Energy security and supply-chain resilience dominate today's items across Asia-Pacific and the Americas. In Europe-Eurasia-MENA, new US sanctions on Russia and reported Houthi strikes on Riyadh and an Aramco facility heighten pressure on oil and gas flows, while US Central Command says it secured passage of over one billion barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. In Asia-Pacific, US-China talks over LNG tariffs and Petronas' discussions with Philippine buyers reflect efforts to stabilise supply. In the Americas, the US-Greenland agreement and Brazil's rare earth progress show resource access and diversification.
Value chains & chokepoints
US President Donald Trump signed a Bill authorising new sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, after Congress approved the package this week following months of delay. The legislation targets Russia's energy and defence sectors, Putin and senior officials, and allows tariffs of up to 100 per cent on major buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Why it matters: This matters for the sanctions theme: the law expands US tools to cut off revenue financing Russia's war.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English), The Moscow Times
President Trump signed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18, authorising tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries buying Russian oil and gas, including India. Indian exporters said the law creates uncertainty and could severely disrupt exports, but the impact depends on the tariff rate, product coverage and implementation schedule.
Why it matters: This matters for trade policy because it illustrates how US sanctions legislation can inject uncertainty into bilateral trade relations and affect export decisions.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Kazakhstan is the only country to have joined both the US-led Pax Silica and China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO). A draft US State Department letter would make participation in Pax Silica contingent on an exclusive commitment, limiting members' ability to engage with WAICO. Kazakhstan's AI infrastructure is built around American chip technology, and it has not yet been forced to make a choice.
Why it matters: The episode tests Kazakhstan's multi-vector AI diplomacy by exposing its technological dependence on US infrastructure.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
According to a CSIS analysis published on 17 September 2026, Beijing has installed new communications and intelligence equipment at its military base in Djibouti, its only officially recognized overseas military installation. Satellite images show new antennas, satellite communication systems and two complexes built since 2024. The equipment could allow secure communication with Chinese ships and aircraft and surveillance of foreign forces based within 16 kilometres.
Why it matters: This bears on the geoeconomics theme, as Djibouti's position at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, through which about 16% of world maritime trade passes, makes China's expanded surveillance capacity relevant to global trade routes and regional military competition.
geostrategy military basing · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Petronas is in direct talks with Philippine buyers over LNG supplies, according to The Philippine Star. The discussions occur as the Philippines faces tight power supply and global energy market turbulence from Middle East conflict. Petronas has already sent spot LNG cargoes to Manila from Bintulu, and its CEO said discussions are ongoing.
Why it matters: This illustrates energy security concerns in Southeast Asia as buyers seek alternatives to coal amid supply disruptions.
supply chain risk
U.S. lawmakers and the Pentagon are investigating a shipment of unserviceable F-35 components that was diverted from Australia to Hong Kong while en route to the United States for repair. The diverted equipment reportedly included an F-35 canopy, and the current location and custody of the shipment were not known as of Friday. There is no public indication that Chinese authorities or the military have obtained the parts.
Why it matters: The incident highlights the chain-of-custody challenges in the F-35 program's global sustainment and repair network, underscoring the supply-chain theme.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The Yemeni delegation to the multinational maritime coalition called for unifying international efforts and intensifying regional coordination to confront threats to maritime navigation. It stressed the need for operational and technical support to restore Yemeni naval readiness, noting that Houthi threats in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden have affected trade and global supply chains. Separately, Yemeni forces reported killing 12 Houthi militants in Marib, while clashes continued near Bab al-Mandeb and Taiz, and IRGC experts reportedly visited the Bab al-Mandeb region to install radars and oversee tunnel excavation.
Why it matters: This matters for the maritime navigation theme because it links Houthi and Iranian activity around Bab al-Mandeb to direct threats against international shipping lanes and global supply chains.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Yemeni government forces repelled Houthi attempts to seize high ground east of Bab al-Mandab and west of Taiz, with heavy fighting on the Kahboub and Al-Wazi’iyah fronts. The operations aim to prevent the Houthis from consolidating their control of Bab al-Mandab, Mayyun Island and the western coast. Houthi shelling of Al-Turairah village killed three children.
