COMMENT: Trump-Putin diesel deal is largely for show, Russia gains little, Carnegie's Vakulenko says
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argued in a Carnegie Politika commentary published on October 13 that the diesel agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will add little Russian diesel to the global market and earn Moscow only "small fry". Under the deal, Russia is to export 300,000 tonnes of diesel in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1mn tonnes a month after that through April 2027, with a US Treasury licence authorising specified transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027. Vakulenko noted that Russia's exportable surplus has collapsed under Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries, from about 3mn tonnes a month in April to around 325,000 tonnes in September.
Why it matters: The commentary bears on the briefing's sanctions theme, indicating that a US Treasury licence does not by itself restore Russian export volumes while Ukrainian strikes on refineries continue.