Energy chokepoints and technology blocs pull in opposite directions today. Houthi strikes have shut the East-West pipeline and disrupted Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic, pushing Brent to around $90 and European gas above EUR70/MWh, while Black Sea attacks constrain wheat, oil and fertilizer shipments. Against that, Gulf states keep US and Chinese AI options open, Canada weighs EU associate membership amid US tariffs, and BRICS splits over technology and critical minerals even as it backs local-currency settlement. Asia-Pacific, Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa each register the strain: Chinese storage deals abroad, African refining delays, and Senegal's crude-led export surge.
Value chains & chokepoints
Saudi Arabia is building AI infrastructure with US firms and chips, while state-backed HUMAIN has unveiled Arabic technology based on a model from China's MiniMax. HUMAIN has agreed that Chinese frontier models will not be trained on computing capacity obtained through US export approvals, while maintaining relationships with Chinese firms such as ByteDance, Tencent Cloud, and Lenovo. DataVolt is constructing a roughly $1 billion, 100-megawatt facility at NEOM designed to export compute.
Why it matters: This illustrates how geopolitical flexibility allows Gulf states to avoid choosing between US and Chinese AI blocs, positioning them as swing states in the AI competition.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney is exploring whether Canada could become an "associate member" of the European Union, the Wall Street Journal reported. The EU is open to granting Canada a yet-to-be-created status of associate membership, according to unnamed EU and Canadian officials. Canada and the EU are discussing allowing goods, services and workers in strategic supply chains such as energy, AI, defense and critical minerals to move freely, as well as laying underwater cables, jointly constructing data centers, cloud storage and new satellite networks, and infrastructure to ship Canadian energy to the EU.
Why it matters: The move reflects a strategic realignment in trade and supply chains as Canada's escalating trade war with the United States pushes it toward closer ties with the EU.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The BRICS summit in New Delhi concluded with a joint declaration that seeks common ground among the Global South on technological and social sector collaboration. The declaration addresses West Asia, calling for a smooth flow of global trade, supply chains and energy in accordance with international law, and criticises indiscriminate tariffs and protectionism under the guise of environmental objectives. A BRICS currency has been shelved, but local currency settlement systems have expanded, with China's Cross Border Interbank Payment System allowing multi-currency settlements since February 2026.
Why it matters: The summit illustrates the theme of global governance reform, as BRICS positions itself as a countervailing force to the US and advocates for greater developing-country say in institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, UNSC, UNFCC and WTO.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The H-6N bomber carries the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, which completes China's nuclear triad alongside intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. In July 2024, two H-6s conducted a joint patrol near Alaska with Russian Tu-95 bombers, prompting the US-Canadian North American Aerospace Defence Command to scramble fighter jets. The H-6 has been Beijing's primary strategic strike aircraft for six decades.
Why it matters: The completion of the nuclear triad through the airborne leg affects nuclear deterrence and second-strike capability.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
The BRICS Business Council has called for a supply-chain resilience framework and deeper co-operation in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. The Council presented a report with recommendations focused on strengthening resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability, intended as a guide for the four pillars of India's BRICS Chairmanship. The report also emphasises paperless trade, electronic documentation, greater interoperability among digital systems, and identifies opportunities for cooperation on green hydrogen, biofuel, sustainable aviation fuel, and low-carbon fuels.
Why it matters: The Council's recommendations on supply-chain resilience and technology cooperation reflect the theme of global economic governance and trade, as BRICS economies representing around 40 per cent of global GDP seek to strengthen information sharing and preparedness during disruptions.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Mint (Livemint)
Asia-Pacific
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the BRICS Summit in New Delhi that the weaponisation of technology and critical minerals could become a hurdle to shared progress, and called for inclusive access to technology. He outlined initiatives including a BRICS Integrated Early Warning System for infectious diseases, a BRICS Logistics Supply Chain Cooperation Framework, a BRICS Incubator Network, a proposed BRICS Startup Innovation Fund, a BRICS Network on Digital Agriculture, and Centres of Excellence for smart grids, energy storage, agro-ecology and regenerative agriculture. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the session, and his meeting with Modi on the sidelines increased expectations of solutions on trade and investment concerns including assured supplies of rare earth elements and magnets, while border tensions remain a challenge.
