Energy security ties together today's items across Europe-Eurasia-MENA and Asia-Pacific: the BRICS declaration stresses undisrupted energy flows, while the Strait of Hormuz blockade and Houthi control of Bab Al Mandeb squeeze supply routes. At the same time, Russia's oil exports are increasingly concentrated in China and India, giving those buyers pricing power. In the Americas, Canada's plan to attract capital for pipelines and critical minerals reflects a parallel push to reduce reliance on the United States.
Value chains & chokepoints
The BRICS nations unanimously adopted the New Delhi Declaration. The declaration highlights the need to maintain undisrupted energy flows and protect critical energy infrastructure, including cross-border infrastructure, and expresses deep concern over the escalation in West Asia.
Why it matters: The declaration's emphasis on energy security shows that emerging economies view undisrupted energy flows and critical infrastructure protection as central to economic development and geoeconomic stability.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that the Middle East does not need the United States as a 'regional policeman,' speaking on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in India. He said regional security can only be guaranteed by the region's main players. Iran has been at war since February 28 and blockaded the Strait of Hormuz; the blockade continues to drive up oil prices, which soared past $100 a barrel this week.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy markets theme: the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to drive oil prices above $100 a barrel.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The New Delhi Declaration pushes for a cheaper and faster payments system and targets sanctions and unilateral tariffs. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said no member objected to the text. The declaration's Payment Task Force studied cross-border payment interoperability and held talks on using local currencies for trade settlements and investments.
Why it matters: This step advances the de-dollarisation theme by promoting local-currency trade settlements.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
Ship crossings in the Bab Al Mandeb strait fell to 15 on Friday from 30 a day earlier, according to Kpler data. The Houthis seized Perim Island, Mokha and Dhubab, giving them control over key areas overlooking the Red Sea and the strait.
Why it matters: This matters for the maritime chokepoints theme because Houthi control of Perim Island and the surrounding coast increases their ability to monitor and pressure vessels transiting Bab Al Mandeb, a critical route for global oil shipments.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
China has told the US that it intends to cancel a planned meeting between their leaders later in September if Washington approves any new arms sales to Taiwan by then, according to multiple sources familiar with bilateral ties. China has restated its position that the Taiwan issue is a “red line” in bilateral relations. US President Donald Trump places great importance on holding the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Why it matters: This matters for the US-China relations theme because Taiwan arms sales remain a flashpoint that can derail high-level engagement between the two governments.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Kyodo News (English), Taipei Times
Russian energy export volumes have recovered, but Moscow's ability to set prices continues to erode. About four-fifths of Russian oil exports now go to China and India, and the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline talks have stalled over price. Rosneft estimates China has saved nearly $27 billion on Russian oil since 2022.
Why it matters: This fits the briefing's theme of energy exports: Russia's redirected export system is becoming more concentrated, and buyers such as China are setting the terms.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline after a drone attack that Baghdad and Riyadh said originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, about 4% to 5% of global supply, as the main route for Middle East oil while the Strait of Hormuz was largely shut. The Houthis also seized the strategic island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because the closure of the East-West pipeline and Houthi advances threaten a major oil supply route.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: Red Sea shipping attacks, The Straits Times
On Sept 12, Yemen’s Riyadh-backed government forces said they struck Houthi fighters in Mokha, destroying vehicles and weapons and killing members near the port. The Houthis had captured Yemen’s Red Sea coast on Sept 11, including Mokha, and the offensive has killed more than 500 people and displaced about 46,000, according to the UN migration agency.
Why it matters: This bears on the maritime chokepoints theme because Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait threatens a vital artery for Saudi oil exports.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Middle East Eye
UN figures show more than 11,442 households, or about 80,000 people, were displaced in Yemen between September 3 and 9. The Houthi rebels seized Mokha port and the entire west coast fell under their control. The UN said the figures are likely under-reported, and MSF said its Aden hospital is preparing for mass casualties.
Why it matters: This matters for the humanitarian crisis theme: renewed hostilities in Yemen are driving displacement and straining already limited medical capacity.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Drone attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq against Saudi Arabia late on Friday were meant to show solidarity with the Houthis, who have seized Red Sea coastal areas of Yemen. Saudi Arabia said the drones attacked its East-West pipeline, forcing a shutdown, but it would not retaliate for now after a request from Iraq's Prime Minister. Iraq's prime minister dismissed a military commander and police chief, closed several border crossings with Iran, and agreed to a joint investigation with Iran.
