Value chains & chokepoints
The Arctic is emerging as a new area of competition among major powers, with Russia holding the largest presence, controlling about half of the land and maritime exclusive economic zone north of the Arctic Circle. Russia has 30 military sites in the wider Arctic and has invested in modernizing its nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Cooperation between Russia and Western countries has been suspended since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO has created a new strategic fault line. China, though not an Arctic state, has declared itself a 'near-Arctic state' and conducted a joint Arctic patrol with Russia in 2024.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of great-power competition, as the Arctic becomes a strategic fault line between Russia and NATO, with China's growing involvement adding to Western concerns.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
A US defense agreement with Ethiopia was signed on Aug. 21 during an Ethiopian military delegation's visit to Washington, described as a strategic framework for military and security cooperation. The timing coincided with Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Cairo, raising questions about US motivations. Analysts cited in the report suggest Washington aims to rebuild ties with Ethiopia, enhance Red Sea security, and counter Chinese and Russian influence, while some experts caution the agreement lacks binding treaties and direct funding.
Why it matters: This development reflects the theme of great-power competition in Africa, as the US seeks to counter Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Asia-Pacific
The US Navy has been developing repair and maintenance hubs in the Indo-Pacific, relying on allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to perform major maintenance, repair, and overhaul work on its vessels. This approach offers flexibility for forward-deployed ships, as US law mandates domestic construction for major warships but allows foreign MRO services under certain conditions. The capacity of regional allies is vital due to their proximity to potential conflict zones and the decline of the US shipbuilding base at home.
Why it matters: This development reflects the theme of strategic competition with Beijing, as the US seeks to sustain extended naval deployments in the Indo-Pacific without recalling ships to the mainland.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's November 2025 remarks on collective self-defense, China imposed economic measures and restricted exchanges. Takaichi has since reiterated that Japan's Taiwan and China policies are unchanged and expressed openness to dialogue. Recent signals include a greeting by Foreign Minister Motegi to his Chinese counterpart and Takaichi's positive comment on the upcoming APEC summit.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of great-power competition, as Japan seeks to manage tensions with China while maintaining its alliances.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth threatened on Saturday to destroy and sink Iranian oil tankers if Tehran fires on US Navy ships. He stated that the Iranian tanker fleet is defenseless and that US aircraft, ships, and submarines can strike them. The threat follows failed Iranian attacks on US warships, after which US Central Command announced it had disabled two Iranian Revolutionary Guard oil tankers and destroyed a third.
Why it matters: This escalation in US-Iran military tensions directly impacts the theme of 'energy security' as it threatens the flow of oil through critical maritime chokepoints.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after Iran attacked two US Navy warships. The strikes occurred on September 5, following Iranian ballistic missile launches at the US ships. CENTCOM stated that no US personnel were injured and that the tankers were part of a secret network funding Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
Why it matters: This incident highlights the theme of military escalation and economic warfare in the Gulf region.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
An Iranian tanker was hit by four US missiles near Kharg Island on September 5, according to the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim. Local sources reported no casualties and the crew was being evacuated. There was no immediate official confirmation from Iranian authorities or US Central Command.
Why it matters: This incident underscores the theme of energy security and geopolitical risk in the Gulf, as Kharg Island is a critical hub for Iranian crude exports.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Also reported by: Mint (Livemint)
Russian President Vladimir Putin met US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the Kremlin on Sept 5, telling them the situation in Ukraine is “difficult”. Putin praised US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war. Russian state media said the talks lasted about three hours, with no immediate comment from either side.
Why it matters: This meeting reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts in the Ukraine conflict, a key theme in geopolitical risk.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin ordered a three-day halt to strikes on Kyiv starting at midnight, citing preparations for contacts between American negotiators. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow to present a proposal to end the war, and are scheduled to travel to Kyiv afterward. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of trying to obstruct the visit by launching strikes on Kyiv airports and a civilian target in the Dnipro region, killing five people.
Why it matters: This development directly affects the diplomatic track of the Ukraine war, a central theme in the briefing on geopolitical conflict resolution.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Sub-Saharan Africa
Nearly a week after the mutiny in Niger, the government spokesman publicly read a short message accusing France and its 'African valets' of being responsible for the attempted coup of August 29. This rhetoric has been common since the military took power in 2023, but this time it does not name previously accused countries such as Chad.
Why it matters: This reflects the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Sahel, a key theme in the briefing on regional stability and foreign influence.
great power rivalry · critical minerals
New evidence published by The New York Times and The Washington Post reveals that the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, built a secret chemical weapons programme and later attempted to conceal it. The dossier includes videos, photographs, and documents suggesting the military developed chlorine munitions, tested them in the desert, and sourced chlorine from a civilian water treatment plant. The evidence also indicates that Al Burhan had direct knowledge of the programme, which was a factor in US sanctions against him.
Why it matters: This development underscores the theme of conflict and security, as it exposes the use of chemical weapons in the Sudanese civil war, which has created a major humanitarian crisis.
sanctions export controls
Americas
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one off Kharg Island, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships. Admiral Brad Cooper said the strikes were intended to impose a higher economic cost on the IRGC. No American personnel were harmed, and there was no immediate official announcement by Iranian authorities.
Why it matters: This incident reflects the theme of energy security, as it disrupts global oil supplies and follows a US blockade of Iranian exports.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bloomberg, Mint (Livemint), South China Morning Post, The National (UAE)
Argentina has ordered proceedings to investigate and penalise 45 entities linked to hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation around the Falkland Islands. Oilfield services firms Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes have stated they do not and will not work on projects near the islands. The move follows President Javier Milei's comment that the 'winds of change' favour Argentina's claim to the archipelago.
Why it matters: This action escalates the territorial dispute over the Falkland Islands, a key issue in regional geopolitics and energy security.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry