Value chains & chokepoints
A study by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) estimates China's average green hydrogen production cost at $120 per megawatt-hour, while Germany can use imports costing up to about $175 and U.S. production averages about $225. The study compares supply costs and production potential in China, Germany, Japan and the United States, and says China and the United States could meet future hydrogen needs through domestic production. It attributes China's cost advantage to favorable wind and solar sites, lower investment costs in renewable plants and electrolysers, and lower labor and financing costs.
Why it matters: The finding bears on the energy transition theme by making green-hydrogen production costs and supply security a factor in locational competitiveness.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Western luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers on price and quality as Beijing looks to shed the shoddy reputation of “made in China.” Chinese companies are gaining global market share in industries including high-precision lenses and pharmaceuticals, drawing interest from US and European investors, while a Council on Foreign Relations expert argued that similarity in the export baskets of China and the West could add to already high trade tensions.
Why it matters: The developments bear on trade tensions, because the cited expert argues that converging Chinese and Western export baskets could add to already high friction.
supply chain risk · great power rivalry
DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 applies a three-step framework to a shipowner managing five very large crude carriers, comparing a high-sulphur heavy fuel oil and scrubber strategy with a dual-fuel LNG phase-in from 2026 to 2050. The case study stress-tests both strategies under slow- and rapid-transition scenarios, assessing break-even daily rates and HAZID-based risk. In the rapid transition scenario, the scrubber strategy’s break-even rate rises to about USD 167,000/day by 2049, while the LNG strategy reaches about USD 144,000/day.
Why it matters: The case study shows how energy transition risk can be combined with cost assessment to compare fuel and technology pathways at fleet level.
green tech supply chain
The United Nations marks its annual disarmament week to encourage military de-escalation, while most states are currently strengthening their defence, as in Taiwan and South Africa. Turkey is among the countries that have made locally produced armament a strategic priority, with a sector of more than 3,500 companies making drones, vehicles, missiles and electronics. These are sold to NATO members such as Poland and Romania as well as to countries in the Gulf, Asia and Africa, including Nigeria and Morocco.
Why it matters: The item bears on the arms trade and defence-industrial policy theme: Turkish-produced systems are supplied both to NATO members and to buyers in the Gulf, Asia and Africa.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
China announced export controls on tunnel-boring machines, including shield machines and hard-rock borers, and on critical components such as cutterheads and main drive systems, under a two-tier approval system taking effect on November 18 that requires licences for destinations Beijing calls sensitive but has not publicly identified. In India, officials plan to consult industry stakeholders on limiting the impact, while a 2020 Indian Express investigation cited industry estimates that nearly 90 percent of tunnel-boring machines deployed in the country had links to China. New Delhi is preparing a $1.2 billion manufacturing incentive programme, with tunnel-boring machines among the priority products.
Why it matters: The measure makes export controls on capital equipment a lever in the India-China rivalry, linking infrastructure supply chains directly to military mobility along the disputed Himalayan border.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk · great power rivalry
Taiwan holds mayoral and magistrate elections on November 28. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is within reach of historic upsets in strongholds of the opposition Kuomintang, and key DPP wins would boost President Lai Ching-te’s 2028 reelection campaign while portending harder military coercion from Beijing.
Why it matters: The election matters for the briefing’s global security theme because the text ties local results to the 2028 presidential race and to possible Chinese military and economic pressure.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
An Indian project to build a giant dam in the Himalayas, intended to counter the effects of a large Chinese project on the same river, triggered violent protests in Arunachal Pradesh that turned into clashes with police and the burning of government buildings. The Siang Upper Multipurpose Project has a planned capacity of 11,200 megawatts, and the state hydropower company NHPC is involved in its studies. Indian media reports said protesters set fire to a company office and a police station, and police sources said about 40 security personnel were injured, while authorities imposed restrictions on gatherings in the affected areas. The project has not yet reached the dam construction stage; preliminary studies are ongoing and no final decision has been taken on implementation.
