Energy security runs through the day's items, and the Strait of Hormuz is the pivot: Iran's seven-day reopening proposal awaits a US response, Trump rejected it, and Araghchi ties reopening to frozen assets and oil sales. Against that chokepoint, diversification is visible elsewhere — helium from Saskatchewan in the Americas, Southeast Asia's LNG import build-out in Asia-Pacific, and a US$250 million generation and transmission financing deal in Zambia. Europe pulls the other way: EU storage at 69.6% on September 20, with Goldman Sachs expecting high prices. The common thread is that supply routes, not production alone, set the risk.
Value chains & chokepoints
North American Helium began operating a helium purification facility at the Stuart Valley field in south-western Saskatchewan, Canada, on 20 September 2026. The field's reserves are estimated at about 1.1 billion cubic feet, and its output of up to 73 million cubic feet a year is sold to major global industrial gas distributors under long-term contracts. The company said the facility will process 12 million cubic feet of raw gas per day, with a stable production pattern for up to nine years.
Why it matters: The start-up adds supply outside the Strait of Hormuz, which the source says carries about 35% of global helium trade, making it a case of energy security and supply-chain diversification for semiconductor and defence inputs.
critical minerals · chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Sources close to the negotiations said a US-India trade deal could protect India from the full 100 per cent tariff authorised under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and from potential action in the ongoing Section 301 investigation on excess capacity. A source said the legislation authorises the US President to impose the tariff but does not enforce it, and that any negotiated trade deal would cap the amount mentioned in the bill. The same source said the Graham legislation would not supersede a trade deal, and that every week without a deal may leave India more vulnerable to other pending US trade actions.
Why it matters: The reported linkage between the Graham Act's tariff authority, the Section 301 case and a pending bilateral agreement places the negotiation within the briefing's trade-policy theme, where tariff exposure and market access are settled through deal-making rather than legislation alone.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Iran is waiting for an official American response to a proposal it submitted to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian officials stress that priority should be given to resuming negotiations with Washington. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi delivered the plan through the Qatari mediator; it provides for reopening the strait within seven days if conditions are met. President Donald Trump rejected the proposal, saying the economic pressure imposed on Tehran had pushed it to seek an agreement to open the strait, and confirming that Washington moved large quantities of oil through the maritime corridor the previous night.
Why it matters: With the strait carrying a fifth of global oil and gas production and Iran having closed it in response to the US naval blockade, the dispute bears directly on the briefing's energy security theme.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
A defence pact that updates and amends the 1951 defence agreement between Denmark and the US allows expansion and modernisation of the Pituffik US Space Force Base in northwestern Greenland and permits additional military bases at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig, though they will still require approval from Greenland and Denmark. The deal is said to be aimed at Beijing and Moscow and calls for stronger Nato engagement in the Arctic. Narsarsuaq, a settlement of a few dozen people in southern Greenland, has a former civilian airport and US airbase that closed in 1958.
Why it matters: The agreement expands US basing rights in Greenland as part of the wider US-China strategic competition in the Arctic.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
All 10 member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathered in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, to mark the bloc's 25th anniversary; it began in 2001 as a club of six. This year's summit produced 27 documents alongside the Bishkek Declaration, which condemned the military strikes on Iranian territory by the US and Israel as violations of international law. At the United Nations General Assembly, Donald Trump asked whether he should "annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly", said the United States would not join global regulation of AI and urged countries to abandon the International Criminal Court.
Why it matters: The Bishkek Declaration places ten states on record against US and Israeli military action, extending the sanctions theme from unilateral US measures to a contest over international legal authority.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
The Philippines said China Coast Guard and People's Liberation Army Navy vessels interfered with a regular Philippine rotation and resupply mission to its outpost at Second Thomas Shoal on Thursday. A Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson said no one was hurt but the supply mission was not completed, and that Chinese vessels carried out dangerous maneuvers and came within close range of a Philippine ship. Manila said the incident is the first publicly known obstruction of such a mission since a provisional agreement on the operations was forged in July 2024.
