Energy security is the day's common thread, and it runs through every region. The IEA ties the Iran war to a diesel shortage and a downgraded growth outlook, while attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi facilities keep supply risk live. Asia-Pacific responses diverge: Japan's cabinet backs alternative-supply bills, yet Taiwan's Alaska LNG commitment is disputed by South Korea. In Europe, Dombrovskis doubts Russian diesel volumes will move prices, even as the US licence eases them. Sub-Saharan Africa shows the strain: Malawi's hard-currency shortage and fuel queues. The pull is between announced deals and confirmed supply.
Value chains & chokepoints
The International Energy Agency said the global diesel shortage triggered by the Iran war will persist well into next year, with depleted inventories unlikely to recover until the second half of 2027. Combined net gas oil exports from the Middle East and Russia plunged more than 60 per cent annually to 820,000 barrels per day last month, a loss of 1.3 million bpd, while US diesel stocks ended September at a 14-year seasonal low. The IEA cut its 2027 oil demand forecast by 630,000 bpd and its global economic growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points to 3 per cent.
Why it matters: The agency's warning ties the war's energy-security shock to refined-product shortages, depleted inventories and a downgraded growth outlook, showing how supply disruption in the Gulf transmits into wider economic costs.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
The summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping produced some lowering of tariffs but no agreement on overcapacity and trade. The European Union and China established a working group on macroeconomic imbalances in May, which has not produced results, and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said patience is running out. European manufacturers face stiff competition from Chinese counterparts, and political leaders across Europe are calling for more action.
Why it matters: This underscores the theme of overcapacity in global trade.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Japan's cabinet approved three bills to diversify energy imports, support tanker insurance and finance alternative oil transport infrastructure. One bill would establish a grant scheme, administered by JOGMEC and funded by contributions collected from oil importers, to compensate refiners, trading houses and petrochemical companies for part of the additional cost of sourcing crude and petroleum products from alternative suppliers. A second bill would have Tokyo partially cover hull and cargo insurance claims where international reinsurers cannot provide cover because of geopolitical risks, and extend government-backed protection and indemnity arrangements beyond crude oil to petroleum products and LNG, while a third would give JOGMEC powers to invest in and guarantee financing for overseas pipelines providing alternative export routes.
Why it matters: The package makes energy security the organising frame of Japan's response to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, on which government figures put 93% of its crude import dependence.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Leaders from Southeast Asia are to meet in Manila on November 10 for the ASEAN summit, the same date on which the China-U.S. trade truce was set to expire. The September 24 summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump was widely characterized as heavy on pomp and light on substance but delivered more time. ASEAN and China have been each other’s largest trading partner since 2020, and Southeast Asian countries have come to rely heavily on China as a provider of intermediate goods.
Why it matters: The trade theme is central: Western efforts to confront China’s trading practices must not come at the cost of economic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries that rely on Chinese intermediate goods.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its 2026 average annual copper price forecast to $13,500/tonne from $12,700, and JP Morgan Global Research expects the price to reach $14,800 in the fourth quarter of this year. Australia's Office of the Chief Economist expects prices to remain high through 2028 before easing to about $11,600 a tonne in real terms by 2031. The forecasts cite the Iran war, sulphur shortages, mine disruptions, the Congo's copper concentrate export ban, and the threat of US tariffs on refined copper.
Why it matters: The outlook ties copper prices to US tariff decisions and supply constraints, placing the metal within the briefing's commodities theme.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Asia-Pacific
South Africa, the world's largest manganese producer, is expanding into battery materials but needs buyers willing to pay more than Chinese suppliers charge. Manganese Metal Co. has completed commissioning of a plant in Mbombela designed to produce 6,000 tonnes annually of high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate, and is now making samples for potential customers. MMC expects commercial sales to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027, while China produced 97% of the battery-grade manganese sulphate last year.
Why it matters: The plant's reliance on buyer premiums illustrates how critical minerals processing capacity outside China remains constrained by cost competitiveness against established Chinese supply.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil shipments to China in 2024 to meet growing demand from new refineries that will come online next year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. China is hosting an investment conference focusing on Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, coinciding with a visit to Beijing by Saudi Arabia's Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates this week, Beijing's foreign ministry said.