Why it matters: The unrest sets transboundary water security between India and China against domestic contestation over land, livelihoods and indigenous rights in a border state that Beijing also claims.
water · great power rivalry
China’s Liaoning carrier group and the USS Theodore Roosevelt may be in the Philippine Sea at the same time. BNC reported that the carrier group reached about 25 nautical miles (46km) east-southeast of Balut Island, the southernmost point of the Philippines, before sailing northeast on Friday, positioning the warships past the first island chain. The four-strong Liaoning strike group includes the Type 055 large guided-missile destroyers Wuxi and Anshan, and the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer Huainan.
Why it matters: The reported carrier movements bear on maritime security around the first island chain and the Philippine Sea.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
The commander of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, made a low-flying tour of the Strait of Hormuz in a US Army Chinook helicopter, accompanied by an attack helicopter. He overflew two unladen vessels and stated that primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz remain free and clear of Iranian sea mines. The IRGC has stepped up attacks on shipping in the Strait in recent weeks, but these attacks do not appear to have diminished the flow of vessels through the Strait, while CENTCOM claims that 95% of vessels are making safe transits.
Why it matters: The inspection flight bears on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, where IRGC attacks and mine-clearance operations affect transit risk.
chokepoint maritime · geostrategy military basing
Government confirmation on 19 October established that Ghost Shark uncrewed submarines will be able to lay up to 12 mines at a time. The article states that Australia’s ability to use the capability depends on political, legal and operational protocols for timely mining, and it examines constraints including transit speed, northern geography, warning and authorisation.
Why it matters: The item bears on maritime security and deterrence: the utility of autonomous mining depends less on the hardware than on decision speed, legal authority and partner consent in the northern archipelago.
geostrategy military basing · chokepoint maritime
More than five years after India launched an ₹18,100-crore production-linked incentive scheme to establish 50 GWh of advanced chemistry cell capacity, the Ministry of Heavy Industries said in February that only 1 GWh of the 40 GWh awarded had been installed, at Ola’s Krishnagiri plant. No beneficiary had claimed an incentive under the scheme, according to the ministry’s reply to Parliament. In July the ministry issued a tender for large battery systems, and the bid deadline was extended to November 10.
Why it matters: The slow installation record illustrates how industrial policy targets for battery cells can outpace domestic supply-chain capacity.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
India and Russia are planning the first pilot voyage on the Northern Sea Route for 2027, the 80th year of the beginning of diplomatic relations between the two countries. A dedicated working group established in 2024 within the Intergovernmental Commission has held three meetings, the latest on 13 August 2026 in Arkhangelsk, and agreed to organise a pilot voyage between Russian and Indian ports via the NSR in 2027. Rosatom, the NSR infrastructure operator since 2018, said there is strong interest among Indian partners, and sources said India-Russia cargo traffic via the route could potentially reach 5 million tonnes annually.
Why it matters: The planned voyage relates to the briefing's energy trade theme, since the text ties the NSR to faster transport of goods and hydrocarbons and to India-Russia trade in crude oil, LNG, fertilizers and critical minerals.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · critical minerals
Both chambers of Algeria's Parliament approved on Sunday 25 October 2026 the sending of troops to Niger, with the lower house voting unanimously for the deployment of Army units. According to Algerian media sources, the units could be tasked with securing oil installations and investments by the state hydrocarbons company Sonatrach in northern Niger. Algeria has in recent months supplied four military helicopters and deployed combat aircraft after an attempted military mutiny in August.
Why it matters: The approval makes energy security a stated rationale for Algeria's first military deployment abroad since 1973, a shift from its non-intervention doctrine.
geostrategy military basing · great power rivalry
Also reported by: The Straits Times
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said Egypt will not accept a fait accompli or a compromise of its water security, and that the presence of the Nile's sources within a state's territory does not give that state the right to unilateral control over a resource shared by several peoples. Speaking at the opening of the ninth Cairo Water Week, he said any bet on Egypt accepting a fait accompli or giving up its water security is a losing bet, and stressed respect for all Nile Basin states' right to development exercised responsibly without harming others. He said Egypt has pursued cooperation in energy, agriculture and irrigation projects in southern Nile Basin states, and that prior notification, exchange of studies and consultation are tools to support financing and confidence rather than to obstruct development.