Why it matters: The remarks address supply-chain vulnerabilities and economic coercion raised by China's periodic export restrictions on critical minerals and related technologies, a concern for the briefing's theme of geoeconomic fragmentation.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: "critical minerals" supply chain, Mint (Livemint)
Three Chinese companies, HiNa Battery, Sineng Electric and Zonergy, have signed supply agreements or completed deliveries of electricity storage batteries in European and Asian markets. HiNa Battery signed a five-year agreement with South Korea's VOLTA in September to supply sodium-ion battery cells with capacity up to 10 GWh. Sineng Electric supplied equipment for a 602 MWh storage project in Burgas, Bulgaria, and Zonergy delivered sodium-ion cells with capacity exceeding 10 MWh to a Chinese state-owned entity and a hybrid solar and storage project in Xingyang.
Why it matters: The contracts show Chinese firms expanding their role in clean energy technology supply chains across European and Asian markets.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Over 1,300 chipmakers and suppliers exhibited at the Semicon Taiwan trade show in Taipei, which also displayed the island's chip diplomacy efforts. The article asks whether helping other countries build semiconductor supply chains can enhance Taiwan's security by sacrificing some economic advantage.
Why it matters: Taiwan's chip diplomacy illustrates how semiconductor supply-chain interdependence is used as a tool of statecraft and economic security.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding proved short-lived and mediation efforts have yet to restart negotiations, with ICE Brent trading back around $90/bbl. Persian Gulf oil exports, including pipeline bypass volumes, are roughly 50% of pre-war levels, and China's crude oil imports in July averaged 8.45m b/d, down 2.7m b/d year-on-year. Diesel and gasoil cracks have reached record highs as Persian Gulf disruptions coincide with reduced Russian supply, while European gas prices have recently exceeded EUR70/MWh.
Why it matters: The revised forecasts and supply disruptions illustrate how energy price and trade flows are being reshaped by geopolitical stalemate and conflict.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded his trip to India with an offer to help Brics members develop open-source AI and smart manufacturing. Summit host Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned against turning technology and critical minerals into economic weapons. The summit produced a joint declaration against US tariffs, sanctions and "America first" pressure, while concerns over minerals and technology exposed limits to unity.
Why it matters: The exchange illustrates the tension between US-China tech competition and the Global South's efforts to maintain a united front on economic policy.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Yemen's Houthis said on Sept 13 that Saudi Arabia had launched more than 50 strikes against their positions in 24 hours, after the group claimed a drone and missile attack on a military base in the kingdom. The Houthis have been engaged in renewed fighting with Saudi-backed government forces since Yemen's civil war reignited in July, when the group declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea. The fighting in recent weeks has displaced nearly 86,000 people, a UN agency said on Sept 13.
Why it matters: The renewed hostilities and maritime blockade affect Red Sea shipping and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint for global trade and energy flows.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Middle East Eye
A vessel was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire and forcing the crew to evacuate, while Iran reported one person killed and four wounded on an Iranian commercial vessel off its coast. In Saudi Arabia, state media showed damage to homes and a mosque in Jazan province from an attack the Houthis claimed, and the Houthis said they struck a Saudi military base in a neighbouring province. The Houthis also captured Perim Island in the Bab El-Mandeb, and a drone strike on Friday knocked out the 1,200-km east-west pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula.
Why it matters: The disruption to energy supplies and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb directly affects global oil markets and the broader war's economic impact.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Also reported by: South China Morning Post
Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for export if it does not restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4 per cent of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders said. The pipeline was shut on Sept 11 after drone attacks, and Yanbu now has stocks to maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to three industry sources. Saudi oil supply has already fallen to a more than three-decade low in August, the International Energy Agency said on Sept 11.
