The day's items converge on energy security as states absorb market and security risk: Japan extends sovereign-backed marine insurance to LNG and refined products, Turkey plans to take Russian diesel under a US deal, and Nigeria's finance minister rules out a return to petrol subsidies. They pull against each other where Washington waives Russia-related sanctions and tariffs while European allies refuse secondary sanctions on China and India, and where Iran conditions reopening the Strait of Hormuz on US acceptance. Across Asia-Pacific, Europe, Eurasia and MENA, and Sub-Saharan Africa, chokepoint access, sanctions relief and fuel pricing are being used as bargaining instruments rather than settled rules.
Value chains & chokepoints
US President Donald Trump defended his decision to waive key provisions of recent sanctions on Russia, saying in an executive order that the waiver was in the US national interest. The order waived requirements to raise duties on Russian goods by up to 500 per cent and to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on China, India and other buyers of Russian energy, and followed a decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel. Trump also criticised President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Ukrainian drones struck a major oil terminal and other targets in St Petersburg after an energy ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow collapsed.
Why it matters: The waiver shows sanctions being used as a bargaining instrument in the Russia-Ukraine war, with energy-market effects central to the decision.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy, Semafor (Africa / Gulf newsletters)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio headed to Central and South Asia on Oct 17 to boost commercial ties and gain an edge over Russia and China, leading a delegation of 200 business leaders to Uzbekistan. On Oct 19 he will take part in a C5+1 ministerial meeting in Samarkand with ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After Uzbekistan he will visit Mumbai and Jamnagar in India, where a senior US official said Washington was “very close” to a trade deal.
Why it matters: The trip illustrates geoeconomics in practice, as Washington uses commercial diplomacy and energy and minerals deals to counter Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia while pursuing a trade agreement with India.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English)
The US said the waiver of sanctions on Russia and tariffs on other countries, including India, was a 60-day pause to analyse the global impact of the measure. Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent said the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act granted the President the flexibility to assess the situation. Bessent said the US had asked its European allies to impose secondary sanctions on China and India for buying Russian oil, but they refused.
Why it matters: The waiver bears on sanctions coordination and energy security, as Washington weighs secondary measures while European allies decline to target Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed holding a trilateral summit next month with US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine on terms set by Moscow. A senior US official said Trump has not yet agreed to the meeting, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Putin raised the idea in a telephone call with Trump on 9 October, citing a former Russian intelligence officer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper that discussions were ongoing and that the three parties acknowledged the hypothetical possibility of the meeting, though no clear agenda exists yet; the plan also envisages a side trade agreement under which Washington would buy Russian diesel fuel.
Why it matters: The proposal makes great-power diplomacy among Washington, Moscow and Beijing the venue for deciding the war's settlement, setting aside Ukraine's own representation and unsettling Kyiv and its European allies.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The IAEA’s Nuclear Technology Review 2026 states that uranium production from existing mines is forecast to decrease by at least 50 per cent by 2040, while global uranium requirements could increase by 50 to 144 per cent by 2050. It says new mines and expansions or reopenings will be required for future supply assurance, and that developing a new uranium mine typically takes 10 to 15 years. The report also flags insufficient conversion capacity and unevenly distributed enrichment capacity in the global nuclear fuel supply chain.
Why it matters: The projected gap between uranium demand and mine output makes fuel supply security a constraint on nuclear expansion, a central energy security concern.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
Two Singapore-registered container ships, GFS Pride and GFS Giselle, were attacked this week; GFS Pride sank after being struck by a projectile and catching fire, and GFS Giselle was damaged, with crew members from both vessels reported safe. Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 131 in the week ended Oct. 14 from 176 the previous week, according to Kpler, though the decline cannot be attributed solely to the latest incidents. Maritime experts said commercial vessels are likely to continue transiting the strait because demand for Middle Eastern energy and commercial incentives persist, even as major container lines largely stay away.
Why it matters: The continued transits despite attacks illustrate how commercial incentives and energy demand can sustain activity at maritime chokepoints even when security risks rise.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The U.S. government pledged $17 million to digitize terminal operations at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port, with the project to develop the Maritime Single Window and Port Community System in partnership with the Sri Lanka Ports Authority. On the same day, state-owned China Merchants Port Holdings announced it would abandon a $350 million investment in a logistics hub at the port. The port authority agreed to pay $22 million to settle termination of that agreement.
