Diesel shortage to persist into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA warns
The International Energy Agency said the global diesel shortage triggered by the Iran war will persist well into next year, with depleted inventories unlikely to recover until the second half of 2027. Combined net gas oil exports from the Middle East and Russia plunged more than 60 per cent annually to 820,000 barrels per day last month, a loss of 1.3 million bpd, while US diesel stocks ended September at a 14-year seasonal low. The IEA cut its 2027 oil demand forecast by 630,000 bpd and its global economic growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points to 3 per cent.
Why it matters: The agency's warning ties the war's energy-security shock to refined-product shortages, depleted inventories and a downgraded growth outlook, showing how supply disruption in the Gulf transmits into wider economic costs.