Why it matters: The disruption affects global energy supply and trade flows, as the pipeline rerouted around 4 million barrels per day, or 4 per cent of global supply, and its continued shutdown could worsen the global supply crunch.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure
Yemeni government forces launched attacks against the Houthi group along the Red Sea on Sunday, after conceding the port city of Mokha and an island on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week. The National Resistance said more than 500 government fighters were killed on the west coast over the past four weeks and about 1,500 wounded since August 9, while more than 1,000 Houthis were killed in Hodeidah and Taiz provinces. The United Nations estimated that more than 80,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since the start of September, and the International Organization for Migration said more than 2,000 Yemenis have reached Djibouti.
Why it matters: The Houthi advance along the Red Sea coast places them near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the US military base in Djibouti, affecting the geoeconomics of trade routes and regional military positioning.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Also reported by: Bing News: Red Sea shipping attacks
Russia launched a large airstrike on Odesa and the surrounding region, using sea-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and 129 drones across Ukraine, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Ukraine's air defenses shot down or suppressed 110 aerial targets, and at least 17 people were injured, said Serhiy Lysak, head of the Odesa military administration. Russia and Ukraine have increased attacks on vessels and port facilities in the Black Sea over the past two months, constraining shipments of commodities including wheat, oil, fertilizers and coal.
Why it matters: The disruption of Black Sea shipping affects global commodity flows, a key concern for the briefing's trade theme.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Saudi oil stocks in Egypt are held at the Ain Sokhna and Sidi Kerir terminals within the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) system, which has a storage capacity of about 40 million barrels and an operating capacity of about 2.8 million barrels per day. The East-West pipeline, which normally carries millions of barrels per day to Yanbu, has stopped, and repair estimates range from 5 to 6 weeks. The stocks provide temporary supply but are not full and will be depleted gradually if the pipeline does not resume operations.
Why it matters: The episode illustrates how energy infrastructure and chokepoints shape supply security, as the halt of the East-West pipeline and disruption at the Strait of Hormuz test the role of Egyptian storage and SUMED in maintaining crude flows.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Gibson reports that high refining margins have spurred ongoing refining projects across Africa, with national security interests as a driver. The Dangote refinery aims to double capacity to 1.4mbd by 2029, but delays and financing uncertainties cast doubt on completion. Several other projects, including in Kenya, Tanzania, Côte d'Ivoire, Angola, and South Africa, are in early stages with no final investment decisions taken.
Why it matters: The slow progress of African refining projects affects global energy trade flows and shipping demand, as reliance on imports from India and the Middle East persists.
supply chain risk
In July 2026, Senegal's exports rose by more than 27%, to nearly 670 billion FCFA. Crude oil exports reached 273 billion FCFA, three times the June level, with refined petroleum products and phosphoric acid also contributing. Sales of liquefied natural gas, hydraulic cement and fish declined, while over one year exports grew by more than half.
Why it matters: The figures confirm the growing weight of hydrocarbons in Senegal's trade balance, a shift in energy-export composition that bears on the country's external accounts.
supply chain risk
The first report of the Baromètre des accords de paix en Afrique assesses the Doha peace process between the DRC and the armed group AFC/M23, backed by neighbouring Rwanda, whose talks began in July 2025. It finds progress "modest": Kinshasa released AFC/M23 prisoners in August 2026, but only 15 of 477 identified detainees were handled by the ICRC, and the ceasefire verification mechanism has a completion rate of just over 17%. Only two of eight protocols have been signed, with the report citing persistent mistrust, continued hostilities and reduced diplomatic attention.