Why it matters: This underscores the theme of proxy alignment, with Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen acting in concert against Saudi Arabia.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
The opposition platform BRDC issued a highly critical assessment of the first six months of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's new term, citing a lack of basic social services and weak economic opportunities and accusing the government of not respecting Constitutional Court decisions. At a press conference on 11 September, BRDC spokesperson Martin Ziguélé questioned the government about gold mining, noting that the government itself reported more than 100 mining permits and that figures circulating mention annual gold export value above 300 billion CFA francs, while the state budget records less than 5 billion CFA francs in taxes from the sector. Touadéra defended his record, citing progress in security, health, energy and education since 2016, and the government acknowledged that many challenges remain.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of resource governance, because the opposition's questions directly link gold export earnings to state revenue and demand transparency about the Ndassima mine.
critical minerals
Derotech Offshore Services, a Nigerian energy company, is holding negotiations with potential partners in Egypt as part of a regional expansion strategy. The company is also assessing opportunities in Namibia. Egypt has announced plans to drill about 480 exploratory wells over five years until 2030.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of energy investment, as it shows Nigerian drilling firms expanding into Egypt's planned drilling campaign.
supply chain risk
General Abdourahamane Tiani appointed several senior officers to key positions in the Nigerien Armed Forces by decree on Friday, less than two weeks after an attempted destabilization in Niamey. He dismissed army chief of staff General Moussa Salaou Barmou, replacing him with General Mahaman Sani Kiaou. The new leadership is tasked with addressing desertions, reorganizing troops for counter-terrorism, and calming ranks after Russian military intervention against part of the army.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of military governance, as the reshuffle signals an effort to consolidate control over the armed forces after internal unrest.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
The opposition has announced a march on 15 September against a third term, while Tshisekedi promotes an inclusive dialogue for peace. By an ordinance of 27 August, the CENCO-ECC was reduced to an “integrated team” within a preparatory commission run from the Presidency, and the dialogue imposes its venue, agenda, participants and pre-written conclusions. The process passed the Senate on 15 June and the Constitutional Court on 28 July.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of electoral integrity: the dialogue is presented as a peace mechanism but is used to prepare a constitutional change enabling a third term.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Americas
Trump said in Dublin that he expects the war with Iran to end after the US midterm elections in November, and that oil prices will then fall sharply. Iran's president said the Middle East does not need the US as a 'regional policeman.' The war began on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, and Tehran has since blockaded the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: This matters for the oil markets theme: the projected end of the war is tied to a sharp drop in crude prices.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The U.S. Department of Energy launched a $12 million funding opportunity for space-based solar cell manufacturing, with $8 million for next-generation cell innovation and $4 million for rapid production and demonstration. The program prioritizes mass, radiation tolerance, and durability over cost per watt, and is part of a critical minerals push because space solar manufacturing uses gallium and germanium inefficiently. China's suspended export ban on those minerals is set to resume November 27, 2026.
Why it matters: This advances the critical minerals theme by tying space solar manufacturing to gallium and germanium supply risks from China.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · green tech supply chain
Trump said the Houthis asked the US not to intervene in their conflict with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis expanded control along Yemen's Red Sea coast, seizing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia asked Trump twice to strike the Houthis, but he rejected the request.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing theme of Red Sea threat, as the Houthi advance and US non-intervention reshape the security of a global shipping chokepoint.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Middle East Eye
Canada is seeking to attract one trillion dollars in new capital as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney's plan to reduce economic reliance on the United States. Carney will host about 200 financial executives in Toronto next week, and the plan involves directing funds to 167 projects including pipelines, nuclear energy, mining, railways, ports, and AI data centers. The initiative follows the collapse of trade talks with Washington last month, and business leaders warn that stability alone will not suffice, calling for tax cuts, faster permits, and regulatory improvements.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of economic diversification, as Canada seeks to reduce its reliance on the United States and attract foreign investment.
supply chain risk · critical minerals