Today's items converge on a single axis: the securitisation of supply chains. In Asia-Pacific, Saudi Arabia's deepening tech ties with China and Taiwan's naval rethink both reflect a region recalibrating around great-power competition. Europe, meanwhile, faces direct energy chokepoint pressure at Hormuz and indirect exposure via Russian fuel imports routed through Morocco, while Sub-Saharan Africa's push for local value addition—from Kenya's Tata Chemicals order to Zimbabwe's green industrialisation call—shows resource-rich states asserting control. Across the Americas, Chinese rare earth export fears and US state stakes in critical firms underscore the same logic: control over minerals, technology, and routes is now strategic leverage.
Value chains & chokepoints
Benchmark's Capex Briefing analysis finds that operating lithium supply must expand by over three million tonnes LCE to meet 2040 base demand, requiring approximately $64 billion in capital spending. Operating supply in 2026 is 1.7 million tonnes LCE, and demand is expected to grow at a 7.3% CAGR, driven by EV adoption and battery energy storage. The analysis notes that less conventional projects, such as direct lithium extraction and sedimentary sources, will play a larger role, with their combined share of production doubling to 40% by 2040.
Why it matters: This underscores the theme of critical minerals supply chains, highlighting the scale of investment and technological shifts needed to meet long-term demand.
critical minerals · green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
Ecuador's former president Lenín Moreno was sentenced to five years in prison for corruption related to a China-built dam. The sentencing occurred in Quito, where Moreno and his wife Rocio Gonzalez were seen leaving the National Court of Justice.
Why it matters: This case highlights the theme of China-Global South infrastructure projects and their associated governance risks.
green tech supply chain · great power rivalry
Asia-Pacific
A senior Saudi official pledged to deepen ties with China, touting a 'great wave' of scientific innovation from China, at the LEAP technology event in Riyadh. Deals announced include WeRide adding up to 10,000 robotaxis in Riyadh, HUMAIN commissioning an Arabic-language model from MiniMax, and Tencent Cloud securing a Saudi operating license. Lenovo plans to mass-produce a laptop in Riyadh by year-end.
Why it matters: This illustrates the theme of technology competition, as Saudi Arabia becomes a focal point for China's tech outreach, challenging US dominance in the Global South.
great power rivalry · green tech supply chain
Taiwan's current shipbuilding plans focus on large surface combatants, including a new 7,000-ton warship and up to 12 3,000-ton light frigates, which are vulnerable in the narrow Taiwan Strait due to advanced Chinese surveillance and attack capabilities. The article argues that these large ships are costly and easily targeted, and that Taiwan should instead build smaller, stealthier corvettes of 700 to 1,000 tons, armed with missiles and drones, to better survive and attack a Chinese invasion fleet. Historical examples, such as the Falklands War and Operation Praying Mantis, illustrate the risks of large ships in confined waters, while Ukraine's Black Sea campaign shows the effectiveness of dispersed defenses.
Why it matters: This analysis directly addresses the theme of military balance and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, arguing that Taiwan's naval force structure must adapt to technological changes to maintain a credible defense against Chinese amphibious invasion.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · geostrategy military basing
Europe, Eurasia & MENA
Four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine a day earlier and below the 10-day average of about 15, according to Kpler data. The figure excludes vessels with transponders turned off. Oil prices were heading for their steepest weekly gain since mid-July due to rising tension and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of energy security and supply risks, as reduced shipping through a key chokepoint underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions on global oil flows.
chokepoint maritime · supply chain risk · sanctions export controls
Sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity have led Russia to import gasoline and diesel at scale for the first time since the war began. Shipping data analysis estimates total Russian imports at 3.85 million barrels across July–August 2026, with gasoline and blending components accounting for 3.1 million barrels. A significant share of this fuel is UK- and EU-origin product moved through blending and storage infrastructure in Morocco, particularly at Tanger Med, where EU and UK gasoline is received, blended, and re-exported to Russia.
Why it matters: This highlights potential exposure for EU/UK oil traders and tank storage operators whose product enters third-country blending infrastructure, as regulators target facilitators of sanctions evasion.
sanctions export controls · supply chain risk
Russia is proposing a $400 billion investment program to develop the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, with 93% of funding expected from private sources. The project includes 271 projects and aims to link the Northern Sea Route with railways, rivers, ports, and industrial projects. However, Russia's record shows difficulty in meeting targets, as cargo volumes in 2024 were less than half the target, and Western sanctions have disrupted projects like Arctic LNG 2.
