Energy security and critical-minerals competition tie together today's items across regions. In Asia-Pacific, Japan's vulnerability to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and South Korea's Arctic shipping push reflect diversification efforts. In Europe-Eurasia-MENA, Saudi Arabia's uranium discovery and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure highlight both opportunity and risk. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Dangote refinery listing and South Africa's refining concerns show energy sovereignty drives. In the Americas, US investments in tungsten and Venezuelan crude exports expand supply options.
Value chains & chokepoints
When oil stopped flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz in March, Japan tapped its strategic reserves and increased imports from the United States. Gasoline prices rose about 20 percent, prompting the government to introduce a fuel-price mitigation program. Despite these measures, the country likely cannot diversify substantially away from the Middle East.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of energy security, as Japan's reliance on Middle East oil leaves it vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
A Venezuelan delegation will participate in the G20 energy meetings in Houston, Texas, US officials said on Sept 14. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the summit will include G20 countries plus Venezuela, and attendees will include Venezuelan oil minister Paula Henao and PDVSA vice-president Jovanny Martinez. Russian diplomats also indicated Moscow would send officials to the summit.
Why it matters: The invitation advances the energy security theme by drawing Venezuelan and Russian officials into US-hosted talks as Washington seeks to shift oil supply away from the Middle East amid war-driven price pressures.
great power rivalry
Also reported by: Rigzone
Anas Al-Hajji said China began moving outside the Gulf to secure sulfur supplies after the Hormuz crisis disrupted usual shipments. Chinese companies in Canada gave Beijing access to alternative supplies, and Beijing quietly bought small companies with high sulfur stakes or signed partnership agreements. He warned that reduced sulfur supplies pressure fertilizer costs and could affect global food prices.
Why it matters: This illustrates how supply-chain disruptions are redrawing global trade and intensifying competition for critical inputs.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Major powers are increasingly restricting rivals' access through technology, infrastructure, and economic relationships. Research presented in the article finds that monopolization raises the probability of major-power conflict by 12.3 percentage points from a baseline of 4.7 percent. The article also cites the Soviet consolidation of Eastern Europe as a historical example of how exclusion can escalate.
Why it matters: This analysis highlights the theme of major-power competition, showing how strategic exclusion can escalate into broader conflict.
sanctions export controls · chokepoint infrastructure · great power rivalry
On September 15, 2021, Australia abandoned a $90-billion program to build French-designed conventional diesel-electric submarines and instead entered a trilateral security partnership with the US and the UK to produce nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines. The Australian government sought the extra stealth and stamina of nuclear-fueled submarines, responding to China's military buildup and expanding reach into the Pacific, and over the following five years AUKUS survived despite the dismantling of many predecessor initiatives under the second Trump presidency.
Why it matters: This matters for regional security because AUKUS has endured a change in US administration while other initiatives were dismantled.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
Guinea's state-owned Nimba Mining and Glencore signed a bauxite pre-financing and offtake agreement worth more than $300 million, under which Glencore will market 10-12 million metric tons annually for five years. Mines Minister Bouna Sylla said Guinea wants to expand the partnership into alumina refining and energy investments. Guinea seeks to diversify funding and export markets beyond China, which receives more than 70 percent of its bauxite exports.
Why it matters: This matters for the China–Global South theme because it shows a major bauxite producer seeking to reduce its export dependence on China while maintaining ties.
critical minerals · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The cost of hiring an oil tanker on the benchmark route topped $1 million a day for the first time, reaching $1.035 million. The benchmark route has become less relevant as exports shift to shuttling through Hormuz, with the alternative route from the Gulf of Oman costing about $644,000 a day. Rates are driven by the Iran war, refining margins, and disruptions to Saudi oil flows from Houthi rebels.
Why it matters: This illustrates how geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping energy markets and shipping costs.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
China’s slowing growth and worsening trade imbalances are reshaping its economic relationship with Africa on three fronts: as a demand market, supplier, and competitor. Exports to Africa have grown faster than to all other regions, but effects are uneven: Angola’s crude exports to China have fallen by half as a share of GDP, the DRC’s clean-energy mineral exports have risen to 25 percent of GDP, and South Africa’s mineral export performance varies by product.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of China’s slowdown reshaping trade, because African economies face highly varied exposures depending on their export mixes.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
On September 16, 2025, South Korea’s Lee Jae-myung administration formally adopted Arctic shipping development as a national policy, and the Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries subsequently moved to Busan. In August 2026 South Korea sent its first trial container via the Northern Sea Route to Europe, and on September 11, 2026, Hanwha Ocean began constructing the country’s second ice-breaker.