Why it matters: This bears directly on the maritime chokepoints theme, since control of the highlands around Bab al-Mandab determines whether the Houthis can entrench their position over the strait.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Reuters quoted Yemen's Houthis as saying they had targeted Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia with missiles. The Houthis said they struck Riyadh with ballistic missiles and targeted an Aramco facility in Yanbu. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh saw major flight disruption, and a fuel tank belonging to Aramco near the airport caught fire.
Why it matters: The reported strikes on Riyadh and an Aramco facility bear directly on the briefing's energy-security theme.
geostrategy military basing · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
The DRC government has presented a 2027 draft budget of nearly $25 billion, with security among its main priorities. To finance it, it plans to increase domestic revenue, but acknowledges it does not fully control the volumes and value of minerals produced and exported. The mining sector is expected to yield $6.5 billion next year, and authorities estimate weak controls cost the country nearly half of its potential mining revenues.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of fiscal capacity, as the DRC's inability to capture mineral revenues directly affects its ability to fund security and other state priorities.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
In the night of 18–19 September, jihadists attacked a security post at Kasséla on the outskirts of Bamako, arriving on foot and leaving with weapons and ammunition; two soldiers initially reported missing were found safe. On Saturday, a drone base at Sévaré in central Mali was targeted by kamikaze drones; no toll was available and the airport area was sealed. The attacks come ahead of Mali's independence day on 22 September.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of jihadist insurgency and military rule in the Sahel, as attacks target state security infrastructure near the capital and ahead of a national holiday.
geostrategy military basing
Jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS continue to expand their operations and develop fighting and financing methods. According to the African Strategic Studies Center, 23,872 people were killed in violence linked to armed Islamist groups in the twelve months to mid-2026, the fourth consecutive year deaths exceeded 20,000. The Sahel accounted for 42 percent of deaths.
Why it matters: The continued expansion of jihadist groups despite more than a decade of military operations highlights the briefing's counterterrorism theme: military-centric approaches have not contained the threat in Africa.
chokepoint infrastructure · geostrategy military basing
Americas
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said on Saturday that the command supported the transit of more than one billion barrels of crude oil from Gulf states through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two months. He added that more than 2,000 commercial ships had been secured passage, that the main transit lanes were clear of mines, and that Iran had not exported a single barrel because of the blockade. Volumes of crude, goods and liquefied natural gas in the past two weeks were higher than at any time in the previous six months.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of maritime security, as control of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects global energy flows.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The US and China are discussing reducing or eliminating China's tariffs on American LNG as part of a broader package of energy and agriculture agreements ahead of a September 24 meeting between Trump and Xi. China's 15% tariff on US LNG, imposed in February 2025, halted the trade, with US exports to China falling from 64 vessels in 2024 to effectively zero in 2025. The discussions are not final, and neither the White House nor the Chinese embassy responded to requests for comment.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy theme because restoring Chinese demand would help absorb new US LNG export capacity.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Laboratory tests by Brazil's IMC Rare Earths at its Itarantim project achieved terbium extraction rates up to 95.2% and produced mixed rare earth carbonate. The project holds inferred mineral resources of about 1.1 billion tonnes and is an ion-adsorption clay deposit spanning Bahia and Minas Gerais. It contains the four main magnet rare earths: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme because it indicates progress toward diversifying rare earth supply outside China.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
The United States, Denmark and Greenland have entered into an agreement for the US to develop a significant military presence on Greenland, while prohibiting US adversaries from building bases there, according to Donald Trump. The agreement has no expiry date and grants the US permanent access, basing and overflight rights, and would continue to apply if Greenland becomes independent. The extent of the agreement remains unclear, including whether new US bases would be constructed.
Why it matters: This bears directly on Arctic security, as the agreement reshapes US military access and excludes adversaries from Greenland.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry