A long war will permanently damage oil demand
Crude prices have returned above $100 a barrel, and major banks and the US Energy Information Administration raised their 2027 price forecasts. S&P Global Energy concluded that Middle Eastern crude production will not return to prewar levels by the end of 2027. JP Morgan's Natasha Kaneva said oil demand has run about 5 million barrels per day below last year and could fall to its lowest since 2019 if the Strait of Hormuz remains semi-closed.
Why it matters: This matters for the energy transition theme because it suggests war-induced demand destruction, not deliberate policy, may be accelerating the peak in oil consumption.