Why it matters: For the Arctic shipping theme, South Korea’s entry into NSR use carries sanctions risk and geopolitical risk from the U.S.-Russia-China strategic triangle.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Justin Sun says he is suing actress Jing Tian to recover a marriage fee after their romance ended. Russia is using Chinese components to mass-produce inexpensive arms. Z.AI plans a $5.0 billion fundraising to fuel AI expansion.
Why it matters: These items illustrate how geoeconomics encompasses personal finance disputes, defense industrial competition, and technology investment.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia, firing dozens of missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait and wounding 13 civilians. Gulf Arab states postponed planned talks with Iran, and an earlier attack knocked Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline offline. The Houthis have taken Perim Island and control almost the entire western coast of Yemen along the Red Sea.
Why it matters: This escalation threatens global oil supplies, a key theme of this briefing.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Al-Monitor
New strikes hit Saudi Arabia and ships in the Gulf. A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile, causing a fire and evacuation, and Houthi drone strikes knocked out a Saudi east-west pipeline. The Houthis also captured Perim Island, and oil prices rose above $100 last week.
Why it matters: The attacks threaten to worsen energy disruption by endangering both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea route, key chokepoints for global oil supplies.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
President Donald Trump said Monday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to target each other's energy facilities. There was no immediate confirmation from Kyiv or Moscow. Trump also blamed the Russia-Ukraine war, not Iran, for rising world diesel prices.
Why it matters: This matters for the briefing's theme of energy and inflation, because the claimed agreement directly concerns infrastructure whose strikes are blamed for global diesel prices and American fuel costs.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Semafor (Africa / Gulf newsletters), The Hindu BusinessLine
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced the discovery of 110 million tonnes of ore containing uranium at the Jabal Sayid project in the Madinah region. He said the ore contains high concentrations of rare earth elements, particularly heavy rare earth elements, alongside promising concentrations of uranium. The discovery follows a US-Saudi deal for a civilian nuclear programme signed in July.
Why it matters: This discovery ties into the critical minerals theme by positioning Saudi Arabia as a potential supplier of uranium and rare earth elements amid US-Saudi nuclear co-operation.
critical minerals
Also reported by: The Northern Miner
Russia's Arctic military posture remains focused on denying foreign access to the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and the Northern Sea Route, while expanding interdiction capabilities. The Kremlin has adapted its approach due to the war in Ukraine, sanctions, and climate change, and feels increasingly vulnerable, particularly after Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Russia is turning the Arctic into a fortress, a frontline, and a contested space, but its military capabilities are constrained by the war's effects.
Why it matters: This matters for Arctic security because Russia's securitized posture and declining capabilities are reshaping the balance of power in the region, complicating NATO's access and deterrence efforts.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
In August, tankers operated by companies not based in G7 countries loaded 70.7% of Russia’s crude exports, up from 63.8% in July. Hong Kong tanker operators lifted 32 million barrels, the most since November 2022. Shipments by Greek tanker operators fell to 13.6 million barrels from 26.4 million, with Black Sea liftings dropping to 3 million from 11.6 million.
Why it matters: This matters for the sanctions theme because it shows non-G7 operators filling the gap left by Greek firms as the price-cap regime fragments.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
Glencore has long dominated Africa's minerals market. Mercuria, an energy trader, is now expanding into copper, cobalt and zinc, with the rivalry playing out in Guinea and the DRC.
Why it matters: This competition for critical minerals in Africa is reshaping the continent's minerals market.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: "minerais critiques" Afrique
The South African Reserve Bank said the country’s oil import bill could have been $4.7 billion lower had it not closed refineries. Refining capacity in Africa’s largest economy has halved over the past decade, and imported refined fuel now supplies more than half of domestic demand. The country plans to at least triple its refining capacity amid concerns about exposure to global price shocks.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy sovereignty, as the Iran war has prompted African nations to reassess their reliance on imported refined fuel.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The Dangote refinery is listing on the Lagos stock exchange, offering more than four billion shares to raise up to 2,150 billion nairas (about $1.4 billion) to finance its expansion. The group aims to double current production capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day and to attract up to 10 million shareholders across Africa. The minimum purchase is ten shares for 5,250 nairas, under $4.