Why it matters: The contrast between United States digitalization funding and China Merchants Port's withdrawal bears on the theme of US-China competition over port infrastructure and supply-chain influence in South Asia.
chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
Japan's Special Envoy for the Middle East Peace Process, Tsukasa Uemura, said Riyadh and Tokyo cooperate across Saudi Vision 2030, energy security, maritime safety and efforts to preserve regional stability and prosperity. He described the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal as vital waterways for international trade and warned that any disruption would have repercussions far beyond the region. Uemura also cited Japan's crude oil storage cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and said Tokyo is considering financial assistance for Asian countries affected by the Gulf crisis.
Why it matters: The remarks tie energy security and maritime security to Japan's Gulf diplomacy, linking crude storage arrangements and chokepoint risk to regional stability.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Premier Li Qiang told President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on Saturday that Beijing was ready to strengthen strategic communication and expand mutually beneficial cooperation with Uzbekistan. He urged the two countries to step up cooperation in energy, minerals, finance and connectivity, and to deepen collaboration in fields such as AI and aerospace, according to state news agency Xinhua.
Why it matters: The visit sits within the briefing's theme of great-power competition for influence in Central Asia, where the source title frames China's outreach as a tussle with the United States.
critical minerals · great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
Japan's Cabinet approved on Oct. 13 a bill under which the government will provide protection and indemnity cover and partially compensate cargo and hull insurance payments for the transport of crude oil, oil products and LNG, a METI official said. The bill is one of three approved to enhance the security of Japan's crude oil supply amid the conflict in the Middle East. The official said the scope of the specified tanker act will be expanded from crude oil to petroleum products such as naphtha and LNG, and that METI will introduce similar support for hull and cargo insurance, including a program to compensate non-life insurers for marine property insurance claims where reinsurance provision is prohibited.
Why it matters: The extension of sovereign-backed marine insurance to LNG and refined products makes energy security dependent on state risk-bearing when commercial reinsurance is unavailable.
geostrategy military basing · supply chain risk
China is running simultaneous next-generation attack-submarine programs across at least two yards, with satellite imagery placing the Type 095 at the Bohai shipyard in Huludao in February 2026 and a separate unnamed vessel of roughly 120 meters surfacing at Jiangnan Shipyard near Shanghai that June. The article reports that Chinese unmanned underwater vehicles deployed under International Seabed Authority designations spent only about 6% of their time in designated zones, and that most were tied to state companies; it links such activity to seabed mapping, undersea cable networks and data collection near Guam. It further describes military-civil fusion across research vessels, cargo fleets, fishing boats and drones, and anchor dragging as a form of deep-sea sabotage associated with Russia and China.
Why it matters: The developments illustrate a gray-zone maritime strategy in which military-civil fusion and undersea infrastructure are used as coercive instruments below the threshold of open war.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
The Saudi-led coalition said an AH-6i reconnaissance helicopter crashed in Najran due to a technical malfunction, killing both crew members, and rejected a Houthi claim that the group had shot down a Saudi Apache helicopter near Najran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two supertankers struck naval mines on Saturday, triggering fires, and said the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to vessels without Iranian authorisation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had submitted a seven-day proposal through Qatar to reopen the strait if conditions were met, while U.S. Central Command said 97% of vessels attempting to cross had done so without being struck by Iranian projectiles.
Why it matters: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the tanker attacks place energy security at the centre of the widening Iran war, with consequences for regional oil and gas shipments.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Tehran's proposal to the United States on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table, and called on Washington to accept Iran's conditions as a prelude to resuming talks between the two countries. According to Iranian media, the proposal would allow the strait to reopen within six days of US acceptance of the conditions set by Tehran, with negotiations resuming on the seventh day. Araghchi did not give details of the Iranian conditions, and the statement contained no American response to the proposal.
Why it matters: By keeping the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz conditional on US acceptance of undisclosed terms, Tehran links freedom of navigation and energy security to the wider de-escalation negotiations with Washington.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: مضيق هرمز الملاحة
Turkey’s energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, said Turkey will take some of the diesel Russia is supplying to global markets under its agreement with US President Donald Trump. He said the US-Russia diesel supply deal was important for Turkey’s energy security, and the deal was criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, European officials and some Republican politicians. Bayraktar also said Turkey plans to bring a second floating gas production platform online in the first quarter of 2028, bringing Black Sea daily output to 45 million cubic meters.