Why it matters: This highlights the theme of Arctic geopolitics and the role of foreign investment in Russia's strategic infrastructure ambitions.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
The war around the Strait of Hormuz entered a tanker-for-tanker phase, with the US striking Iranian state tankers in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping, while a laden VLCC sits abandoned and listing off Oman. SMM, Europe's largest shipping exhibition, ran in Hamburg, and SplashTech published its first magazine. Inmarsat Maritime survey found machinery failure is the biggest cause of maritime incidents, accounting for about 60% of cases, and Q-CTRL demonstrated quantum navigation in a Coral Sea trial, positioning a vessel within about one nautical mile without GPS.
Why it matters: This relates to the theme of geopolitical risk and supply chain resilience, as the Hormuz conflict and the rise of quantum navigation highlight vulnerabilities in maritime shipping.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kenya's President William Ruto ordered Tata Chemicals to leave the country, accusing it of failing to create jobs and process minerals locally. The order follows a directive from his mining minister five weeks earlier to suspend operations at one plant, reportedly for regulatory non-compliance, which the company disputed. Ruto said the government is seeking new investors to take over operations and establish manufacturing plants.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of industrialization and local value addition in Africa's economic policy.
critical minerals · supply chain risk
Zimbabwe, the United Nations System in Zimbabwe, and the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) called for accelerated green industrialisation in Southern Africa during a workshop in Harare from 3–4 September 2026. The call emphasised moving beyond policy declarations to practical, investment-ready solutions that create jobs, strengthen regional value chains, and build climate-resilient economies. The workshop validated regional studies on innovative climate action and involved government, private sector, MSMEs, academia, and other stakeholders.
Why it matters: This call underscores the theme of climate-resilient economic transformation, linking green industrialisation to structural change and sustainable development in the region.
green tech supply chain · supply chain risk
At least 37 people died on September 3, 2026, in southeastern Nigeria after inhaling toxic petroleum fumes during an attempted theft on an oil pipeline near Okrika, in the outskirts of Port Harcourt. The victims were young people trying to siphon crude oil during a cargo transfer. Several people are still missing, and the death toll could rise, according to the Centre for the Defense of Youth and the Environment, which reported bodies floating on the river.
Why it matters: This incident highlights the recurring theme of energy security and the human cost of oil theft in Nigeria's Niger Delta, where pipeline sabotage and illegal siphoning continue despite security efforts.
supply chain risk
Americas
Some Chinese rare earth suppliers are refusing to export to American companies, fearing Beijing's sanctions. China dominates nearly 70% of global rare earth production and 99% of refining. The move comes ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington on September 24, 2026, and follows China's sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance in early August 2026.
Why it matters: This highlights the ongoing trade tensions and strategic use of rare earths as leverage in US-China relations, a key theme in the briefing.
critical minerals · sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · supply chain risk
Also reported by: Bing News: China Africa investment, Bing News: المعادن النادرة الصين تصدير
The US government holds stakes in roughly 30 firms worth US$26.7 billion, including 9.9 per cent of Intel, a golden share in US Steel, and US$400 million in MP Materials. In 2025, Nvidia and AMD gave up 15 per cent of their China chip sale revenues for export licences. The National Security Science and Technology Strategy, unveiled on August 18, marks a shift toward treating technological leadership as a security objective, with tighter scrutiny of foreign investment and research security as statecraft.
Why it matters: This reflects the theme of state capitalism and the securitisation of technology policy in the global economic order.
sanctions export controls · great power rivalry · critical minerals
The US and Britain, France and Germany are pushing the IAEA board to pass a resolution reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years. The resolution would follow up on a June 12 resolution declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. Iran has not allowed IAEA inspectors to return to bombed nuclear sites or verify its enriched uranium stocks, some enriched to 60% purity.
Why it matters: This escalation reflects the ongoing nuclear non-proliferation standoff, a key theme in the briefing.
great power rivalry · sanctions export controls
US President Donald Trump downplayed the military confrontation with Iran, calling it a 'simple matter' for the United States. He said the US is conducting 'intermittent strikes' but is not currently fighting, and compared the conflict favorably to the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars. Trump reiterated that US operations prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Why it matters: This bears on the theme of US-Iran military escalation and its domestic political context ahead of the midterm elections.
chokepoint maritime · great power rivalry