Value chains & chokepoints
India imported an all-time high 155.25 billion cubic feet of LNG from the US in H1 2026, averaging 25.88 BCF per month, up from 132.95 BCF in H1 2024. The West Asia conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected roughly 50 per cent of India's domestic requirement. The US became India's largest LNG supplier during May-July 2026, while imports from Qatar declined 91 per cent year-on-year.
Why it matters: This shift underscores the theme of energy security, as the Strait of Hormuz closure forces India to diversify its LNG suppliers.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
At their September 25 summit, Trump and Xi discussed the Middle East war. Iran pressed Washington to accept a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting. Xi urged a return to the June framework agreement, and Trump received assurances that China would not support Iran.
Why it matters: This bears on the geoeconomics theme of energy chokepoints, since the Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil shipping lane.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Iran announced on Friday that it had presented the United States a plan to end the conflict that has lasted about seven months. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said from the UN that Iran presented a concrete seven-day plan and that the decision now rests with Washington, with the period starting once the US accepts it. Araghchi met with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but the talks yielded no progress.
Why it matters: This proposal directly touches the briefing's energy-security theme, since the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is conditioned on US acceptance.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
Qatar has increased LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to its highest level in more than two months, with at least four laden carriers departing and two entering the Persian Gulf in the past week. One shipment arrived on India's west coast. Traffic remains far below pre-war levels, but the increase comes as European and Asian gas prices have surged to their highest since 2022.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, as Qatar's increased LNG traffic through Hormuz aims to ease a global supply crunch despite ongoing risks.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The article warns of a possible major war over a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan and argues that the world’s leading democracies need a formidable alliance to deter China. It proposes the D7 group as a possible starting point for such an alliance.
Why it matters: This matters for deterrence: the article argues that a united global alliance of democracies is needed to deter China from using force against Taiwan.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Beijing has for nearly a year avoided the large-scale military exercises that had become a regular feature of its coercion of Taiwan, a shift stemming in large part from renewed optimism in Beijing. The article identifies 2028, when the United States and Taiwan hold presidential elections, as the next pivotal date. Xi Jinping’s hopes rest on KMT chair Cheng Li-wun, whose prospects are precarious.
Why it matters: This matters for the cross-strait dynamic because the article argues Washington should act before 2028 to avoid a more turbulent period in the Taiwan Strait.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran had proposed a seven-day plan to the United States via Qatar to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if conditions are met. The plan reportedly includes a seven-day cessation of hostilities, release of frozen Iranian assets, lifting oil sanctions, and ending the US naval blockade. A Revolutionary Guards spokesman said ending hostilities in Yemen was also among Tehran's demands.
Why it matters: This bears directly on the briefing's theme of energy security and maritime chokepoints.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
Also reported by: Middle East Eye, South China Morning Post
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks in seven days if the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include Lebanon. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi detailed the proposal in a private gathering on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, according to one attendee. The proposal strongly resembles a June memorandum of understanding but with an accelerated timetable.
Why it matters: The proposal directly engages the briefing's theme of energy security, as control of the Strait of Hormuz affects global oil flows.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Mint (Livemint)
Yemen’s internationally recognized government pressed world leaders at the UN for help, saying Houthi rebels’ seizure of the port city of Mokha and Red Sea islands threatens the global economy. The rebels’ new position gives them better surveillance of ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which about 12% of world trade passes. Yemeni Vice President Abdullah Abdulkader al Alimi-Bawzer urged world leaders not to trust Houthi assurances and to keep weapons and technology from the rebels.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of maritime chokepoints, as the Houthi advance threatens a strait through which about 12% of world trade passes.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
A first cargo of about 32,800 metric tons of gasoline, shipped on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Avanti, was unloaded at Syria's Baniyas refinery and loaded onto trucks for Iraq. A Syrian oil official said 77 tanker trucks had left Baniyas for the Iraqi border and further shipments were expected. The operation is carried out under a transit contract between Syria's SPC and Qatar's UCC Holding, and Iraq's SOMO signed a contract with the Qatari company to supply improved gasoline via Baniyas.
