Geostrategic Daily

Foreign Affairs · 4 September 2026

How Taiwan Can Win the Strait

Taiwan's current shipbuilding plans focus on large surface combatants, including a new 7,000-ton warship and up to 12 3,000-ton light frigates, which are vulnerable in the narrow Taiwan Strait due to advanced Chinese surveillance and attack capabilities. The article argues that these large ships are costly and easily targeted, and that Taiwan should instead build smaller, stealthier corvettes of 700 to 1,000 tons, armed with missiles and drones, to better survive and attack a Chinese invasion fleet. Historical examples, such as the Falklands War and Operation Praying Mantis, illustrate the risks of large ships in confined waters, while Ukraine's Black Sea campaign shows the effectiveness of dispersed defenses.

Why it matters: This analysis directly addresses the theme of military balance and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, arguing that Taiwan's naval force structure must adapt to technological changes to maintain a credible defense against Chinese amphibious invasion.

chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing

Record

Source
Foreign Affairs (tier 1)
Published
4 September 2026
Link
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/how-taiwan-can-win-strait
Content depth
full
Regions
asia-pacific
Subregions
china, taiwan
Actors
Taiwan, China
Edition
2026-09-05

Grounding

Verbatim spans from the source text that support the summary above.

Taiwan’s current shipbuilding plans include replacing an aging surface fleet with large and expensive new ships
Taiwan’s large surface ships are now a liability
Taipei can take advantage of this mismatch by replacing its destroyers and frigates with a greater number of smaller surface combatants