Why it matters: The arrangement bears on energy security, as Turkey balances Russian supply, US deals and domestic gas expansion.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Yemeni government forces continued operations against the Houthi group on the Taiz fronts and began offensive operations to clear remaining Houthi forces at Bab al-Mandeb, as Operation Dawn of Yemen entered its 14th day, with airstrikes and ground clashes also reported in Lahj, Marib and Al-Jawf. Military statements said government forces and the Popular Resistance repelled attacks near Taiz and that 100 Houthi members were killed and 190 wounded in fighting on Saturday. The Yemeni Armed Forces said they conducted 1,417 targeting operations in the past 24 hours and that around 800 militants were killed and wounded, with more than 190 vehicles destroyed or damaged.
Why it matters: The fighting bears on maritime security because the Bab al-Mandeb front lies near a strait the text identifies as a vital corridor for international navigation.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
On Sunday the Saudi-led coalition and the Iran-backed Houthis traded strikes, with the coalition launching repeated air raids on Houthi-controlled regions of Yemen and a Houthi projectile injuring at least six people in Najran, according to the kingdom's civil defence agency. The Houthis' Saba news agency reported that an alleged Saudi airstrike in Saada governorate killed at least nine people and wounded 16, while the coalition said two pilots were killed in a helicopter crash in Najran that it blamed on a technical malfunction. Egypt's parliament postponed to Monday a vote on President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's request to authorise military support for Saudi Arabia.
Why it matters: The exchange bears on energy security because the text reports disruption in the world's top crude oil exporter and threats to shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The Central Bank of Iraq raised the official dollar selling rate from 1,320 to 1,520 dinars on October 7, a devaluation of about 15 per cent. Residents warned of rising living costs while economists argued the move could help protect public finances amid a sharp fall in oil revenue. In Erbil, the dollar was selling for about 166,350 dinars per $100 this week, around nine per cent above the official rate, after exchange shops quoted prices as high as 180,000 dinars per $100 following the announcement.
Why it matters: The devaluation illustrates the trade-off between protecting public finances and shielding households from rising consumer prices.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Zambia, Egypt, Malawi and Mauritania are among the first eight countries selected for a World Bank Group initiative targeting $19bn in metals and minerals financing and private capital mobilisation through 2030. World Bank President Ajay Banga announced the target on October 16 at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok; the target combines World Bank Group financing with private capital mobilisation rather than representing new lending commitments. The four African countries joined Argentina, Bolivia, India and Kazakhstan in launching the first partnerships and country compacts on October 16, which identify priorities for regulatory reform, infrastructure and investment rather than approved financing packages.
Why it matters: The initiative ties development finance and private-capital mobilisation to critical minerals processing, a central theme in the competition to diversify strategic supply chains.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Government drone strikes in northern Tigray pushed back Eritrean forces and Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters, leaving burned trucks along roads in and around Adigrat, about 40 kilometres south of the Eritrean border. This month the two neighbours severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing Tigray forces, and according to a security source thousands of Eritrean soldiers crossed the border in early October to support the front's fighters. The Ethiopian government announced a six-month transitional administration in Tigray as a preliminary step toward holding elections in the region.
Why it matters: The drone campaign and the rupture in Ethiopian-Eritrean relations place the conflict and security theme at the centre of the Horn of Africa's shifting alignments.
geostrategy military basing
Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, which close on Sunday 18 October in Bangkok, Nigerian finance minister Taiwo Oyedele said there would be no return to subsidies on petrol imports or to multiple exchange rates. He acknowledged that the recent cut in petrol prices at stations of the state oil company NNPC had created confusion and raised questions among investors, rating agencies and multilateral institutions, and said the federal state had spent nothing on the measure, with NNPC network stations selling at cost price for an initial 30 days. An IMF official had warned on Wednesday 14 October against reinstating the subsidies, which were removed in May 2023 shortly after President Bola Tinubu took office.
Why it matters: The decision bears on the briefing's energy-subsidy and fiscal-policy theme, since it fixes the Nigerian government's position on fuel pricing ahead of the 2027 elections and against IMF advice.
supply chain risk
Eight Nigerian soldiers were killed on Saturday 17 October when their vehicle struck a mine planted by jihadists in Borno State, near the border with Cameroon. The device, placed on the road, was reportedly detonated remotely, apparently with a detonating cord, and the explosion occurred close to the village of Kinuba. The soldiers were inspecting work by anti-jihadist militias clearing brush along the access road to the town of Gamboru; the blast was attributed to Iswap, the Islamic State in West Africa, an offshoot of Boko Haram.
