Three shocks are resetting coal’s winter ceiling
European and Asian gas prices are trading above coal on a delivered basis, bringing coal back into the merit order. A Chinese mine safety crackdown after fatal accidents has cut coking coal output and lifted Australian premium low-vol coking coal prices by more than $60/t since late July to nearly $280/t. Naval attacks in the Black Sea have closed a route that carried 13% of Russia’s seaborne coal exports in 2025, forcing rerouting via the Baltic.
Why it matters: For the energy-markets theme, the convergence of gas pricing, mining-safety and shipping shocks shows how simultaneous supply-side disruptions can reset a commodity's seasonal price ceiling.