Testing fleet strategies against an uncertain energy transition
DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 applies a three-step framework to a shipowner managing five very large crude carriers, comparing a high-sulphur heavy fuel oil and scrubber strategy with a dual-fuel LNG phase-in from 2026 to 2050. The case study stress-tests both strategies under slow- and rapid-transition scenarios, assessing break-even daily rates and HAZID-based risk. In the rapid transition scenario, the scrubber strategy’s break-even rate rises to about USD 167,000/day by 2049, while the LNG strategy reaches about USD 144,000/day.
Why it matters: The case study shows how energy transition risk can be combined with cost assessment to compare fuel and technology pathways at fleet level.