Why it matters: The incident belongs to the briefing's security and conflict theme: jihadist groups continue to target military movement along the Cameroon border, where brush provides cover for ambushes.
geostrategy military basing
Five civil society leaders arrested in Bangui ahead of a press conference after the 12 October "ville morte" operation against fuel price rises remain in police custody. In a statement read on national television on the evening of Saturday 17 October, the public prosecutor announced an investigation into civil society organisations, accusing them of seeking to disturb public order and incite civil disobedience. Their lawyers say they were prevented from visiting the detainees, and civil society organisations have given the authorities until the afternoon of Monday 19 October to release them, threatening a nationwide "ville morte" otherwise.
Why it matters: The standoff bears on the theme of civil unrest, showing how a government fuel-price increase has produced a general strike, arrests and a prosecutor's inquiry into civil society in one of the world's poorest countries.
supply chain risk
Americas
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Sunday that Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remains on the table. Iran presented the proposal in mid-September after an interim ceasefire collapsed, and its conditions include lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, lifting US sanctions on oil exports and ending hostilities on all regional fronts. Araghchi said the strait could reopen within six days if Washington accepts the conditions, while the US has insisted on addressing Iran's nuclear program from the outset.
Why it matters: The stalled proposal bears on energy security because the Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of global oil and LNG trade before the war.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor, Bing News: "Strait of Hormuz", The Straits Times, gCaptain
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs that Trump waived a day earlier. Trump said he has not announced a final decision, and the Friday executive order waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act did not specify how long the waiver would last. The measures, including tariffs on Russian goods and penalties on countries buying Russian oil and gas, had been due to take effect next week.
Why it matters: This bears on the sanctions theme: Washington is weighing the economic impact of Russia-related measures before they take effect.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Bing News: sanctions Russia energy
On Oct 18 the Kremlin said Ukrainian large-scale attacks on Russian cities would not change its war aims, as Ukraine struck Saint Petersburg in what Russian state media called the largest attack on the city since the start of the 2022 war. Saint Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov said one person was killed and five hospitalised, and that authorities fought fires at an oil terminal, an oil depot and industrial warehouses; flights were restricted at Pulkovo airport. Leningrad region governor Alexander Drozdenko said air defence shot down 144 Ukrainian drones, while Zelensky accused Moscow of violating an “energy ceasefire” announced by US leader Donald Trump 76 times.
Why it matters: The exchange bears on the Russia-Ukraine war and energy security, since the reported targets include an oil refinery and depot.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would not sign a document imposing additional measures on Russia at present, arguing that doing so could undermine negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He said his decision to exempt Russian exports from sanctions and tariffs was an attempt to keep Russia at the negotiating table, and described his decision on Russia as "very simple". Trump also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and diesel refineries, saying the strikes harm global diesel markets, including in the United States.
Why it matters: It matters for the briefing's sanctions theme because the delay of congressionally approved measures and the exemption for Russian diesel bear directly on the use of economic restrictions as leverage in the war.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
China is considering export controls that could check the global spread of its AI models and chips, as Beijing increases oversight of its tech sector. A former Biden administration adviser wrote that the new rules could shape the evolution of the Chinese AI ecosystem, while questions remain over compliance and whether the rules would increase Beijing’s leverage without slowing the technology’s global adoption. The text also notes that conservative group Humans First is calling for export controls on US tech as part of an “America First AI Policy” platform.
Why it matters: The consideration of Chinese export controls and the competing US proposal bear on geoeconomics, since they concern state restrictions on the cross-border diffusion of AI models and chips.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
A Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2612, closed to roughly 5km of the Finnish-built ICEYE-X36 radar satellite on October 17, a manoeuvre tracked by LeoLabs as an apparent deliberate approach with unclear intent. SpaceX imposed an unannounced speed cap on Ukraine's military Starshield terminals overnight on October 13-14, disrupting attack and air-defence drone missions, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on October 17 that service had not been fully restored. Russia is developing the Rassvet low-orbit network, which Ukrainian adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov called "danger No. 1" among technological challenges and which is intended to offer round-the-clock broadband in 2027.
Why it matters: The episode places satellite access and reconnaissance within the briefing's military technology theme, where commercial space assets directly shape battlefield capability.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry