Today's items show energy and critical-mineral supply chains being pulled between US pressure and regional countermoves. In Asia-Pacific, China and India reject US sanctions and tariff threats over Russian and Iranian oil, while Australia's iron-ore earnings face a projected decline. Europe enters winter with gas storage below target and the EU objecting to Chinese control of nickel supplies. In the Americas, US tariff policy is distorting copper trade and seeking advance oversight of Brazilian mineral assets. Across these regions, state intervention is reshaping trade flows and investment decisions.
Value chains & chokepoints
A CSIS report released on Sept 17 said China upgraded its Djibouti military base with new antennas, satellite communications equipment and other assets. The report said two new communications compounds likely form part of a broader intelligence and military command architecture and would strengthen communications between Chinese forces in the Middle East and Africa and headquarters in China. It said the upgrades would give China a more robust picture of the regional operating environment.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of China's overseas military basing, as the upgrades extend Chinese monitoring capacity near a critical maritime choke point.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bing News: naval base China
The European Commission has formally objected to MMG’s planned purchase of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel business for up to $500 million, saying the deal may restrict competition by allowing the miner to divert low-carbon ferronickel away from Europe to affiliated Chinese stainless steel producers. MMG responded that Europe remains the most attractive market for the Brazilian ferronickel, pledged to maintain or increase supplies, and said it is prepared to provide guarantees to European customers or the Commission. The commission has until Nov. 30 to make a final decision.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing’s theme of critical minerals and supply-chain security, as the EU is trying to keep Chinese state-controlled ownership from redirecting low-carbon ferronickel away from European buyers.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Two Chinese firms laundered more than $1.5 billion of Iran oil proceeds. China's Ministry of Commerce issued an injunction to block US sanctions on five Chinese refiners accused of buying Iranian oil. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined sanctions against 60 entities and threatened secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of sanctions, as US secondary sanctions on Iranian oil are being contested by Chinese commercial and state actions.
sanctions export controls
The US House of Representatives passed a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia over the Ukraine war; the Senate had already passed it, and it is expected to be signed by President Trump. India said it had apprised Washington of the likely impact on bilateral ties and the global oil market and would take all necessary steps to safeguard its energy security and economic interests. Crude oil prices topped $100 a barrel, and India imports about 90% of its crude oil, more than a third from Russia.
Why it matters: The episode directly engages the briefing's theme of energy security, as India's reliance on Russian crude is now subject to US legislative pressure with potential tariff consequences.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
China rejected the US use of tariffs to pressure countries over their purchases of Russian oil and gas, saying it would not accept Washington's 'long-arm jurisdiction' or interference in its trade. The warning followed the US House of Representatives' passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026, which authorizes tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy, including China and India. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Beijing opposes unilateral sanctions lacking UN Security Council authorization.
Why it matters: This matters for the geoeconomics theme because it shows US tariff threats on Russian energy buyers are forcing China and India to balance energy security against bilateral ties with Washington.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
The analysis uses six charts to illustrate the implications of the partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz on global energy markets. Brent crude prices rose from around $70 per barrel in February to $145 in April, settling around $90 per barrel by the end of August. Europe entered its heating season with gas storage at 68 percent, below its 80 percent target.
Why it matters: This matters for the global energy crisis: the combination of a closed Strait of Hormuz and low European storage leaves markets exposed to further supply shocks.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The government’s June outlook projects iron ore export earnings to fall from A$116.6 billion in 2025–26 to A$77.2 billion in 2030–31, a 34 percent reduction against a decline in export volumes of about 2 percent. China’s crude steel production fell 3.1 percent to 577 million tonnes in January–July 2026, while its iron ore imports rose 5.9 percent to 736.8 million tonnes. A Reuters report described China Mineral Resources Group directing some mills to halt negotiations with Rio Tinto for September shipments.
Why it matters: This matters for economic security: Australia’s mineral income is exposed to China’s concentrated purchasing power, and the forecast decline in export earnings underscores the need to preserve future options beyond defending tonnage.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The EU is currently relying on China to voluntarily limit hybrid vehicle imports, but may change course. The EU seeks a commitment from Beijing to cap Chinese-made hybrids at around 15% of the EU market, where they currently hold over a third. Imports of Chinese hybrids reached a record high in the second quarter, with sales rising from 3,800 vehicles in October 2024 to 50,000 in July.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of trade, as the EU is shifting from voluntary restraint to potential tariffs on Chinese hybrids.
sanctions export controls · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump will greet China’s leader Xi Jinping in Washington next week, the first leader to receive that deference in Trump’s second term. Top diplomats spoke Thursday, possibly to finalize an agenda centered on trade, AI governance, and defense ties. Experts doubt major breakthroughs, and Asian allies worry Trump may soften US support for Taiwan for economic concessions.