Why it matters: The overlap of planned crude supply increases, a Saudi-focused investment conference and a Chinese premier's Gulf tour places energy and investment ties between China and Saudi Arabia within the briefing's geoeconomics theme.
great power rivalry
With China's steel demand in structural decline, the report states that the outlook for Australia's iron ore exports is one of decreasing volumes and values, with significant revenue implications for the federal and Western Australian governments. It says the processing of iron ore into green iron has been identified as an opportunity to add value to a declining export, and is starting to look more like an economic necessity than an opportunity. The report adds that China's global green hydrogen dominance and its strategic imperative to reduce reliance on imports from Australia may limit green iron trade between the two countries, so Australia must prioritise alternative markets including Japan, South Korea, India and Southeast Asia.
Why it matters: The report frames steel decarbonisation as the context in which Australia's largest export must find buyers beyond China, since China's import-substitution strategy may cap green iron trade between the two countries.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump said Taiwan had agreed to buy 30 per cent of the LNG from the long-planned Alaska LNG project, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Taiwan had committed $4.4 billion to develop the pipeline, with the terms of the deal not immediately clear. South Korea has rejected Trump's announcement of a $54 billion investment in Alaska LNG, saying it has given no firm commitment on the project. Developer Glenfarne Group estimates the project will cost between $44.5 billion and $54.5 billion, with first exports targeted for 2031, and only six non-binding offtake agreements totalling 13 million tonnes a year had been signed as of January.
Why it matters: The gap between announced and confirmed commitments bears directly on energy security, since South-East Asian buyers are seeking to diversify supply after the Iran war cut off shipments from the region.
great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Vietnam and the Philippines are often portrayed as taking different approaches to the South China Sea disputes, but the article states that their actions this year show convergence, with both combining diplomatic and legal measures with outpost upgrades and expanded security cooperation. Vietnam protested China's land reclamation at Antelope Reef in March 2026 without direct reference to China, reaffirmed UNCLOS as the basis for maritime entitlements, and accelerated outpost upgrades across 18 reefs in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines marked the tenth anniversary of the 2016 arbitral award, filed 39 diplomatic protests against China up to September, extended the runway on Thitu Island and expanded defence cooperation with the United States.
Why it matters: The shared dependence of Hanoi and Manila on China-led clean energy supply chains constrains their strategic autonomy, linking South China Sea positioning to geoeconomics and supply-chain security.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported two attacks on merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, one on a tanker and one on a container ship, both north of the Musandam Peninsula and both involving an "unknown projectile." UKMTO did not provide times, vessel names, damage, crew status or salvage details. Six attacks were reported on Sunday, the most damage recorded in one day since the start of the conflict, and none were reported on Monday; two Iranian officials told Reuters that both the method and the pace of the operation had changed, raising the hit rate, with the stated goal of impeding U.S.-sponsored oil exports through the strait.
Why it matters: The reported strikes and Iran's stated aim of impeding U.S.-sponsored oil exports through the strait make maritime security and oil supply the operative theme of the item.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Yemen's Houthis said on Wednesday they would press on with attacks on airports and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, calling the locations legitimate targets and describing the attacks as retaliation for Saudi strikes on Yemen. The Houthis said they had launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Dhahran, Riyadh airport and an Aramco refinery in Riyadh, and urged shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate Saudi airports and oil facilities. The Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis towards Riyadh on Wednesday.
Why it matters: The targeting of Aramco installations and Riyadh airport places energy security at the centre of the renewed Saudi-Houthi conflict.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Russia shipped 142.7 million barrels of crude and clean petroleum products in September, of which crude accounted for 110.4 million barrels, a pace of about 3.7 million barrels per day. Sanctioned vessels carried 78 million barrels, 55% of the total and 63% of the crude, while EU-owned tankers carried 31.5 million barrels, or 22%. Nine in ten EU-owned barrels were loaded at Baltic ports, and EU-owned loadings fell from 20.5 million barrels in September 1-15 to 11.1 million in September 16-30.
Why it matters: The displacement of EU-owned tonnage by sanctioned and Russian-flagged ships bears directly on the briefing's sanctions and shadow-fleet theme.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis told AFP that Russian diesel sales recently authorised by the United States were unlikely to move the price of the commodity, which has spiked since the start of the Iran war. He said the volumes were not of macroeconomic significance and that there were strong doubts whether Russia could supply them or meet US quality standards. Dombrovskis also said the EU would approach international partners to step up financial support for Ukraine, and that the European Commission would with high likelihood revise its inflation forecast up for 2027; the EU will cap imports of hybrid vehicles from China at 350,000 a year from 2027.
