Value chains & chokepoints
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India would remain practical in sourcing crude oil and keep national interests paramount after the US enacted a law allowing tariffs of up to 100 per cent on major buyers of Russian energy. She said energy security would be the government’s primary consideration, citing refinery compatibility and limited global supply, and added that foreign investors remained confident in India.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because India’s crude-sourcing decisions are shaped by refinery compatibility and global supply constraints, not only by the US tariff threat.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
On 21 September 2026, Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam spoke by phone with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who reaffirmed the UK's commitment to return the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius and to work with the United States to enable ratification of the agreement signed on 22 May 2025. Ratification had been suspended in the British Parliament after US President Donald Trump called the agreement an "act of great stupidity" in April. The Mauritian and British foreign ministers are expected to meet on the margins of the UN General Assembly.
Why it matters: This matters for the geoeconomics of the Indian Ocean, where the Chagos handover and the Diego Garcia base remain tied to US-UK strategic interests.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
On 22 September 2026, Malagasy justice began hearing the case of about thirty suspects in the affair of five Boeing 777-200 aircraft registered in Madagascar and found in Iran in July 2025. The planes were supposed to remain in Madagascar but, according to local media, transited through Cambodia and Afghanistan before landing in Tehran, where they joined the fleet of Mahan Air. The defendants appear for forgery and use of forgery.
Why it matters: The case illustrates the briefing theme of corruption, involving forged aviation documents and a suspect close to former president Andry Rajoelina.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Lohum plans to buy nickel mines in Indonesia and the Philippines to raise production to 10,000 metric tons a year within 18 months. It seeks $105 million in equity and 20 billion rupees in debt. The company is also pursuing lithium in Zimbabwe and other battery-material projects.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of China reliance as India works to develop its own critical minerals supply chain.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
ENISA's Threat Landscape 2026 warns that Chinese state-linked hackers are conducting sustained cyberespionage campaigns against maritime organisations across Europe. Mustang Panda, also known as Earth Preta, ran continuous campaigns against maritime-related organisations in at least seven EU member states, primarily for cyberespionage and strategic intelligence collection. Transport accounted for 8% of all EU cyber events recorded by ENISA, with water transport making up 16.4% of transport-sector incidents.
Why it matters: For the briefing's cyberespionage theme, the ENISA report shows Chinese state-linked groups treating European shipping as a persistent intelligence target.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Global Lithium Resources formally approved a fully cash acquisition offer of A$333 million from Titan Australia Mining, a subsidiary of UAE-based Titan Lithium. Titan Lithium will provide a loan facility of A$120 million for the Manna lithium project in Western Australia. The deal is subject to board and shareholder approval, with a meeting scheduled for December 2026.
Why it matters: The deal underscores the UAE's expanding role in critical minerals supply chains for the energy transition.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West crude pipeline after a nine-day shutdown caused by drone attacks, restoring a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline was initially running at a low rate, with Saudi Aramco seeking to restore flows to about 4 million barrels per day. Brent crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel on the restart.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because the restart eases but does not resolve the region's limited bypass capacity, leaving most Gulf exports without an evacuation route during a sustained Hormuz closure.
chokepoint infrastructure · chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
China rejects US sanctions and pressure on Iran but is directly affected by continued disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as the world's largest oil importer. Beijing is pursuing two parallel tracks: opposing unilateral sanctions and military pressure while calling for resumed negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It opposed US sanctions on Iranian airlines and voted against a UN Security Council resolution on Iran sanctions monitoring on 17 September.
Why it matters: This bears on the briefing theme of energy security, because China's reliance on Gulf oil transit makes the Strait of Hormuz a central variable in its position on the US-Iran war.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
European and Asian gas prices are trading above coal on a delivered basis, bringing coal back into the merit order. A Chinese mine safety crackdown after fatal accidents has cut coking coal output and lifted Australian premium low-vol coking coal prices by more than $60/t since late July to nearly $280/t. Naval attacks in the Black Sea have closed a route that carried 13% of Russia’s seaborne coal exports in 2025, forcing rerouting via the Baltic.
Why it matters: For the energy-markets theme, the convergence of gas pricing, mining-safety and shipping shocks shows how simultaneous supply-side disruptions can reset a commodity's seasonal price ceiling.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Euro zone bond yields fell for a second day, with Germany's 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 3.44%. The decline followed Iran's suggestion that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and a US signal of openness to talks with Tehran, which pushed oil prices lower. Brent crude futures were last down 1% to $100 a barrel.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy prices theme, as the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is lowering oil prices and thereby reducing inflation expectations and bond yields.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
France has begun drafting a UN Security Council resolution with the United States to establish an international mission to restore movement in the Strait of Hormuz. The move follows talks between Presidents Macron and Trump, and Paris hopes to circulate a draft soon. Previous efforts failed due to opposition from China and Russia, but surging oil prices and Houthi advances have raised hopes for compromise.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, as the resolution seeks to protect commercial shipping through a critical oil chokepoint.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
On September 22, Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Force, said his forces had disabled 300 vessels supporting Russia since the campaign began on July 6, with 134 hit in the Sea of Azov and 166 in the Black Sea. Most targets were tankers or dry bulk carriers. Russia has increased its own attacks on Ukrainian ports and has diverted grain shipments to Baltic and Arctic terminals, while Ukraine has sought alternate routes and grain exports have fallen.
