Hormuz crisis unsettles LNG market, with three scenarios to 2028
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has made April 2027 the new baseline for resuming LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, after previously treating that date as the worst case. It compares this path with three alternatives: full operation of undamaged liquefaction units in October 2027, supply restrictions continuing to end-2028 at below 2 billion cubic metres per month, and recovery to 50% of pre-crisis levels from January 2027. The institute projects that the two most restrictive supply scenarios raise the Dutch TTF European gas price to $32.05 and $31.35 per million British thermal units in the second quarter of 2027.
Why it matters: The scenarios matter for energy security because the text shows the market rebalancing through lower demand and imports rather than additional supply.