Why it matters: The report documents the slow implementation of a peace agreement, a case of conflict resolution in which verification and prisoner-exchange mechanisms remain incomplete.
great power rivalry
Chadian general Ousmane Dillo is leading an armed, judicial and diplomatic campaign to uncover the truth about the death of his brother, Yaya Dillo Djerou, and to overthrow Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. He was last in El Fasher, Sudan, where he mobilised his men, many of them Chadian Zaghawas, to prevent the city's fall to the Rapid Support Forces of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemetti. An ally of the Sudanese army and governor Minni Minnawi, he said he intended to "prevent a genocide".
Why it matters: This illustrates the cross-border dynamics of conflict and political contestation in the Sahel and Sudan.
geostrategy military basing
Lunzua Power Company Limited and Valinor Investments Limited have broken ground on a 10 MW solar photovoltaic plant in Mwandi District, Western Province, Zambia. The joint venture is valued at an estimated US$8 million and will be financed on a 30:70 equity-to-debt basis, with SANY International (Zambia) Industrial Company Limited as contractor. The plant is expected to generate approximately 22 GWh per year and create around 100 construction jobs over a six-month period.
Why it matters: The project adds renewable generation capacity to Zambia's national grid, which relates to the theme of energy transition and energy security.
green tech supply chain
Americas
U.S. President Donald Trump called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a fuel shortage that is "hurting the world". Ukrainian long-distance drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have reduced Russia's fuel production and triggered gasoline shortages. Ukraine says refineries are legitimate military targets.
Why it matters: The exchange bears on the energy security theme, as strikes on refining capacity and the resulting diesel shortage affect global fuel markets.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English), The Kyiv Independent, The Moscow Times, The National (UAE)
On August 22, after the US applied 50 per cent tariffs on US$20 billion worth of Canadian goods, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada would impose matching tariffs on American exports of the same scale. Canada sends nearly three-quarters of its merchandise exports to the United States and shares a border of nearly 9,000 kilometres with it. The text states that Canada's decision to walk away from talks and impose counter-tariffs marks a turning point.
Why it matters: The shift in Canada's trade posture illustrates how US tariff policy is reshaping alliances and the global order.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting diesel infrastructure in Russia. Trump told reporters during a visit to Ireland that there are many other targets and that they should stop disrupting Russian diesel fuel supplies. The appeal follows months in which Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and energy facilities, taking some refineries offline or reducing output and causing fuel shortages and queues at filling stations in several regions.
Why it matters: The appeal bears on the energy security theme, as disruptions to Russian refining have raised pressure on global diesel markets and Moscow has extended its diesel export ban.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
House Speaker Mike Johnson warned that moving too quickly to curb AI development could cost the United States the tech race to China. Johnson called for a meeting in Congress with top AI executives to determine how best to regulate the industry, adding that he had discussed the idea with President Donald Trump. His remarks follow calls by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and others to slow down AI development amid concerns over risks from advanced systems.
Why it matters: The debate over AI regulation reflects tensions in US tech policy, as concerns about AI safety and oversight intersect with geopolitical competition with China.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Since January 2026, following the US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Washington has imposed a near-total energy blockade on Havana, cutting off access to Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration aims to force Cuba's leadership toward political and economic opening, potentially making the island a dependent partner or even a protectorate like Venezuela. Consequences include 20- to 22-hour daily power outages in Havana, critical food and medicine shortages, and social tensions with protests.
Why it matters: The US pressure on Cuba reflects a geoeconomic strategy of using energy blockades to force political and economic alignment, with implications for regional stability and great-power competition.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump on Sunday dismissed concerns about the rapid development of artificial intelligence, describing critics as "very negative forces" raising fears that will not materialise. Speaking to reporters at his golf course in Ireland, he said the United States leads China in AI and that he wants to maintain that position. His remarks followed warnings from researchers at Anthropic that the technology could pose an existential risk to humanity.
Why it matters: The remarks set the tone for US technology governance, where the administration's support for AI firms contrasts with calls from executives and researchers to slow development.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry