Export controls and critical-minerals policy are converging across Asia-Pacific and Europe, as Beijing proposes new controls and the European Parliament strengthens the Critical Raw Materials Act, while Japan's rare earth access remains a concern. In the Americas, a Russian diesel shipment to the United States and sanctions pressure on Cuba show energy trade being used as a bargaining instrument. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana's planned raw-ore export ban and COMESA's value-addition agenda pull toward domestic processing, even as Gulf and Black Sea shipping risks raise costs for energy and food flows.
Value chains & chokepoints
Beijing proposed a raft of export controls on AI-related technologies, solar-related technologies and machinery, while concern continued over Japan's rare earth access. The episode covered reactions to strong Q3 GDP numbers in the PRC, continued stock market struggles, questions about GDP targets and speculation about next week's Fifth Plenum. It also addressed EU signals of willingness to continue protectionist measures in new sectors, a report on new US-China investment deals, a potential Putin-Xi-Trump summit, sanctions on China's version of Y Combinator and a Politico report on OpenAI's restrained export control lobbying.
Why it matters: The proposed controls and the chip-policy discussion make export controls a central instrument in US-China technology competition.
sanctions export controls · critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts global lithium demand will reach about 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2050, up from 2.11 million tonnes in 2026, with 76% of 2050 demand driven by electric vehicles. At an average mine size of 36,000 tonnes LCE, the forecast growth is equivalent to the output of 134 new mines, or a new mine every two months for the next 24 years, with 44 of those mines needed to meet demand growth between 2040 and 2050. Benchmark estimates meeting 2050 demand requires more than US$100 billion of investment before any contribution from recycling.
Why it matters: The forecast underscores the scale of critical minerals supply expansion required, with investment needing to be sustained through price cycles while competing with AI, defence and the wider energy transition.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Exercise Keen Sword began and runs until October 29, principally involving 45,000 Japanese and 12,000 US troops, with seven other Asian and European nations participating, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the Philippines for the first time; South Korea is attending as an observer. The exercise focuses on Japan’s southwestern islands and the Kuril Islands. Separately, Taiwan and the Philippines are deepening ties: Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration plans a training-ship port call in the Philippines in October next year, the first such visit since 1974, and the two sides intend to improve joint surveillance in the Bashi Channel.
Why it matters: The developments indicate that maritime security cooperation among Asian states is expanding in response to Chinese maritime expansion.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
A report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington says offshore wind infrastructure can support national security through dual-use surveillance and warning capabilities. It notes that subsea cables carrying roughly 95 per cent of the world’s internet traffic are vulnerable to disruption, and that drones, autonomous naval tools and unmanned underwater vehicles add to maritime security risks. The report concludes that consensus between governments and private developers on equipping turbines with surveillance, sensors and data-tracking tools could produce enhanced maritime domain awareness.
Why it matters: The report links offshore energy infrastructure to maritime security, a theme that treats dual-use surveillance and subsea cable resilience as elements of national security planning.
green tech supply chain · chokepoint infrastructure · geostrategy military basing
Governments across Global South countries are seeking public and private partners for connectivity, data centers, computing power, digital public infrastructure, AI models, skills and governance support. China remains distinct in its ability to operate across the entire AI ecosystem, while Gulf states offer cloud and compute, India open models and digital public infrastructure, and middle powers workforce and governance capacity. China launched the World AI Cooperation Organization with 29 founding members and Xi Jinping pledged 5,000 AI training slots over five years, while India's IndiaAI Mission, BharatGen, AI4Bharat and Sarvam AI focus on open datasets, multilingual models and locally relevant AI.
Why it matters: The shift from infrastructure financing to rule-setting makes AI governance in the Global South a site of competition among China, India and other partners.
great power rivalry · chokepoint infrastructure
Asia-Pacific
The European Parliament voted to strengthen the Critical Raw Materials Act, backing a dedicated EU agency and a €2 billion fund intended to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers of minerals essential to the clean energy, defense and digital transitions. The amendments were adopted by 470 votes to 83 with 108 abstentions and include a conditional export-control clause allowing the Commission to restrict exports of permanent-magnet scrap and waste. They also make the Commission responsible for identifying large companies in strategic sectors whose use of critical raw materials triggers resilience obligations.