Why it matters: The comments speak to the briefing's energy theme, linking Russian diesel supply, the Iran war and the EU's inflation outlook.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
NATO's 2025 summit in The Hague produced a commitment for member states to invest 5 percent of GDP in defense-related capabilities, including up to 1.5 percent for resilience. The text states that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to direct attacks on Ukraine's physical infrastructure, and that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Baltic subsea infrastructure reinforce the need for resilience spending. It argues that meeting the 1.5 percent mandate across thirty-two member states requires a capability-based framework grounded in Ukraine's defense of its energy system and a system resilient to physical and digital threats.
Why it matters: This matters for energy security because NATO's 1.5 percent resilience commitment could direct long-term investment toward protecting civilian and military energy infrastructure from physical and digital threats.
chokepoint maritime · chokepoint infrastructure · supply chain risk · geostrategy military basing
French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar next week, with his office saying the visit will run from October 19 to 21. He plans to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its effects on energy prices. The four Gulf countries have all had energy sites attacked during the US-Iran war, which has curtailed oil exports through the strait, and Yemen's Houthi rebels are now pushing for control of the Bab Al Mandeb.
Why it matters: The tour puts energy security and freedom of navigation at the centre of French diplomacy at a moment when disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil transport and prices.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Malawi launched a nationwide crackdown on fuel hoarders and black market sellers amid shortages that have left truckers queuing for up to a week and bus fares doubling on some routes. Diesel and petrol have been scarce for weeks because the country lacks the hard currency to buy fuel supplies, prompting the central bank to sell off gold to pay suppliers and the government to return to the IMF for a bailout. Under the new measures, unlicensed resellers face arrest and stations caught hoarding can lose their licence.
Why it matters: It illustrates how energy security in import-dependent economies with thin buffers is shaped by crude prices and hard-currency shortages.
supply chain risk
Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals reported a net profit of $4.73bn for the nine months to September, implying about $2.9bn in the third quarter alone, more than the $1.82bn it earned in the whole first half. Revenue rose 144% year on year to $22.48bn from $9.19bn, and the company swung to profit from a loss of $117.2mn in the same period of 2025. The unaudited results were released on October 13, a day after the company extended the application period for its initial public offering, which seeks about $1.6bn and values the company at about $47bn, from October 13 to October 27.
Why it matters: The profit jump and the concurrent share sale make the refinery a test case for the briefing's energy-markets theme, linking refining margins and crude feedstock constraints to African equity issuance.
green tech supply chain
Ethiopia's federal army retook control of the border town of Zalambessa, where Eritrean troops had been positioned. The army launched a counter-offensive against Tigrayan rebels in the north of the country a week ago, retaking several towns from the TPLF and pushing back Eritrean troops that had entered Ethiopian territory. According to the conflict-analysis organisation Acled, the Eritrean troops stationed there since last Friday had already withdrawn, so no fighting took place.
Why it matters: The advance bears on the conflict theme, since it leaves open whether the Ethiopian army halts at the border in a defensive position or crosses into Eritrea, given Addis Ababa's stated wish for Red Sea access.
geostrategy military basing
Kenya President William Ruto entered a power-sharing arrangement between his ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party and Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The arrangement was intended to sway the second-largest voting bloc of Western Kenya. Ruto’s intentions were evident even before Odinga’s death.
Why it matters: This matters for the politics theme because Ruto’s power-sharing arrangement with ODM moves into Odinga’s Western Kenya support base.
geostrategy military basing
The Canadian junior miner Tsodilo Resources announced on Wednesday 14 October the creation of two new subsidiaries, Tsodilo DRC SARLU in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Namibia Mineral Resources (Pty) Limited in Namibia, adding to its existing presence in Botswana, where it has been exploring the Gcwihaba rare earths project. The company states that it has so far acquired no project or licence in either country and that negotiations to that end are under way. In the DRC it is looking at the Haut-Lomami and Tshopo provinces for lithium, tantalum, niobium and copper, and in Namibia at the Kunene region for copper and polymetallic mineralisation.
Why it matters: The move illustrates how junior miners are repositioning across African jurisdictions to secure access to critical minerals as global supply concerns intensify.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Transnet declared and lifted a short-lived force majeure after a power failure from state-owned utility Eskom affected the Coal Line section between Halfgewonnen C and Hamelfontein stations from October 10 to October 11, disrupting planned train slots between Ermelo and Ogies. Service to Richards Bay Coal Terminal resumed on October 11, and Transnet Freight Rail reported a total loss of 21 Export Coal trains, equating to a volume loss of 174,300 mt. Market participants expected limited price impact from the incident, with steady demand and firmer global seaborne prices cited as the key market drivers.