Why it matters: The statement places water security at the centre of Egypt's foreign policy and ties Nile Basin development rights to cooperation, financing and confidence-building.
water
Also reported by: Bing News: سد النهضة مياه النيل
Gibson assessed that the diesel licence is unlikely to meaningfully ease the global diesel shortage but carries a strong political message, while Russian export volumes remain constrained by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and by Moscow's July export ban. After the US agreement, Russia began lifting restrictions and authorised immediate release of 500kt for export globally, with planned supplies to the US, but preliminary trade data show October exports only modestly above July-September levels. Gibson also said the licence does not cover sanctioned vessels, bunkering or the price cap, and that EU and UK rules remain unchanged, leaving legal and insurance constraints on cargoes above the cap.
Why it matters: The licence's limited reach bears on energy security, because Russian diesel volumes remain constrained by refinery attacks and sanctions even as Washington seeks to redirect some cargoes to the US.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Kpler announced on October 20 that it is teaming up with Airbus to develop a reliable system for tracking ship movements, with the Strait of Hormuz identified as the area where it will deliver the earliest and greatest dividend. The system is described as passive, using satellite imagery and artificial intelligence-aided tools to detect and identify individual vessel movements, in contrast to active systems such as AIS that can compromise the location of targets.
Why it matters: The venture bears on maritime security, because reliable tracking in the Strait of Hormuz affects both vessel safety and the commercial intelligence available to commodity and energy traders.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has made April 2027 the new baseline for resuming LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, after previously treating that date as the worst case. It compares this path with three alternatives: full operation of undamaged liquefaction units in October 2027, supply restrictions continuing to end-2028 at below 2 billion cubic metres per month, and recovery to 50% of pre-crisis levels from January 2027. The institute projects that the two most restrictive supply scenarios raise the Dutch TTF European gas price to $32.05 and $31.35 per million British thermal units in the second quarter of 2027.
Why it matters: The scenarios matter for energy security because the text shows the market rebalancing through lower demand and imports rather than additional supply.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk
Anwaar Ul Haq Kakar, a former prime minister of Pakistan, said maximalist negotiating positions by both the US and Iran have prevented an end to the Middle East conflict. Pakistan brought Iranian and US officials together for the highest-level diplomatic contacts in decades, and in June the two countries agreed in Islamabad on a plan to end the war, but the conflict continued at a lower intensity. Kakar said US withdrawals of diplomatic staff from the region indicate that the US and Israel could be preparing to resume military strikes, and that renewed fighting would hit Pakistan badly economically.
Why it matters: The remarks make conflict escalation the central risk, with geoeconomic spillovers for Pakistan through energy prices and inflation.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls · chokepoint maritime
Sub-Saharan Africa
Félix Tshisekedi made his first official political appearance since Joseph Kabila took the head of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, derived from the AFC-M23, addressing his parliamentary majority in Kinshasa on Saturday 24 October. He accused his predecessor of turning arms against a country he led for eighteen years and said the situation was under control, while calling on his troops to remain united amid a motion of no confidence against the agriculture minister. He also called for spending restraint to finance the war effort in the east and announced that national dialogue facilitators, including two African Union co-facilitators, would be designated the following week.
Why it matters: The confrontation between the president and his predecessor over a rebellion derived from the AFC-M23 bears directly on political risk in the Democratic Republic of Congo ahead of the 2028 electoral horizon.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
Eighteen months after the April 2025 peace agreement, the gold-producing Tibesti region in northern Chad has returned to violence. On 14 October, armed clashes broke out between the regular army and the Miski self-defence committee, killing at least two officers of the mining brigade and wounding about ten people; the army has since been massively deployed in Tibesti. The self-defence committee attributes the crisis to unfulfilled state commitments on appointments and integration and to poor management of the monitoring committee; the point of no return was reached after outside gold miners, including a cousin of the Chadian president, entered a prohibited gold zone and the cousin died.