Why it matters: The vote places critical raw materials and supply-chain resilience at the centre of EU industrial policy, linking mineral sourcing to security and trade diversification away from China.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The International Energy Agency reports that shipping crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia has risen above $37 per barrel, more than five times prewar levels. Middle East oil shipments averaged more than 24 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, exceeding the prewar average of 23.3 million barrels per day, supported by pipeline exports, short-haul tanker shuttles through Hormuz and offshore ship-to-ship transfers under U.S. military protection. The share of the region’s crude exports bypassing Hormuz rose from about 17% before the war to 40% by September, while approximately 30 attacks on vessels were reported in October.
Why it matters: The shift shows that energy security in the Gulf now depends on costlier and more fragile logistics even as export volumes recover.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The article argues that Taiwan's position in the first island chain should not be the main reason for American support of the island's security. It holds that policy should centre on preventing a PRC attack and on reputational, democratic and economic factors instead. It notes that senior officials and government strategy reports have stressed Taiwan's geographic location.
Why it matters: The article bears on the security theme by questioning whether geographic arguments strengthen or weaken deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
China and Djibouti said in a joint statement after their foreign ministers met in Beijing that all countries should enjoy freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, expressing concern about the deteriorating security situation. The statement, released early on Oct 22, stressed that merchant ships of all countries should have their navigation rights under international law respected and that the sovereignty, territorial integrity and wishes of Red Sea littoral states should be genuinely respected. It also said major powers outside the region should avoid resorting to force and unilateral sanctions, as the US State Department ordered some diplomats and family members to depart missions in Saudi Arabia after fighting in Yemen escalated.
Why it matters: The statement ties freedom of navigation in the Red Sea to maritime security and to the competing external military presence at Bab el-Mandeb.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor
CATL shares fell after it reported slower-than-expected profit growth amid intensifying domestic competition and EV price wars. The stock has nearly halved since May as investors weigh expiring tax carve-outs and a trend called “de-CATLization,” in which former customers such as Xiaomi and Li Auto source batteries from cheaper alternatives and plan to develop them in-house. CATL is also building more plants in Europe to avoid increasing EU protectionism.
Why it matters: The item bears on the briefing's China decoupling theme, with battery supply-chain dependence and EU protectionism shaping CATL's sourcing and plant decisions.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
At the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, economic policymakers discussed trade diversification amid shifts in trading patterns. The text argues that “deglobalization” is too simplistic and that a “rewiring of globalization” better describes supply-chain reconfiguration toward resilience, noting that global trade as a share of GDP rose to more than 68 percent in 2025 from around 60 percent in recent years. It also reports that trade and foreign direct investment have fragmented along geopolitical lines, with FDI to developed countries rising 43 percent year over year in 2025 while flows to developing countries fell 2 percent.
Why it matters: The article bears on the briefing's trade diversification theme by showing that supply-chain reconfiguration and geopolitical alignment, rather than deglobalization, are reshaping trade and investment flows.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
EU imports of liquefied natural gas fell 13.5% in the third quarter of 2026 to 20.38 million tonnes, from 23.54 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. The United States remained the largest supplier with 13.38 million tonnes, or 65.7% of total EU LNG imports, followed by Russia, Nigeria, Norway and Algeria. Qatar was absent from the list of largest exporters, having shipped no cargoes to the EU between May and September 2026 after declaring force majeure amid disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: The composition of EU LNG imports bears directly on European energy security, since a single supplier now accounts for close to two-thirds of the bloc's deliveries.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Crude and condensate flows from the Persian Gulf reached 24.6 million barrels a day in the week to Oct. 18, according to Kpler, while Vortexa put the same seven-day period at 18 million barrels a day. Kpler estimates October-to-date Middle East flows at 16.7 million barrels a day and Vortexa at 15.4 million, both below the at least 18.5 million barrels a day the two firms estimate for before the conflict. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported 32 attacks on ships around the Arabian peninsula so far this month, compared with 16 in the whole of September.