Why it matters: The incident and the muted price response bear on the briefing's commodity markets theme, since South African thermal coal export capacity supplies Asia-Pacific buyers, particularly India.
supply chain risk · chokepoint infrastructure
Americas
Ukraine accused Elon Musk's SpaceX of limiting Starlink services and crippling its drones, with Ukrainian military officials saying SpaceX interrupted military-grade terminals moving at high speed without warning. Presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said the defense forces received no warning and that several missions were disrupted, while Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski criticized Musk over the move. Russian missiles also struck Ukrainian power stations, and President Volodymyr Zelensky described the attacks as 'ostentatious disrespect' toward Donald Trump.
Why it matters: The episode matters for geoeconomics because it shows how private satellite infrastructure and allied political pressure can shape military capacity and diplomatic leverage.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Asharq Al-Awsat (English)
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argued in a Carnegie Politika commentary published on October 13 that the diesel agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will add little Russian diesel to the global market and earn Moscow only "small fry". Under the deal, Russia is to export 300,000 tonnes of diesel in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1mn tonnes a month after that through April 2027, with a US Treasury licence authorising specified transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027. Vakulenko noted that Russia's exportable surplus has collapsed under Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries, from about 3mn tonnes a month in April to around 325,000 tonnes in September.
Why it matters: The commentary bears on the briefing's sanctions theme, indicating that a US Treasury licence does not by itself restore Russian export volumes while Ukrainian strikes on refineries continue.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Trafigura has secured 100,000 tonnes of lithium products over ten years through an agreement with EnergyX, sourced from the Black Giant project in Antofagasta, Chile, and the Lonestar project in Texas. Trafigura has committed to purchasing 66 per cent of the offtake volume from the first phase of Black Giant and 30 per cent of the offtake volume from the first phase of Lonestar, with a significant portion to supply the US battery industry. EnergyX values the agreement at more than two billion US dollars based on current lithium market prices, and it remains unclear whether Trafigura will pay spot market prices or a fixed price tier.
Why it matters: The agreement illustrates the critical minerals theme, with a trading house contracting long-term battery-grade lithium supply for the US automotive and energy storage industries.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a diesel supply deal with the United States would boost Russia's economy and include direct exports to the United States market, with state agencies and oil companies finalizing supply contracts with American counterparts. Under terms announced by United States President Donald Trump, Russia agreed to release more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately and an additional 500,000 metric tons in November. The United States Treasury Department issued a license authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, while Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev said the deal could pave the way for broader Russian-American economic and investment cooperation.
Why it matters: The arrangement bears on the briefing's energy and sanctions themes, as it eases restrictions on Russian fuel exports while drawing objections from European and Ukrainian officials who argue the revenues fund the Kremlin's war effort.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Ukrainian officials said restrictions imposed on the military satellite communications service Starshield, operated by SpaceX, caused a number of missions to fail and hindered drone operations, reconnaissance and supply on the front. Serhiy Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on weapons technology, said the armed forces received no warning of the restrictions, and that they affected devices using the service while moving faster than 100 miles per hour. Officials in Ukraine's defence ministry accused SpaceX of imposing the restrictions unilaterally, saying they complicate drone missions and limit reconnaissance, logistics and signal relay.
Why it matters: The dispute illustrates the briefing's theme of defence-technology dependence, in which access to commercially operated satellite communications constrains a state's military operations.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
SpaceX imposed new restrictions on its Starlink satellite internet service, prompting the Ukrainian army to cancel drone missions. Ukrainian media reported that security services detected disruptions in Starlink stations overnight, and the new limits cut the maximum speed at which drones retain a reliable internet connection to between 60 and 70 kilometres per hour, affecting mid-range drones including the FP-2, Darts, Hornet and RAM 2, as well as interceptor drones used against Shahed aircraft. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with US radio NPR that the Trump administration hinted it would halt intelligence sharing with Kyiv if it continued striking Russian oil refineries; it remains unclear whether the SpaceX restrictions are linked to that pressure or whether they are temporary.
Why it matters: The episode shows how commercial satellite communications have become a chokepoint in the war, tying technology dependence directly to Ukrainian operational capacity.
supply chain risk · geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry