bolsonaro, who favors open US investment, against Lula, who prioritizes Chinese interests and reciprocal benefits.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of great-power competition, as the US seeks to limit Chinese influence in Latin America through economic and political pressure on Brazil.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
LG Energy Solution has signed a binding take-or-pay contract with Smackover Lithium for 80,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate over ten years, with deliveries starting in 2029. Smackover Lithium is a joint venture between Standard Lithium (55%) and Equinor (45%). The contract covers 8,000 tonnes per year, more than a third of the project's planned first-phase capacity of 22,500 tonnes per year.
Why it matters: This agreement supports the theme of supply-chain security by localising LGES's North American lithium sourcing, reducing reliance on foreign entities.
critical minerals · supply chain risk