Why it matters: The summit preparations bear directly on the briefing’s trade theme, as trade issues are central to the agenda and may influence US policy on Taiwan.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
On July 22, the US and Saudi Arabia finalized a nuclear deal that gave the kingdom a pathway to enrich uranium. Fifty-four days later, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced an estimated 110 million tonnes of ore with promising concentrations of uranium near Medina, without saying when it was found. The deposit's value depends on concentration, grade, and recovery rate; Chinese geologists have surveyed potential uranium sites, and Beijing reportedly helped build a facility to extract yellowcake from ore.
Why it matters: The find touches the briefing's critical minerals theme, linking the US nuclear deal, Chinese survey activity, and Saudi resource development.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
One person was killed and two were injured by debris from a Houthi drone that was intercepted and destroyed over Taif governorate, Saudi Arabia. The deceased was a Yemeni citizen; the injured include a Saudi woman and a Pakistani in critical condition. The debris also damaged buildings and vehicles.
Why it matters: This incident underscores the regional conflict theme, as Iran-aligned Houthi attacks continue to target Saudi territory.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English)
IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez warned governments against using conflicts as a pretext to attack merchant vessels and seafarers. The IMO has verified 80 attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, killing at least 22 seafarers. Attacks have also caused fatalities in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, and four seafarers were killed in a Houthi attack in the Red Sea on August 11.
Why it matters: This matters for maritime security and global supply chains, as attacks on shipping across multiple chokepoints threaten energy flows, commodity markets and the safety of seafarers.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Oil prices extended their decline on signs that Middle East supply disruptions are easing, with Saudi Arabia seeking to restore about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days. Brent traded near $102 a barrel after losing 2.7% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was below $100. Prices fell further after Reuters reported that China had asked Iran to help rein in the Houthis.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy security theme because it shows how supply disruptions and their partial restoration in the Middle East remain a central driver of global oil price volatility.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Europe is approaching winter with high gas prices, escalating conflicts disrupting supply, and gas storage at the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. EU LNG imports fell by 3.5% year on year between January and August 2026, while pipeline imports rose by 2.5%. Around 60% of the EU's LNG imports so far this year have come from the US, and EU gas storage was 68.04% full on 12 September 2026.
Why it matters: For the Energy Security theme, the report underscores that Europe's reliance on LNG spot markets and US supply leaves it exposed to global shipping bottlenecks and bidding wars, with demand reduction as the main lever within its control.
supply chain risk
Von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech recognized energy challenges from the Iran and Ukraine wars, linking climate policy to security, competitiveness, and resilience. Experts called the diagnosis convincing but the answer unconvincing, urging a technology-neutral approach, expanded domestic supply, and better cooperation among member states.
Why it matters: This analysis underscores the briefing's theme of energy security by showing that the EU must move from target-setting to concrete investment and infrastructure protection.
supply chain risk
Russia and China vetoed a US-drafted UN Security Council resolution to extend the mandate of the panel of experts monitoring sanctions on Iran for another year. The vote was 11 in favour, two abstentions and two against. The veto followed a dispute over the snapback mechanism, and the panel has yet to be reconstituted, with the US saying the move would leave a gap in monitoring Iran.
Why it matters: It underscores the theme of sanctions enforcement and the fragmentation of UN Security Council monitoring.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
L’Autorité de régulation de la sous-traitance dans le secteur privé (ARSP) has ordered Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda Mining, both Glencore subsidiaries, to terminate contracts with non-eligible subcontractors. More than 1,500 companies are affected, including about 950 of Kamoto's 1,427 declared suppliers and roughly 40% of Mutanda's 1,300 providers. The companies have 30 days to present a termination schedule.
Why it matters: This decision highlights the theme of local-content regulation in the mining sector, as the ARSP enforces Congolese ownership requirements.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
At the 46th SADC Summit in Durban, leaders endorsed industrialisation goals, but key integration instruments remain stalled. The 2005 Protocol on the Facilitation of Movement of Persons has been signed by only 10 member states, and the Regional Development Fund has been ratified by just four. The communiqué only urges ratification, leaving the financing gap unresolved.