Why it matters: This matters for African capital markets: the listing tests whether continental savings can finance large industrial projects.
supply chain risk
The Gambia has banned protests without permits after days of unrest over electricity blackouts. Police fired tear gas at demonstrators, and the ban comes ahead of December's general election in which President Adama Barrow seeks a third term. Electricity shortages have worsened due to reduced imports from Senegal and Guinea, and a deal with Karpowership expired last year.
Why it matters: This matters for the theme of energy security, as electricity supply failures are driving political instability and electoral tensions.
water · supply chain risk
Aliko Dangote opened Africa’s largest initial public offer on the Lagos exchange, listing the $20 billion Dangote Refinery as the fourth Dangote Industries subsidiary to go public in Nigeria. The offer is expected to raise more than $4 billion at about a $50 billion valuation, and the refinery will likely account for up to 40% of the Lagos exchange’s capitalization. Proceeds will fund expansion, including a $14 billion project to double the refinery’s output.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy theme because the refinery’s expansion is aimed at displacing imported fuel and serving African markets more directly.
supply chain risk
Americas
The U.S. Department of Defense is investing $450 million in The Elmet Group, with $150 million earmarked for Blue Moon Metals' Springer tungsten complex in Nevada. Blue Moon would receive a $50-million tungsten concentrate prepayment facility and a $25-million equity investment, while Elmet would put another $75 million into a joint venture to restart Springer's APT plant. The Pentagon estimates China controls about 85% of global tungsten supply.
Why it matters: This transaction illustrates the critical minerals theme by using public money to secure supply chains.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: "critical minerals" supply chain
The U.S. government closed a $35.6-million investment for about 10% of Trilogy Metals, with the Defense Department paying $17.8 million to Trilogy and $17.8 million to South32 for existing shares. Proceeds were committed to Ambler Metals, the 50-50 joint venture advancing the Upper Kobuk projects. Warrants and options could raise the government’s economic position to about 17.5%.
Why it matters: This transaction exemplifies the critical-minerals theme of Washington using equity stakes to secure strategic mineral supply chains and reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Industry leaders and researchers have warned of the need to 'pace the frontier' of AI development, citing risks of loss of control. The United States and China are preparing AI safety talks ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting, but a dual credibility problem makes significant agreement unlikely. China has cited risks of technological hegemony, while the US has doubts about China's willingness to honor commitments.
Why it matters: This matters for systemic competition, as the balance of AI capabilities will be a deciding factor in the broader competition between the US and China.
great power rivalry
Since January 2025, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners under various legal authorities, raising the average US tariff rate from 2.2 percent to 9.9 percent. Free trade agreements have not prevented these additional tariffs, though the USMCA has largely shielded Canada and Mexico. In July, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian imports under Section 338, including goods imported under USMCA, and the US declined to renew the USMCA.
Why it matters: This matters for trade policy because it shows that free trade agreements no longer guarantee tariff certainty when the executive can impose additional tariffs.
supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine was ready to de-escalate the war with Russia if its rival did the same, after US President Donald Trump announced that the foes had agreed to end strikes on energy targets. Trump had at the weekend berated Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries, blaming them for causing a diesel shortage. Russia made no immediate comment.
Why it matters: This bears on the geoeconomics theme because energy infrastructure strikes directly affect global oil prices and fuel supply.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
According to Intermodal analyst Nikos Tagoulis, Venezuelan crude exports have nearly doubled in 2026 versus 2025, with the US share rising to 51% and India's to 22%, while China's fell to 2%. A gradual increase in Venezuelan production is expected from next year, strengthening short-haul trade to the US Gulf Coast and supporting Aframax and Suezmax demand, while a further rise in Canadian and Mexican shipments to Asia would underpin long-haul employment for larger crude carriers.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy security theme: the recovery of Venezuelan output and exports expands Atlantic Basin supply options and strengthens US energy security while reshaping tanker trade patterns.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk