Tankers: More Complications Ahead for Diesel Cargoes?
Gibson assessed that the diesel licence is unlikely to meaningfully ease the global diesel shortage but carries a strong political message, while Russian export volumes remain constrained by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and by Moscow's July export ban. After the US agreement, Russia began lifting restrictions and authorised immediate release of 500kt for export globally, with planned supplies to the US, but preliminary trade data show October exports only modestly above July-September levels. Gibson also said the licence does not cover sanctioned vessels, bunkering or the price cap, and that EU and UK rules remain unchanged, leaving legal and insurance constraints on cargoes above the cap.
Why it matters: The licence's limited reach bears on energy security, because Russian diesel volumes remain constrained by refinery attacks and sanctions even as Washington seeks to redirect some cargoes to the US.