Why it matters: This highlights the financing gap that threatens SADC's integration agenda, as the Regional Development Fund remains undercapitalised and unratified.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Exmar has entered into agreements with state-owned CI-Energies and Petroci to lease a 152,000 cu m FSRU at the Port of Abidjan for 10 years. The project revives plans for an LNG import terminal in Ivory Coast that date back to 2016 and never reached operation. Exmar is expanding its floating LNG infrastructure portfolio with additional vessels and contracts.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of floating LNG infrastructure, as it adds a long-term contract to Exmar's growing portfolio and advances Ivory Coast's long-delayed LNG import plans.
supply chain risk
Also reported by: Offshore Energy
Senegal's energy ministry signed a protocol with ENI to evaluate the oil and gas potential of five offshore blocks in the Sine Saloum area. ENI will study the blocks for an initial three years at its own expense, though this is not an exploitation permit. Senegal already produces from the Sangomar field, which delivered 36.2 million barrels in 2025.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of energy exploration, as Senegal seeks to expand offshore prospecting while transferring heavy exploration costs to international partners.
supply chain risk
Central Africa holds significant reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt, copper, manganese, lithium, coltan and graphite, but most production is still exported without local processing. The DRC has adopted a national strategy favouring local transformation and tightened export restrictions on copper and cobalt concentrates, while Gabon aims to process all its manganese locally by 2029. The article argues that regional integration is needed to build industrial capacity and avoid new dependencies.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing's theme of critical minerals, showing that the contest over processing and value chains, not extraction, will determine Central Africa's economic sovereignty.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Ghana Gas hopes to take a final investment decision in 2027 on a domestic east-west gas pipeline, a project first conceived a decade ago. CEO Judith Adjopah Blay said the pipeline would cost $500 million and would carry gas from the company's processing plant in the west to industries in the southeast. The company is seeking financing and expects higher gas volumes from the Sankofa offshore project after its output rises to 350 million cubic feet per day in 2028.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security, as Ghana seeks to cut import dependence and provide reliable gas supply for its industrial zones.
chokepoint infrastructure
Americas
Export Development Canada said a sustained shift into more sophisticated exports could add as much as $98 billion (US$70 billion) a year to Canada’s economy by 2035. The report argues that extracting more critical minerals will not deliver the largest economic payoff unless Canada keeps more processing, technology and manufacturing at home. It identified rare earths, graphite, lithium, copper and uranium as commodities with scope for more domestic value creation.
Why it matters: The report ties Canada's economic complexity decline to the critical-minerals theme, arguing that domestic processing capacity determines whether resource wealth translates into sustained growth.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
US copper policy is generating distorted trade flows: July refined copper and alloy imports hit a record 225,094 tonnes, up 78% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year, as traders front-loaded ahead of possible tariffs. The US imports about half of its copper requirements, and refined imports have risen sixteen-fold since 2015 while domestic production declined. With only two primary smelters operating, new domestic mine output such as Rio Tinto's Resolution Copper may need to be exported for processing.
Why it matters: This illustrates the briefing theme of seaborne trade flows: US policy is creating additional two-way shipping demand rather than the shortened supply chain Washington intends.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
The article argues that Beijing pursues a climate strategy that weakens the West while strengthening China's competitive position. It states that the Net Zero movement restricts fossil fuels and nuclear power, and that its criticism targets Western energy and industry rather than China, the world's largest emitter. It also cites climate figures praising China and reports that an American entrepreneur linked to Chinese government media financed groups such as Code Pink, which shifted to defending China.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's Net Zero theme because it shows how climate policy can be used as a geopolitical tool to advantage China over the United States.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Jamieson Greer asked Brazil to curb 'non-market' buyers of critical minerals in exchange for relief from US tariffs. The proposal would give Washington advance notice of mining asset sales, subject transactions involving rare earths to US review, and allow American companies to buy assets before sales were approved. Brazilian officials interpreted the phrase as a reference to China.
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme, as the United States is using tariff relief to gain advance oversight of mining asset sales in Brazil.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The United States House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by 262 to 159, sending it to President Donald Trump. The bill targets Russia's energy and defense industries and its shadow fleet, authorizes tariffs on China and India, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said additional sanctions would complicate peace efforts in Ukraine.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of sanctions, as it highlights the tension between congressional action and presidential discretion in applying economic pressure on Russia.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
The US is expected to delay announcing new tariffs over excess manufacturing capacity until after the planned summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Bloomberg reported that the administration had intended to release a trade report before the meeting recommending a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods. The reason for the delay is unclear, and it is uncertain whether the final tariff rate will change.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of trade policy, as the timing and level of tariffs on Chinese goods shape US-China economic relations.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk