Will European Gas Prices Keep Rising This Winter?
Goldman Sachs Research says ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas flows from the Middle East and low storage levels in Northwest Europe are expected to keep European gas prices high as the winter heating season approaches. The price of LNG in Europe rose around 70% since July to €73 per megawatt hour as of September 21, and the firm's commodities analysts expect prices to average €70/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026. Exports of LNG from the Persian Gulf are estimated at 15%–25% of their levels before the outbreak of war between Iran and the US and Israel in February 2026.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security, because the forecast ties European winter gas prices to Middle East LNG flows and Northwest European storage levels.