Why it matters: The episode puts the July 2024 provisional arrangement under strain, making maritime security in the South China Sea a live risk for regional shipping and diplomacy.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
The article argues that Beijing benefits from the US-Iran conflict because it diverts Washington's attention and resources while China expands its strength and presents itself as a rule-abiding superpower. It states that China has reportedly provided satellite imagery to Iran for targeting US bases and supplied shipments with dual-use components Iran could use for missiles and drones. It adds that China is a far larger investor and energy partner in the Arab Gulf states than in Iran, and that it accumulated large strategic oil stocks last year which it has been drawing down since the war began.
Why it matters: The conflict bears directly on energy security, since China's strategic stocks, pipeline imports from Russia and Central Asia, and renewable and nuclear capacity limit its exposure to disruption of Gulf oil and gas flows.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · geostrategy military basing
US Ambassador to China David Perdue said Washington's stance on Taiwan remains unchanged after Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, saying the US does not support independence or coercion. Perdue said the US is not denying Taiwan what it needs to defend itself, and that the Trump administration has approved US$11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan with continuing conversations about other sales. Xi pressed the US to oppose Taiwan independence, while Trump said on Sept 26 that he did not spend a lot of time talking about Taiwan with Xi.
Why it matters: The remarks show Taiwan remains a central fault line in US–China relations, where security commitments, arms sales and the island's role as a chip supplier tie strategic competition to economic leverage.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
A report published on September 24 by US think tank Global Energy Monitor found that Southeast Asia's LNG import capacity has risen from 47mn tonnes per year in 2024 to about 70mn tpy currently, while the region is also developing over 100 GW of gas-fired power generation capacity. GEM data shows that development of 65mn tpy of LNG import capacity has been paused or cancelled. Vietnam's state-run PV Gas approached potential suppliers in September for a five-year contract covering 250,000-450,000 tpy of LNG, and the Philippines held talks with Malaysia's Petronas in mid-September as it seeks to reduce reliance on coal-fired generation.
Why it matters: The build-out indicates that energy security considerations continue to drive Southeast Asian import infrastructure even as spot prices and supply disruptions raise cost risks.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Nuclear fuel for Unit 2 of Bangladesh's Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, scheduled to arrive on September 24, did not arrive after the flight was not given permission to use Pakistani airspace, according to Bangladesh's Minister for Science and Technology, Faqir Mahbub Anam. The minister said the exact reason Pakistan did not grant the clearance is still unknown, and that Russia has indicated the first week of October as a proposed new date. Rosatom, which is building the plant with Russian support, had not responded to an emailed query from ANI.
Why it matters: The rescheduling of reactor fuel delivery places energy security and the transit permissions on which cross-border supply routes depend at the centre of the project's timeline.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
US President Donald Trump said on Sept 27 that he is still looking "very seriously" at a ban on US diesel exports to combat high prices, speaking to a Fox News reporter near Chicago. Several farm-state lawmakers have urged limiting US diesel exports during the peak of the fall harvest season, while oil chief executives and industry groups have pushed instead for suspending the federal diesel excise tax. US diesel exports surged to a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day in August, and retail prices averaged about US$6.50 a gallon after hitting a record the previous week.
Why it matters: The debate over restricting diesel exports places energy security and trade policy among the administration's options ahead of November's midterm elections.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls
Also reported by: Bloomberg, The Hindu BusinessLine
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will remain steadfast "in the face of any aggression, even if it comes to an apocalyptic war", and that Tehran was still awaiting an official US response through mediators to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. He said Iran was prepared to reopen the strait if the US ended what he called the "war of aggression", released Iranian assets he said had been illegally frozen and allowed Tehran to sell its oil. US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump was not confident that Iran was negotiating in good faith, and that Tehran was asking for everything up front.
Why it matters: The exchange ties the Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets and oil sales to sanctions relief, placing it within the briefing's energy security theme.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump is not confident that Iran is negotiating in good faith over its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Waltz said Tehran was asking for relief from sanctions imposed under what the White House has called Operation Economic Fury and for an end to UN snapback sanctions, and he cited what he called Iranian breaches of the June ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said only a negotiated solution could resolve the regional war.