Why it matters: The establishment of a two-way energy corridor through Syria shows how regional fuel trade routes are being reconfigured after the disruption of Gulf shipping.
chokepoint maritime · chokepoint infrastructure
Sub-Saharan Africa
Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah told foreign investors at an Invest Africa event that they must build local processing plants or look elsewhere, and that local partnership is being put into law. Namibia has required 15% local ownership for new mining licenses since 2021. She cited unemployment above 40% and said young Africans are currently pushed out by continental conditions.
Why it matters: This underscores the critical-minerals theme: African producers are using demand leverage to force local processing and capture more of the value chain.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
At the UN General Assembly, African countries are seeking deals, particularly for critical minerals, to build resilience through partnerships. Mineral-rich nations are converging around a push to pivot from exporting raw materials to local processing to add value and jobs. The approach extends to public health, finance, and energy, including a proposed Dangote refinery in Lamu.
Why it matters: This matters for the resilience theme: African policymakers are seeking to untether their economies from commodity cycles and external dependence through regional partnerships and local processing.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Kenya will double its imports of Ethiopian electricity under an existing 25-year power purchase agreement. It paid KSh14.09bn ($108.8m) to Ethiopia through June 2026. The move responds to mounting domestic grid pressures.
Why it matters: It speaks directly to the briefing's theme of energy.
supply chain risk
Rainbow Rare Earths has signed a memorandum of understanding with Neo Performance Materials covering technical support, design input and offtake for its Phalaborwa project in South Africa. Neo will provide technical support and design input for the final solvent extraction separation circuit, which is expected to produce separated neodymium-praseodymium oxide and a mixed heavy rare earth carbonate. Under the MoU, Neo will receive rights to 40% of annual separated neodymium-praseodymium oxide output and 65% of annual mixed SEG+ carbonate production, with pricing on arms-length commercial terms.
Why it matters: The agreement strengthens critical-minerals supply chains by securing rare earth separation and offtake arrangements outside China.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Also reported by: The Northern Miner
Americas
A senior Iranian official said Iran will show no flexibility over its nuclear program even if the United States accepts its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official said the waterway would remain closed until all of Iran's conditions are met, and that Iran would give no concessions on enriching uranium or shipping highly enriched uranium out of the country. Tehran has said it would engage in detailed nuclear negotiations only after its conditions are met.
Why it matters: The statement reinforces the nuclear program theme by showing that Iran's enrichment and HEU stockpile remain non-negotiable, complicating any deal to end the conflict.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Middle East Eye
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said Sept. 24 that India will continue product exports and honor its export commitments despite geopolitical tensions. India’s petroleum product exports fell 40% year over year to 2.7 million metric tons in August. The statement comes amid US deliberations on restricting diesel exports and concerns over tight global supplies.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because India’s commitment to maintain exports helps offset potential supply disruptions from US diesel export restrictions and Middle East tensions.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
At UNGA, Latin American delegations met with US officials amid economic and security announcements, including the Andes-Atlantic Corridor and up to seven billion dollars in Export-Import Bank financing. Venezuela's interim government held a first in-person meeting between Delcy Rodríguez and Trump. Fifteen governments signed a Shield of the Americas statement and agreed to coordinate measures on twenty-four criminal and armed organizations.
Why it matters: This matters for geoeconomics because the United States is using financing, investment, and security coordination to reassert influence in Latin America.
critical minerals · chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
A US official said Washington held constructive discussions with Iran through mediators and continues to discuss nuclear issues. This follows Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's announcement that Iran presented a concrete seven-day plan to the US via Qatar, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz if conditions are met. The plan reportedly includes a seven-day halt to hostilities in the Middle East, release of frozen Iranian assets worth about $12 billion, lifting oil sanctions, and ending the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Why it matters: The exchange underscores the theme of maritime chokepoints, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is made conditional on sanctions relief and a regional truce.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry