The Coming Taiwan Crisis
Beijing has for nearly a year avoided the large-scale military exercises that had become a regular feature of its coercion of Taiwan, a shift stemming in large part from renewed optimism in Beijing. The article identifies 2028, when the United States and Taiwan hold presidential elections, as the next pivotal date. Xi Jinping’s hopes rest on KMT chair Cheng Li-wun, whose prospects are precarious.
Why it matters: This matters for the cross-strait dynamic because the article argues Washington should act before 2028 to avoid a more turbulent period in the Taiwan Strait.