Why it matters: The exchange bears on the briefing's theme of sanctions and nuclear diplomacy, since relief from US sanctions and UN snapback measures are the stated obstacles to a negotiated end to the war.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sept 26 that he had sent envoys around the world to press countries to economically isolate Iran, citing new restrictions on Iranian airlines and banks. Turkey and Oman halted incoming flights from Mahan Air and the United Arab Emirates stopped all flights by Iranian airlines, while Iran's ISNA news agency reported that Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq, Oman and the UAE had revoked Iranian flight permits. ISNA said flights to China and Russia continued, and the UAE central bank blocked transactions to and from Iran by branches of Bank Melli.
Why it matters: The reported measures show the sanctions theme in practice, with US pressure routed through third-country aviation and banking restrictions rather than direct US action alone.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English)
EU gas storage sites were 69.6% full on September 20, holding 74.32bn cubic metres, against 81.6% a year earlier, and the end-August reading was the lowest for the date since records began in 2011. Europe is competing with Asia for LNG cargoes, with the Japan-Korea Marker spot price at $25.82 per mmBtu on September 25 against about $24 for Europe's TTF benchmark. EU imports of Russian LNG fell to a multiyear low in August as Yamal cargoes sailed to Asia, while China imported 951,150 tonnes of Russian LNG in August, up 53% month on month.
Why it matters: The combination of record-low EU storage and the redirection of Russian LNG to Asia places energy security at the centre of the winter supply outlook.
supply chain risk · chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Goldman Sachs Research says ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas flows from the Middle East and low storage levels in Northwest Europe are expected to keep European gas prices high as the winter heating season approaches. The price of LNG in Europe rose around 70% since July to €73 per megawatt hour as of September 21, and the firm's commodities analysts expect prices to average €70/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026. Exports of LNG from the Persian Gulf are estimated at 15%–25% of their levels before the outbreak of war between Iran and the US and Israel in February 2026.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security, because the forecast ties European winter gas prices to Middle East LNG flows and Northwest European storage levels.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Nigerian federal government ordered an investigation by the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) several months ago in a community hosting Shell installations. Since October 2025 gas has been escaping to the surface in the village of Bille through ageing pipelines buried underground for decades, and according to Diri Tomitonwa, a leader of the Bille youth federation, more than half of the village's wells are affected by the pollution. Residents have left their homes because of the smell, and Diri says many of his neighbours cannot afford to buy packs of water sachets.
Why it matters: The case sets out the local environmental and public-health costs of hydrocarbon extraction in the Niger Delta, a recurring subject in the briefing's coverage of energy and resources.
supply chain risk
A new investigation by the consortium Mazingira pour tous reports sulphur dioxide peaks around Tenke Fungurume Mining's 30K plant in Lualaba, in the south-east of the DRC. At Manomapia, a neighbourhood near the plant, investigators recorded a sulphur dioxide peak of 1,834 micrograms per cubic metre over ten minutes, 3.7 times the value recommended by the World Health Organization for that duration, and the study followed 209 people over eighteen weeks, with four in ten of 103 Manomapia participants reporting eye irritation and nearly two in ten nosebleeds. The study follows a March report by EIA and PremiCongo, while TFM rejects the pollution accusations, disputes the methods and says its own readings respect applicable limits.
Why it matters: The dispute bears on the briefing's critical-minerals theme, because the cobalt extracted at the site enters the supply chains of several carmakers and the authors are asking for an independent inspection and publication of TFM's data so the state can adjudicate between the two accounts.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Exergy, an Africa-focused integrated energy investor, and Mercuria, a global energy and commodities group, signed a US$250 million financing deal in Lusaka. Subject to regulatory approvals, the funds will finance generation and transmission projects by two Exergy subsidiaries, Lunzua Power Company and Lusitu Transmission and Distribution Company, several of which are already underway. Exergy trades in the Southern African power market and is developing a transmission highway linking Zambia to the East African power market.
Why it matters: The agreement is an instance of the briefing's energy theme, in which private capital is committed to generation and transmission capacity in a region where supply constraints affect mining, agriculture and manufacturing.
chokepoint infrastructure
Nearly a week after the resumption of conflict in northern Ethiopia, the federal army is conducting a counter-offensive on several fronts. In Tigray, a drone struck the building of Tigrai TV in Mekelle on Sunday 27 September, with no injuries reported so far according to a journalist of the channel. Clashes between federal troops and Tigrayan forces were also reported in the Alamata area in southern Tigray, about 400 kilometres north of Addis Ababa, where military sources say the army now controls the localities of Kobo and Waja.
