Why the Middle East Oil Shock Failed to Save Russia’s Budget
Russia's federal budget collected 4.6 trillion rubles ($55.2 billion) in oil and gas taxes in the first seven months of the year, only 127.6 billion rubles ($1.52 billion) above original projections. Energy revenues were down 20% year-on-year and 35% compared to 2022. The shortfall is attributed to faster market stabilization, a stronger ruble, and Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of energy markets and fiscal stability, showing that geopolitical shocks do not automatically translate into sustained budget windfalls for Russia.