Why it matters: The figures bear on energy security, indicating that Gulf export volumes have held near prewar levels even as attacks on merchant shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz have multiplied.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Speaking on Russian strikes in the EU, the HR/VP said Romanian F-16 fighter jets shot down two drones over Romanian territorial waters on Saturday and that rescuers were searching for seven sailors missing after a drone attack on two tankers near Romania’s Black Sea coast. The statement said six attacks in 10 days by suspected Russian drones marked an escalation in the Black Sea, and that since mid-July Russia had intensified attacks on Ukraine’s export routes, with Ukraine losing an estimated 60 million euro a day in export revenues. It added that around 90% of Ukrainian agricultural exports move through the Black Sea corridor and that the European Council called for immediate restoration of safe passage for civilian shipping.
Why it matters: The statement ties attacks on Black Sea shipping to food security by linking Ukraine’s export routes to global grain prices and supplies.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
The National obtained the full text of the Makkah Defence Pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan after it was submitted to the Turkish parliament for approval. A Turkish source confirmed the text as authentic; it had not been made public when the agreement was signed in August, and the pact has a Nato-style mutual defence clause. Turkey's parliament must approve the pact before it becomes legally binding, though some articles have already been enacted, including the appointment of a secretary general and the establishment of a central Strategic Political and Defence Committee; the three countries held an emergency meeting this month to arrange rapid deployment of military forces to Saudi Arabia as it comes under attack by Houthi rebels.
Why it matters: The pact's Nato-style mutual defence clause and the parliamentary approval process make this a defence and security matter for the three states and their regional commitments.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Hungary is considering replacing Russia's Rosatom as main contractor on the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant and has started sounding out other suppliers, Reuters reported, citing two people. Viktor Orban's government awarded the €12.5bn Paks II project to Rosatom without a tender in 2014, and Prime Minister Peter Magyar's government, in office since April, is reviewing the contract with a decision expected later this year or early next year. One source close to the administration said the government was leaning towards a conclusion that the expansion is necessary but that Rosatom should not be involved, while Rosatom said it had received no formal notification of any intention to terminate the contract.
Why it matters: The review tests whether an EU member state can unwind its dependence on Rosatom in civil nuclear power, placing the decision within the briefing's energy security theme.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah received Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Riyadh on Wednesday for talks on bilateral relations and regional developments, including attacks by the Houthi militia on Saudi territory. Safadi expressed Jordan's solidarity with Saudi Arabia and support for measures to protect its security, sovereignty and residents, and the ministers reviewed efforts to de-escalate tensions and ensure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The two signed an amended protocol to the minutes establishing the Saudi-Jordanian Higher Coordination Council, chaired by Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Abdullah II, with the foreign ministers heading its general secretariat.
Why it matters: The talks tie the Houthi attacks and Gulf maritime navigation to a regional security and de-escalation agenda, formalised through a bilateral coordination council between Riyadh and Amman.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ghana plans to ban exports of raw mineral ores by 2030 to boost domestic processing, President John Dramani Mahama said at a mining conference in Accra. Mahama said investors must understand the processing obligations associated with access to the country's resources. Ghana is Africa's largest gold producer and also mines manganese, bauxite and diamonds; its proposed restrictions would place it alongside DR Congo, which restricts exports of copper and cobalt concentrates.
Why it matters: The proposed ban places Ghana within the briefing's critical minerals theme, as competition among China, the US and Europe for African mineral supplies intensifies.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Drone strikes on a market in the disputed Abyei administrative area on Monday 19 October killed more than 150 people, according to Yohana Akol Ngor, spokesperson for local authorities, cited in South Sudanese press. The chief administrator of Abyei, Justice Charles Abyei Jok, said most victims were Sudanese traders and that South Sudanese nationals and three Somalis were also killed, denouncing 22 strikes on a densely populated commercial zone. South Sudan's foreign ministry condemned the attack and summoned the Sudanese ambassador in Juba, while the strikes were attributed to the Sudanese army, at war with the Rapid Support Forces for more than three years.
Why it matters: The strike shows the Sudan conflict reaching the disputed, oil-rich Abyei area and threatening a cross-border supply route.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) applauded COMESA’s work in promoting the circular economy as a driver of industrial transformation, value addition, and sustainable economic growth in Eastern and Southern Africa. ECA participated in the Second COMESA Green Industry Connect Meeting at the 19th COMESA Business Forum and Exhibition in Harare, Zimbabwe. The meeting brought together policymakers, private sector leaders, financiers, development partners, and innovators to explore circular business models and strengthen value chains in leather, textiles, plastics, and electronic waste.