Why it matters: The renewed fighting and the strike on a regional broadcaster bear directly on the briefing's theme of armed conflict and its escalation in the Horn of Africa.
geostrategy military basing
Niger has reached an agreement with Madaouela Mining Company (MAMICO) to revive the Madaouela uranium project in the north of the country. The company is 60% owned by Atomic Eagle and 40% by the Nigerien state, with an initial royalty of $10 million planned, and the Ministry of Mines says the revival could create approximately 1,000 jobs, primarily for young Nigeriens. The agreement follows the withdrawal of GoviEx Uranium's licence in 2024 and the resulting arbitration dispute, and stipulates the withdrawal of the arbitration proceedings within seven days of its signing.
Why it matters: The deal illustrates resource nationalism, as Niamey seeks to increase its stake in mining projects and redefine its relationships with foreign operators in the uranium sector.
critical minerals
Americas
Iran maintained its seven-day proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and said it would not soften its conditions. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal but said he expects negotiations to resume this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said only a negotiated solution can resolve the impasse and that Iran is ready to open the strait if certain things are done by the US.
Why it matters: The impasse bears on energy security, since the Strait of Hormuz is described as the global energy bottleneck.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Iran said only diplomacy can resolve its conflict with the United States and Israel, after US President Donald Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the fighting. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said any move toward reopening the strait is contingent on Iran's conditions being met, and that mediators have not officially relayed a US rejection of the plan. Trump said the Iranians want a deal to open the strait immediately "because they're losing so badly".
Why it matters: The exchange bears on the briefing's energy theme, since the text states the conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and harmed the global economy.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump said he expects the United States to achieve a "very soon" victory in the war with Iran and that Washington will not allow Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon. In remarks to Fox News he said he expected oil prices to return to their previous levels once the war ends, and told Axios he expected further talks with Iran this week despite rejecting Tehran's latest proposal. US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Washington rejected the Iranian proposal because of preconditions that included lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets and ending the US naval blockade.
Why it matters: The linkage Trump draws between the war's end, oil prices and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz places energy security at the centre of the negotiating position on both sides.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said Tehran's preconditions, including lifting sanctions and access to billions in frozen assets, were behind Washington's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran presented the initiative at the UN General Assembly in New York and sent it to Washington via Qatari mediators; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said approval would start a seven-day countdown to reopen the strait and halt fighting in the region, including Lebanon. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the proposal was coordinated with the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, while Trump said he expected more talks with Iran during the week and left open resuming strikes.
Why it matters: The bargaining links the reopening of an energy chokepoint to sanctions relief and frozen assets, placing the briefing's sanctions and energy-security theme at the centre of US-Iran negotiations.
chokepoint maritime · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Donald Trump met Xi Jinping last week, and the Chinese readout reiterated "constructive strategic stability" as the concept framing the relationship's next phase, with cooperation as the primary track and competition kept within bounds. Xi said the Thucydides Trap can be overcome and that competition should be a race of catching up rather than a wrestle in which one either wins or loses. Trump called it a "great meeting" and revived the "friendship" trope.
Why it matters: The meeting is presented as cementing a managed rivalry in great-power competition, in which China sets the boundaries while Washington, constrained by rare earth dependence, market jitters and an election calendar, accepts stabilisation over confrontation.
great power rivalry · critical minerals
Iranian cleric Mohsen Heydari said Mojtaba Khamenei was nearly killed in US-Israel strikes in February targeting his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and was later pulled from the rubble after three Tehran hospitals were bombed. US President Donald Trump said he believes Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but was very seriously wounded, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he is completely healthy. Heydari also described the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader on March 8, in which he received 50 of 59 votes.
Why it matters: The conflicting accounts of Mojtaba Khamenei's health and the circumstances of his selection highlight the opacity of Iran's leadership during the US-Iran war.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing