Energy price forecasts revised higher amid stalemate
The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding proved short-lived and mediation efforts have yet to restart negotiations, with ICE Brent trading back around $90/bbl. Persian Gulf oil exports, including pipeline bypass volumes, are roughly 50% of pre-war levels, and China's crude oil imports in July averaged 8.45m b/d, down 2.7m b/d year-on-year. Diesel and gasoil cracks have reached record highs as Persian Gulf disruptions coincide with reduced Russian supply, while European gas prices have recently exceeded EUR70/MWh.
Why it matters: The revised forecasts and supply disruptions illustrate how energy price and trade flows are being reshaped by geopolitical stalemate and conflict.