The Age of Strategic Exclusion
Major powers are increasingly restricting rivals' access through technology, infrastructure, and economic relationships. Research presented in the article finds that monopolization raises the probability of major-power conflict by 12.3 percentage points from a baseline of 4.7 percent. The article also cites the Soviet consolidation of Eastern Europe as a historical example of how exclusion can escalate.
Why it matters: This analysis highlights the theme of major-power competition, showing how strategic exclusion can escalate into broader conflict.