Why it matters: The strikes show how attacks on commercial shipping are reshaping grain and energy trade routes in the Black Sea region.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
In the Guns for Hire podcast, Alia Brahimi and Ibrahim Jalal discuss a major military escalation along the Red Sea coast and Houthi tactics. They examine Iran's attempt to create a two-strait crisis before the US midterm elections, and mercenary recruitment networks linked to Russia and Iran that may source Yemeni fighters for Russia in Ukraine in exchange for intelligence sharing. The episode also covers Houthi co-optation of humanitarian aid and links to Iraqi PMF militias trained by Yemenis to bring down drones.
Why it matters: This matters for geoeconomics because the Houthi's recruitment of Yemeni fighters for Russia in exchange for intelligence sharing ties regional conflict to global labor and security markets.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Uzbekistan has signed an agreement with Georgian officials to establish warehousing and transport facilities at the Black Sea port of Poti, with a feasibility study planned. The presidential statement also outlined plans for involvement in Caspian port infrastructure and the Georgian port of Anaklia, while noting that financing remains an open question. Additionally, officials aim to digitalize freight transport to reduce the shadow economy, which exceeds 42 percent.
Why it matters: This matters for the Middle Corridor theme: Uzbekistan's plans to expand its role depend on unresolved financing and coordination across multiple states.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Bangladesh is negotiating a short-term contract to import 10 LNG cargoes annually from Algeria, following disruption of Qatari supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal was discussed on 10 September 2026 between the two countries' energy ministers. Experts describe the deal as a historic opportunity but say Algeria lacks surplus production capacity to export outside Europe.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, because it shows how geopolitical disruptions are pushing Asian importers to seek alternative LNG suppliers.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Yadea will supply electric two-wheelers to Spiro for integration into Spiro's battery-swap network, and the companies will jointly develop two-wheeler platforms for local conditions. Spiro operates in seven African countries and reports more than 100,000 EVs and 2,500 battery-swap stations. The partners have not disclosed specific volumes or a timeline.
Why it matters: The partnership is a geoeconomics case of Chinese manufacturing and capital meeting African market infrastructure.
green tech supply chain
On 21 September, Malawi's Mines Minister Thoko Tembo met a World Bank delegation to discuss developing the country's critical minerals sector. The meeting was tied to the planned launch of the Energy Transition Minerals Roadmap, which requires about $5 billion in investment. The World Bank estimates critical minerals projects could generate more than $30 billion in exports between 2026 and 2040.
Why it matters: This matters for the critical minerals theme because it shows a World Bank-backed roadmap linking Malawi's mineral potential to investment needs and projected export gains.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Resolute Mining cut its 2026 production guidance for the Syama gold mine in Mali by about a quarter. Supply disruptions and mining constraints are restricting access to higher-grade ore.
Why it matters: This matters for the mining theme because operational disruptions in Mali directly reduce gold production guidance.
supply chain risk
The ACE consortium has selected Ciena to modernize the submarine cable linking Africa to Europe, increasing capacity to more than 30 Tb/s. The upgrade will use existing infrastructure without replacing the submarine cable. ACE was extended to South Africa in 2021, bringing its length to 17,000 km and connecting 20 countries.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of digital infrastructure, as it shows both capacity expansion and persistent vulnerability of submarine cables in Africa.
chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu called for a new continental dynamic to end the exploitation of Africa's mineral resources.
Why it matters: This underscores the briefing's theme of critical minerals and African agency over mineral resources.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
Americas
Iran has reportedly offered to unblock the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for initial U.S. steps to ease military pressure, according to Kyodo News. The proposal was conveyed to Washington through mediators, and Iran is calling for talks on a permanent resolution. Brent crude futures fell below $100 a barrel after the report.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy theme because a potential reopening of Hormuz would ease concerns about oil supply and inflationary pressure.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Washington on September 24, his first since 2015, with both leaders seeking to stabilize the bilateral relationship. The visit is expected to be heavy on optics and light on substantive progress, building on the trade truce agreed at Busan in October 2025. The United States seeks continued rare earth shipments, agricultural purchases, and support on Iran, while China aims to highlight its equal status and the necessity of the Xi-Trump relationship.
Why it matters: This matters because the visit is an attempt to build strategic stability through personal diplomacy, with the trade truce as its main concrete foundation.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
The Trump-Xi summit beginning in the United States on September 24 will again focus on trade, technology, and Taiwan. The one-year trade pact from Busan is up for renewal, and both sides are likely to want its continuation. On September 20, the two countries mooted the idea of a 'hotline' to notify each other over AI national security risks.
Why it matters: The summit's focus on technology, particularly AI, underscores that technological competition remains a central theme in U.S.-China relations.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
At the UN General Assembly, President Trump called for the complete economic isolation of Iran and said he expected a deal after the US midterm elections. A senior Iranian official said Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf shipping within seven days if the US eased military pressure and lifted a blockade on Iranian ports. No face-to-face meetings between the two countries have taken place since July.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of energy security, given the Strait of Hormuz's role as a conduit for a fifth of global oil and gas shipments.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay urging leading labs to slow AI capability gains, and OpenAI and Elon Musk endorsed it. Trump dismissed AI catastrophe fears as a hoax and said China benefits from the backlash. The exchange precedes Xi Jinping's Washington visit, with the administration weighing tighter controls on Chinese AI.
Why it matters: It matters for the US-China competition theme because domestic pressure to slow AI gives Washington an incentive to restrict Chinese access to chips and models rather than slow American labs.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry