Frontline Arctic: The Evolution of Russia’s Military Posture in a Changing Arctic
Russia's Arctic military posture remains focused on denying foreign access to the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and the Northern Sea Route, while expanding interdiction capabilities. The Kremlin has adapted its approach due to the war in Ukraine, sanctions, and climate change, and feels increasingly vulnerable, particularly after Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Russia is turning the Arctic into a fortress, a frontline, and a contested space, but its military capabilities are constrained by the war's effects.
Why it matters: This matters for Arctic security because Russia's securitized posture and declining capabilities are reshaping the balance of power in the region, complicating NATO's access and deterrence efforts.