Why it matters: The clashes make resource politics central to Chad's northern security, as competition over gold zones and permits underpins renewed armed mobilisation.
critical minerals
Americas
Former US president Barack Obama campaigned in Ohio and Michigan on Saturday for Democratic candidates ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, criticizing Donald Trump and blaming his administration for the rising cost of living and for an "unnecessary war" with Iran. In Cleveland he rallied for Sherrod Brown, and in Michigan he campaigned for Abdul El-Sayed. Trump responded on Truth Social by urging Michigan voters to choose Republican Mike Rogers and criticizing Obama over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Why it matters: The rallies show how the Iran war and oil prices are entering US politics ahead of the midterms.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Also reported by: Taipei Times
The Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes left Russia's port of Primorsk on Oct 22 carrying Russian diesel and is expected to reach New York around Nov 6-7, according to commodity shipping data. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Oct 23 that the first tanker had set off to its buyers and that subsequent shipments would continue on a regular basis, without naming the vessel or the buyers. The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control granted on Oct 9 a sanctions waiver to Russia allowing the sale, delivery and import of Russian-origin diesel fuel, including into the US, and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the first such cargo is expected to carry about 40,000 metric tons.
Why it matters: The shipment tests how far US sanctions relief can redirect Russian energy trade flows, with a European diesel trader describing the volumes as a displacement from Brazil rather than an increase in overall flows.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he has a "decision to make" on Iran, describing the choice as whether to "finish it off" or "make a deal". He later told reporters there would be "not a strike today", after having said he would not strike Iran until after the midterm elections on November 3. The war is nearing its eighth month, the US has sent a third aircraft carrier group towards the Arabian Gulf, and Admiral Brad Cooper visited the Strait of Hormuz, where Centcom said US forces had cleared shipping lanes of sea mines and helped Gulf allies export more than 1.5 billion barrels since summer.
Why it matters: The item bears on energy security through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf crude exports.
great power rivalry · chokepoint maritime
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said 99 per cent of the India-US interim trade deal is complete and an announcement could follow within weeks, but the pact remains stalled over Washington’s insistence on higher import tariffs, sources said. New Delhi is unwilling to accept anything more than the additional 10 per cent levy Indian exports currently face, and is weighing domestic political implications of agricultural concessions ahead of US mid-term elections. Sources said India is inclined to wait until the mid-term elections are over before deciding how to proceed.
Why it matters: The impasse shows how tariff levels and US electoral timing shape trade policy, tying the interim deal to domestic political calculations in both countries.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that a resumption of war with Israel and the United States would not change Iran's positions, during a televised event in Tehran. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington "may do another little Epic Fury," referring to the US-Israeli campaign that began on February 28. An April 8 ceasefire ended the most intense fighting, and a June memorandum of understanding on a permanent settlement later unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations.
Why it matters: The remarks bear on energy security because the Strait of Hormuz is described in the text as a key route for global energy supplies.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
The US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President Donald Trump said Sunday he is weighing military action to "finish it off," while Tehran warned that American strikes wouldn't alter its position. With US and Israeli elections looming, domestic political pressures are factoring into military planning; The New York Times wrote that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could decide to launch one last strike if defeated Tuesday, and that Trump may want to demonstrate that his authority as commander in chief is undiminished.
Why it matters: The warning bears on Middle East security, where electoral pressures in the US and Israel are feeding into military planning toward Iran.
great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
US President Donald Trump said Iran is the "worst state sponsor of terrorism" and that preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon is a priority for Washington, even if oil prices rise. He described higher oil prices as a "cheap price" for preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and said oil volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz had reached unprecedented levels. CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper, speaking during an aerial tour over the strait, said the main transit routes remain completely free of Iranian naval mines and that the US military has helped facilitate the export of more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since the summer.
Why it matters: The statements bear on energy security and the risk that military escalation between Washington and Tehran disrupts shipping and global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · supply chain risk