Why it matters: The meeting links circular-economy measures to regional integration and value addition, indicating that COMESA members are framing resource efficiency as part of industrial competitiveness.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa opened the 19th COMESA Business Forum and Exhibition in Harare, calling for the urgent removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers, stronger public-private sector collaboration and accelerated value addition in a regional market valued at approximately US$1.23 trillion and home to 680 million people. He called for wider adoption of interoperable digital payment systems, electronic certificates of origin and electronic single-window platforms, and urged African economies to move beyond exporting raw commodities towards mineral beneficiation, value addition and local manufacturing. COMESA Secretary-General Chileshe Mpundu Kapwepwe called for renewed commitment to inclusive industrialisation and for converting policy aspirations into measurable outcomes.
Why it matters: The forum sets out the trade and regional integration agenda that COMESA member states are pursuing alongside AfCFTA implementation, including barrier reduction, digital trade facilitation and value addition.
supply chain risk
Americas
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a Russian tanker carrying the first diesel shipment to the United States would leave port on Thursday, 22 October, and that the vessel's displacement is 40,000 metric tons, without specifying how much diesel was aboard. President Donald Trump announced the diesel deal on 9 October, saying Russia would immediately supply 300,000 metric tons to the United States and global markets, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons thereafter. Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban the following day, and most experts agree the agreement will have little effect on global energy markets in the near future.
Why it matters: The shipment bears on energy security, as a bilateral United States-Russia diesel deal redirects supply while European allies criticise it as straining transatlantic relations.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: gCaptain
Washington has made restrictions on hydrocarbons its principal instrument of pressure on Cuba, causing repeated nationwide power cuts; after Nicolás Maduro's overthrow and capture in January, the US moved to disrupt Venezuelan oil shipments and pressured Mexico, while a January 29 executive order set additional tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba. China delivered 10,000 solar power systems for rural households, healthcare facilities and public institutions in August and September, alongside solar parks including 15 facilities with 85 MW combined capacity. Russia's support has been more limited: the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered about 100,000 metric tons of crude to Matanzas in late March, while the tanker Universal changed course in late May without completing its diesel delivery.
Why it matters: The case shows how sanctions and energy security function as geoeconomic instruments, with Chinese renewable projects and Russian oil shipments affecting the Cuban regime's viability.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
A Mongabay analysis found that in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, companies have applied to the US government or been granted rights to seabed areas equal to about half the expanse designated for mining by the International Seabed Authority. Most applications to the US were made within the past year and a half, and some applicants also seek commercial recovery permits that NOAA could approve to allow extraction and sale of minerals. No company has yet submitted an exploitation application to the ISA, and commercial-scale seabed mining has not begun anywhere.
Why it matters: It bears on the briefing's theme of ocean governance, since US claims and permits in international waters raise legal questions about authority over the seabed and the multilateral ISA system.
critical minerals · great power rivalry
Russian officials said the first tanker of promised diesel exports is ready to sail as early as Thursday, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying it could depart on October 22 carrying 40,000 metric tons. The report did not specify the vessel's name, loading location or destination in the United States. The political debate continues, with members from both parties in the United States calling the deal a violation of United States law and Europeans urging Washington to reject the exports.
Why it matters: The shipment places energy security at the centre of United States-Russia political bargaining, while sanctions policy remains contested among allied governments.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
At a meeting in St Petersburg on October 21, Vladimir Putin told US envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia was in principle prepared to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine around November 10, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said. Ushakov said the main topic would be building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict. In a Fox News interview the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine was ready to freeze the war on the current front line if it received suitable security guarantees, and that any deal would need approval by Ukraine's parliament.
Why it matters: The exchange matters for European security because the stated agenda is a post-conflict security system for Russia and Ukraine, with Kyiv seeking guarantees modelled on Nato's Article 5.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
US President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia to supply diesel to US and global markets is unlikely to meaningfully lower diesel prices, market watchers and analysts said, noting that the promised volumes are too small to ease a global supply squeeze. Diesel prices have shot to record highs during the US-Israeli war on Iran. Critics said lifting sanctions on Russian diesel could help Moscow fund further attacks on Ukraine.
Why it matters: The arrangement shows how energy security and sanctions relief can conflict, as lifting restrictions on Russian diesel may undermine efforts to curb Moscow’s revenues while offering limited relief to consumers.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry